October 19, 2005 08:00 AM UTC

Big Line Changes

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• by: Colorado Pols

We put our heads together, and listened to your heads, and came up with a new batch of line changes. The results are in…

In the race for governor, we couldnt come up with anything better than a tie right now. Democrat Bill Ritter sits at the top of the line, but weve assigned the same odds to him that we gave Republicans Marc Holtzman and Bob Beauprez. Heres why:

According to a Denver Post poll on Sunday, Ritter would defeat both Holtzman and Beauprez if the election were held tomorrow. Thats the good news for Ritter. The bad news is that there is still a lot of talk that another Democrat will enter the race, and while Ritters fundraising in Q3 was strong, he still lags far behind both Holtzman and Beauprez. Ritter is off to a good start one year out from the general election, but he still has too many significant hurdles to overcome to make him a real favorite.

Beauprez nearly passed the $1 million mark in fundraising in Q3 (though his campaign claims they have passed the mark since Sept. 30), and according to the Rocky Mountain News, Beauprez would defeat Holtzman in a primary 47 percent to 13 percent  a decided advantage. Beauprez also leads all three candidates in name ID, according to the News poll, which would be great news if it wasnt for the poll from the Post showing that Beauprez would lose to Ritter in a general election. What that means is that even though Beauprez has great name ID, he also has a lot of negatives that he needs to overcome. Roughly 80 percent of Coloradans know who Beauprez is, but only 36 percent of them want to vote for him; thats not good news for Beauprez any way you try to spin it. In effect, there are a great number of people who say, I know who you are, and I dont like you.

Holtzman got the most bad news from the two polls last week, learning that right now he is 34 points behind Beauprez among primary voters and would get beaten by Ritter even if he made the ballot next November. However, Holtzman was the first candidate to surpass $1 million in fundraising, which is impressive any way you slice it, and also succeeded in raising his name ID from the depths of this summer to 44% — which is exactly what his campaign intended to do by getting him on TV against Referenda C&D. Holtzmans biggest advantage, however, is that his campaign is clearly the better of the three right now. The campaigns for Beauprez and Ritter lag far behind the organization and execution of the Holtzman camp at this point, as Holtzmans successful battles with Beauprez last month can attest to.

Elsewhere on the Governor Line, Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald has become much more likely to enter the race as it becomes more of a challenge for her to run for re-election in 2006. Fitz-Gerald will go to court to find out if she can run for one more term in the State Senate, but she may have to make a decision on the governors race before that; Joan cant wait, say, until March to decide to run for governor. If shes going to go, shell have to go in the next two months, and the outcome of the decision on her senate seat may not be finished.

Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff seems less likely to make a run, but on the Republican side former Congressman Scott McInnis keeps hinting that he may enter the race under the right circumstances.

Moving on…

The CD-7 Line has seen some changes, with Republican Rick ODonnell taking over the top spot. ODonnell continues to raise a ton of money, but were skeptical of what kind of candidate hell be outside of fundraising. ODonnell completely botched his first big press attempt a few weeks back, but as long as thats a stumble and not a harbinger of things to come, ODonnell could be tough.

The big movement is between Democrats Ed Perlmutter and Peggy Lamm. Perlmutter had a rather disappointing Q3 in fundraising, compared to his previous total and the money being brought in by ODonnell, and now comes word that Lamm is making a strong push.

Lamm put most of her eggs (no pun intended) in the EMILYs List basket this summer, and it may have paid off. A representative from EMILYs List commented in our post last week that the organization was still looking at Lamm, but that statement was nothing more than the kind of statement they release for any candidate they might possibly consider. In fact, when we responded to a similar e-mail we never heard anything back.

What we HAVE learned is that Lamm has been quietly introducing a staffer from the Western Regional Office of EMILYs List around Denver, and when EMILYs List sends a staffer to poke around it can often be a precursor to an endorsement. Lamm still isnt there yet, but EMILYs List apparently is getting more comfortable with Lamm and CD-7, and Lamm is spending a great deal of energy trying to close the deal. Lamms fundraising is not overwhelmingly strong, but she is doing enough to hang around and is a likable and hard-working candidate; add to that the fact that CD-7 will be one of the three most competitive seats in the country in 2006, and EMILYs List may make the jump.

If EMILYs List does come on board, in addition to the hundreds of thousands of dollars the endorsement could generate, the group could also do an independent expenditure in the $299-300k range. In other words, EMILY + Peggy = your new leader in the CD-7 clubhouse. Shes not there yet, but shes getting closer.

Looking at CD-4, Republican Marilyn Musgrave maintains her lead over Democrat Angie Paccione, who was less than impressive in her first filing of the campaign. Paccione only had two weeks to formally raise money, but she had been running around talking about her candidacy for six months; raising only $37,912 isnt the kind of shot-across-the-bow statement she needed to send to potential supporters.

In CD-5, news that Congressman Joel Hefley may indeed run for re-election causes major shifts in the line. Former Sheriff John Wesley Anderson may still consider a run even if Hefley is in the race, but the rest of the hopefuls are, well, just hopeful that he doesnt run. Democrat Jay Fawcett moves up by default and may actually benefit if Hefley stays in the race.

In CD-3, Republican Scott Tiptons embarrassing $10k third quarter makes him a long shot at best to topple Democrat John Salazar, who is on pace to pass $1 million raised this year. Yes, its early. Yes, Salazar is the incumbent. But $10k is inexcusable because it sends the message that maybe Tipton isnt the strongest Republican that could have challenged Salazar. When Herb “The Robot” Rubenstein has a better Q3, you’re in trouble. Theres no reason to let that happen.

Finally, weve modified the Referenda C&D Line slightly, but the YES campaign still has the lead. The YES side definitely has more momentum than the NO campaign, which has repeatedly shot itself in the foot. This one is going to be a barnburner and is too close to call, but if we had to guess wed say it wins by a thin margin because the momentum is there.

There you have it. Surely you have your own opinions, so sound off in the comments section.