An eye-opening new poll from AP/NORC should serve as a giant flashing red light for Republicans.
As The Associated Press explains:
Republicans’ outlook on the direction of the country has soured dramatically, according to a new AP-NORC poll that was conducted shortly after last week’s assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.
The share of Republicans who see the country headed in the right direction has fallen sharply in recent months, according to the September survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Today, only about half in the GOP see the nation on the right course, down from 70% in June. The shift is even more glaring among Republican women and the party’s under-45 crowd. [Pols emphasis]
Overall, about one-quarter of Americans say things in the country are headed in the right direction, down from about 4 in 10 in June. Democrats and independents didn’t shift meaningfully.
Interviews with Republicans who took the poll suggest that political violence and nagging worries about social discord are playing a role in the notable shift in their mood after a summer scarred by killings of figures on both sides of the political spectrum, although they also mentioned another array of worries, including jobs, household costs and crime.
This is a big deal. Confidence in the Trump administration isn’t just eroding among Republicans — it’s plummeting. As the AP continues:
The GOP shift in optimism, especially among younger Republicans and GOP women, is noteworthy for its scale. The drop in Republicans who see the country headed in the right direction is bigger than the decline between October 2020 and December 2020, after President Donald Trump, a Republican, lost his reelection bid. It’s more similar in scope to the decline that occurred in the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Among Republicans younger than 45, the decline is particularly glaring: 61% say the country is headed in the wrong direction, a spike of 30 percentage points since June, the last time the question was asked.
Look at that last number: A 30% decline among Republicans under the age of 45 just since June. At this rate, 121% of “young” Republicans will have soured completely on Trump by the end of the year.
Worries about the economy and the job market are not likely to improve anytime soon, particularly since Trump seems unbothered by the fact that his chief 2024 election promise — lowering prices — has been completely devoured by his ridiculous tariff war and the uncertainty it is causing businesses across the country. Barring a lobotomy, Trump is also not going to bring the temperature down on political and social discord; his attacks on popular late night television hosts are only applauded by the most diligent of Fox News viewers.
Trump and his minions may or may not be phased by these numbers, but any Congressional Republican with half a brain (yeah, we know, the jokes write themselves) should be absolutely terrified about what this portends for the 2026 elections. At some point, fears that Trump could stoke a Republican Primary challenge against disloyal elephants have to be measured against the sheer unpopularity of Trump administration policies overall; why worry about winning a Primary Election if you’re just going to get pummeled in the General Election?
Yes, things could change; yada, yada, yada. But for anyone concerned about the direction of the country in the second Trump administration, this is absolutely good news. Reality may yet intervene.
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