August 12, 2012 07:47 PM UTC

Reminder: Paul Ryan Is Not "All In"

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• by: Colorado Pols

One detail in the choice of Wisconsin GOP Rep. Paul Ryan to run for vice president with Mitt Romney intrigues us politically, as the Racine, Wisconsin Journal Times reported yesterday:

Paul Ryan can and will run for both vice president and U.S. representative this November.

Wisconsin law allows such a setup and Ryan will take advantage of it, campaigning as Republican Mitt Romney’s vice presidential running mate and as a seven-term U.S. representative seeking re-election in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, which includes Racine County.

“Congressman Ryan will be on the ballot for the U.S. House of Representatives seat,” Ryan spokesman Kevin Seifert said in an email to The Journal Times Saturday, just hours after presidential candidate Romney named Ryan his vice presidential pick during a campaign stop in Norfolk, Va. The USS Wisconsin served as the backdrop for the long-awaited announcement.

The Journal Times reports that should the Romney-Ryan ticket prevail in November, a special election would be held to replace Ryan as representative of Wisconsin’s 1st district.

And though this story doesn’t mention it, obviously, Ryan could keep his seat in Congress if his bid for vice president doesn’t work out by staying on the ballot in WI-1. Ryan does have a Democratic opponent, and the district is considered swingable with a Cook PVI of R+2. Ryan’s challenger, Rob Zerban, released a poll late last week that asserts the race is winnable.

Joe Lieberman stayed on the ballot in the Connecticut U.S. Senate race in 2000, and easily defeated his Republican challenger. Likewise Joe Biden easily won in Delaware in 2008–and won the vice presidency the same day. We assume it would be legal under Colorado law too; we haven’t heard specifically yet. Either way, this is one reason why it’s easier to ascend to higher office from a four or six-year term if you time it correctly (see: John Hickenlooper in 2016).

In 2004, on the other hand, Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards chose not to run for re-election to North Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat, which would have also been a concurrent race–and probably not a blowout. We think the tenor of politics in 2012 favors the choice to not run for two offices, and suggest that Ryan’s “hedging his bets” could damage the Romney-Ryan ticket–and maybe Ryan’s other race, too.