The Big Line: 2026

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2026 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: July 14, 2026

U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (90%)↑
Hickenlooper will cruise to re-election in November.

(R) Mark Baisley (10%)
Baisley already failed at running for Governor in 2026. He’ll fail here, too.

GOVERNOR

(D) Phil Weiser (90%)↑
Weiser will be Colorado’s next Governor.

(R) Victor Marx (10%)
The son of Karl Marx (no, really) won’t be Governor, but he’s officially the GOP nominee in 2026.

(I) Greg Lopez (5%)
Lopez has decided to lose as an ‘I’ instead of losing as an ‘R,’ but at least he’ll finally make a General Election ballot!

(D) Jared Polis* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Jena Griswold (70%)
Griswold had no trouble in Democratic Primary, but Republicans will likely focus meager efforts here in November.

(R) Michael Allen (30%)
El Paso County District Attorney has the charisma of a cement block.

(D) Phil Weiser* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

SECRETARY OF STATE

(D) Amanda Gonzalez (90%)
Gonzalez will be the next Secretary of State.

(R) James Wiley (10%)
Republicans selected a nominee for SOS who was a candidate for Congress in 2024…for the Libertarian Party.

(D) Jena Griswold* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

STATE TREASURER

(D) Jeff Bridges (80%)↑
State Senator and Chair of the Joint Budget Committee knocked out all Democratic challengers at assembly.

(R) Kevin Grantham (20%)↓
Fremont County Commissioner and former Senate President should be better at this.

(D) Dave Young* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Melat Kiros (90%)↑
Winning the Democratic nomination means Kiros is going to Congress.

(R) Christy Peterson (2%)
The Colorado Rockies have a better chance of winning the World Series than Peterson has in Denver.

CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
This race was over the day after the 2024 election ended.

(R) Kelley Dennison (2%)
“America’s Goth Girlfriend,” or whatever.

CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Jeff Hurd* (60%)↓
The “Bread Sandwich” stabbed rural health care providers in the back and should pay for it politically.

(D) Dwayne Romero (40%)↑
Romero only joined race in March but handily won Democratic nomination, showing he has a base of support already.

CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (80%)
This is the single most Republican-heavy district in the state; the fact that Boebert isn’t even trying to raise money speaks volumes.

(D) Eileen Laubacher (20%)
Navy Rear Admiral and Colorado native is raising big money, but this is a tough haul.

CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Jeff Crank* (53%)↓
Crank seems to have determined that his best chance at re-election is to keep his lips planted firmly on President Trump’s ass.

(D) Jessica Killin (48%)↑
Killin made the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” list, cementing status as a top challenger nationwide.

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (95%)
Crow will be here until he decides to do something else.

(R) Jason Clark (2%)
Mel Tewahade won the GOP nomination at assembly but later withdrew his candidacy, not that any of this matters.

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen* (95%)
Pettersen won by 15 points in 2022 and 14 points in 2024. She’s safe.

(R) Amanda Capobianco (2%)
At least Republicans now know the name of the person who won’t beat Pettersen in 2026.

CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(D) Manny Rutinel (55%)↑
Rutinel cruised through Democratic Primary and will now face onslaught from national Republicans.

(R) Gabe Evans* (45%)↓
Evans is the most endangered incumbent Republican in Congress.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats started 2024 cycle with a 23-12 advantage and ended in the same place. There’s no path for Republicans here.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans spent $5.5 million in 2024 and netted ZERO seats. Rinse, repeat.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (95%)
The only mystery here is about the final size of a Democratic majority in 2027.

REPUBLICANS (5%)
Republicans are just moving food around their plates in a caucus full of unserious buffoons.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2026 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.