July 27, 2008 06:18 PM UTC

Energy: A Democratic Achilles' Heel?

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• by: Colorado Pols

General George Patton once observed that in order to beat a tough opponent, you have to “hold them by the nose while kicking them in the ass.”

Keep that in mind while the Washington Post reports this morning:

Four-dollar-a-gallon gas has done something that few Republicans thought possible just a few months ago: given them hope.

United behind a renewed push for offshore oil drilling, Republican members of Congress and the party’s presumptive presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain, think they have found their best political issue of the 2008 campaign.

McCain strategists and GOP leaders on Capitol Hill say the issue, which polls suggest Americans favor by healthy margins, lets Republicans demonstrate their plans to address the anger over high gas prices as well as the broader economic distress that many voters feel.

Because most Democrats, including Sen. Barack Obama, are opposed to increased drilling, McCain and the GOP have already begun casting their rivals as unconcerned about gas prices and unwilling to wean the country from foreign oil…

In case you haven’t noticed, it’s working. Polls here in Colorado in the last week have shown, at least tentatively, that the combination of high gas prices and GOP demands for “increased exploration” offshore and of oil shale in western Colorado have put Democrats on a most unexpected defensive. In the Colorado Senate race, Democrat Mark Udall was shown to be dead even (in one admittedly outlier poll) with GOP opponent Bob Schaffer, with respondents overwhelmingly identifying energy policy as their most important issue–displacing the Iraq war, and strong evidence that the Republican framing of the issue is now widely accepted. If these numbers hold up over the summer it could represent a major change in the electoral dynamic both here and nationally, which has previously been understood to strongly favor Democrats.

The Post continues:

Republicans have also sought to gain traction on the issue by portraying Obama and Democrats as the “do nothing” party when it comes to solving the nation’s energy needs.

Obama aides say the Democrat supports legislation that would encourage oil companies to drill in offshore areas that are already approved but not used. And aides cite his plan for a $20 billion economic stimulus package that would provide rebates that people could use to pay for gasoline as well as efforts to crack down on oil speculators who drive up prices on the world market.

“There’s a real choice in this election between John McCain’s promise to continue the Bush approach of trying to drill our way out of our energy crisis . . . and Barack Obama’s plan to provide meaningful short-term relief for our families and to make a historic investment in alternative energy,” said Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan.

Republicans say that is not enough.

More than 100 House Republicans marched onto the Capitol steps this week to introduce the American Energy Act, which includes drilling offshore and in the oil shale of Western mountain regions but also contains increased tax benefits for businesses and families that reduce their energy consumption.

Republicans say their embrace of more domestic drilling and a dramatic increase in funding for the development of renewable fuels puts them squarely in line with voters, who polls show support both policy initiatives, especially when linked to concern about years of gas at $4 a gallon or more…

Democrats reject the idea that Republicans and McCain have made any inroads on the energy issue. Saying they feel no pressure to give in on drilling legislation, Democratic leaders said their polling data show that the public views President Bush as responsible for high gas prices and that none of their candidates for the House or Senate have suffered any political damage from the constant GOP attacks.

Democrats point out that voter support for drilling plummets when surveys note that drilling would not produce new, usable gas for years and would not immediately affect gas prices at the pump.

It’s true that new oil and gas exploration will take years to come online as marketable production, and Democrats insistently remind you that a very large percentage of existing exploration leases, both offshore and here in Colorado, are not being used by the oil companies that own them. We get this, and agree that the intense push by Republicans for huge new leases has more to do with patron oil companies trying to lock up a dominant market position for decades to come than it does any real desire to “increase domestic production.” It’s a very cynical and exploitative game the GOP is playing while ordinary consumers greatly suffer, and oil companies reap mind-boggling profits–a portion of which will help elect those selfsame Republicans this November.

But which story will the voters buy? The numbers suggest that is a question Democrats had better answer very carefully. A poll follows.

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