February 17, 2012 08:31 PM UTC

If Santorum Beats Romney In Michigan...

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• by: Colorado Pols

CNN updates today:

A new poll indicates Rick Santorum is holding onto the top spot in Michigan, the native state of his chief rival Mitt Romney.

Thirty-seven percent of likely Republican primary voters said they would back Santorum, while 32% preferred Romney, according to a new American Research Group survey…

Michigan, which holds its primary on February 28, has long been considered home turf for Romney, whose father once governed the Wolverine State. The candidate also carried the state in a much-needed victory in the 2008 Republican primary.

Most importantly, today’s poll in Michigan shows the same five-point margin for Rick Santorum over Mitt Romney that the poll showed a week ago–while support for both has grown in absolute terms as undecideds decide, and Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich slide toward obscurity. That consistency over time as other variables begin to lock in adds confidence to this poll.

For a host of reasons, only one of which being Romney’s strong ties to Michigan, a Santorum win there ahead of Super Tuesday would be another setback Romney doesn’t need.