August 10, 2008 06:14 AM UTC

Dan Willis's Predictions

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• by: Dan Willis

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

POST ELECTION UPDATE: I made 27 predictions and got 22 of them right. 81%, quite bit lower than my usual average

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I have made a habit of making election predictions for several cycles now. So here we go for the 2008 primaries (these are who I think will win, not necessarily who I favor):

Democrats

CD2: Joan Fitz-Gerald

JD3: Frank Rybalid

JD6: Todd Risberg

SD18: Rollie Heath

SD35: Joyce Foster

HD2: Mark Ferrandino

HD6: Lois Court

HD8: too close to call

HD9: Joe Miklosi

HD24: Sue Shaffer

HD30: Mark Nicastle

HD44: Shelly Tokerud

HD62: Rocky White

Republicans

CD1: George Lilly

CD5: Doug Lamborn

CD6: Mike Coffman

JD4: Dan May

JD12: Lawrence Orr

JD13: Robert Watson

JD18: George Brachler

SD4: Mark Scheffel

SD26: Lauri Clapp

HD6: Joshua Sharf

HD15: Don Waller

HD17: Kit Roupe

HD18: Tom Gallagher (update: well I likely missed this: Gallagher dropped out, making Szot the winner)

HD45: Wouldn’t know either of them if they walked up and slapped me

HD48: Glen Vaad

HD57: Dan Korkowski

Dem CD2: I think when push come to shove Joan’s GOTV machine will best Jared’s money. I also think Shafroth will take more from Jared than from Joan.

Dem HD6: I think this is actually divided between Lois Court and Liz Adams with Josh Hanfling in 3rd. Ultimately it comes down to GOTV and Lois is very experienced with it so I think she will sqeek it out.

Dem HD8: A friend of mine summed this race up best: “It’s gonna be 35-33-32, but don’t ask me who is going to get which”. All 3 candidates seem to have staked pretty equal portions of the district where they will do well. Who has the better GOTV will decide this race (and I don’t knoew the answer to that).

Dem HD9: Paul Rosenthal is a very good friend of mine, but from what I have seen (admittedly not very much) Joe Miklosi seems to have the slightly more organized campaign. If I am going to be wrong on one of these, this is the mostly likely.

GOP CD5: Lamborn would have lost a one-on-one with either Crank or Rayburn, but in 3-way he will go on to a sure-to-be pointless 2nd term.

GOP CD6: Even the expression about the live boy or dead girl doesn’t apply here. Coffman himself could die tomorrow and still win by 10 points.

GOP SD26: I have no desire to see Lauri Clapp back in the legislature, but it will have to be the Dem to take her out.

GOP HD15: I simply refuse to believe the voters in HD15 are cruel enough to inflict Doug Bruce on the rest of us like the vacancy committee did.