December 02, 2006 12:20 AM UTC

MSNBC On Colorado Senate Race

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• by: Colorado Pols

From MSNBC:

Two-term incumbent Sen. Wayne Allard is a folksy former veterinarian. Democrats have under-estimated him in the past and may do so again.

But Colorado, like Minnesota and New Hampshire, is trending Democratic. The Democrats won both this year’s governor’s race and an open House seat; they also gained seats in the state legislature.

Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli predicts that Allard, who said he’d serve only two terms, will not run for another term, even though “he’ll get an enormous amount of pressure” to do so from GOP leaders.

“He hasn’t raised a lot of money and he is just not acting like a candidate for re-election,” Ciruli said. As of the beginning of October, Allard had only $120,507 in cash, a pittance for a Senate candidate.

In contrast, likely Democratic candidate Rep. Mark Udall had a cash reserve of more than $1.3 million for his House race. Assuming he has most of that money left, Udall can transfer all of the remaining cash to his Senate campaign fund. Udall cruised to re-election to his House seat, with 67 percent of the vote.

If Allard does retire, a possible contender for his seat would be Republican Gov. Bill Owens who is term-limited and is leaving office. But Owens has quarreled with GOP conservatives over a spending limit and over the immigration issue. So an Owens candidacy is no sure thing.

A true-blue GOP conservative who might run if Allard bows out is Rep. Tom Tancredo, the House’s most prominent opponent of illegal immigration.

“We like our crowded Republican primaries in Colorado,” said Colorado-based GOP strategist Patrick Davis. “The more candidates in the race, the sharper the elbows that get thrown.”

On Democratic-trending states such as Colorado hinge the Republicans’ chances of getting back their Senate majority any time soon. At this point there seem to be ample reasons for cautious pessimism among Republicans.