January 30, 2009 08:52 PM UTC

Poll Shows Ritter Vulnerable in 2010...If GOP Has Right Candidate

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• by: Colorado Pols

According to poll results from Public Policy Polling, Gov. Bill Ritter has dipped below 50% in approval ratings, but still would beat two potential challengers:

A new survey from Public Policy Polling finds that Democratic Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter would beat possible Republican candidates Tom Tancredo and Bob Beauprez.

Ritter led Beauprez, the former Congressman, 46% to 40%. The governor held a 52-38% advantage over Tancredo, also a former Congressman.

Ritter’s approval rating, split at 47/40 according to this survey, has decreased a little bit since December 2008, when nearly half of respondents approved of his job performance and only 36% disapproved.[Pols emphasis]

This negative change may be a result of declining approval among Hispanics in light of Ritter’s decision to replace Ken Salazar with Michael Bennet. 48% of Hispanics reported disapproving of Ritter, with 44% percent saying they approved.

Before the appointment, Ritter held a 54/30 approval rating among Hispanics.

“Bill Ritter would probably be re-elected if the election was now,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “But, he’s certainly not unbeatable, and it could be a competitive race next year with the right Republican candidate.”

What does this all mean? Ritter continues to benefit from incredible good fortune as a politician. Despite low approval ratings, he’s in decent shape heading into 2010 because Republicans have no obvious challenger.

More importantly, it means that Ritter is walking a fine line; he needs to do a lot of work to shore up his base to make sure that he can hold off any potential GOP battle. The matchups between potential candidates aren’t particularly relevant at this point – what is more important is Ritter’s approval rating. Because as Bob Beauprez learned in 2006, starting a campaign with strong negative ratings is really tough to overcome.

Click for complete memo and cross-tabs (PDF).