December 26, 2011 09:10 PM UTC

Who Lost The Most In GOP's Payroll Tax Cut Debacle?

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• by: Colorado Pols

AFP reports:

Obama’s triumph will help erode a damaging impression among some supporters that he has failed to be sufficiently tough with Republicans. “In purely political terms, it is a clear victory for President Obama and the Democrats,” said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington…

While Republicans are generally seen as the party of lower taxes, Obama was able to paint himself as the champion of a tax cut opposed by his rivals.

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll found that 46 percent of Americans now trust Obama most on taxes, while 41 percent backed congressional Republicans.

A CNN poll last week put Obama’s approval rating at 49 percent, up five points over the last month, helped by improving sentiment among the middle class voters the president needs to win reelection.

There’s no question that the battle over the extension of the payroll tax cut ended as a significant victory for Democrats–an outcome that wasn’t all that likely only two weeks ago as Republicans were gaining the upper hand in forcing concessions. The short-term extension of the payroll tax robs the GOP of a favorable negotiating position they enjoyed after Democrats dropped a “surtax” proposal on the highest income earners to pay for the full one-year extension. When the public tunes in next year with polls favoring the “surtax,” this could prove a major setback.

Perhaps more importantly, turning the negatives in this battle solidly against House Republicans could do lasting damage to the campaigns of many incumbent members of Congress–very prominently including Colorado, where two incumbent Republicans now face tight battles for re-election in competitive districts. Freshman Rep. Scott Tipton declared the compromise “unworkable,” then was forced to sheepishly declare it acceptable after all. Rep. Mike Coffman was likewise ensnared, getting special attention from Democrats after joining the vote to kill the Senate compromise despite his apparent wavering the day before. It’s worse for Coffman and Tipton due to their relative vulnerability than for Rep. Cory Gardner, who seems more concerned with positioning himself in the budding rivalry between Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor than providing cover for his more-vulnerable peers.

And Rep. Doug Lamborn was reportedly “absolutely” fine explaining a potential tax hike to his constituents throughout the whole mess. Now that, folks, is the power of a safe seat.

We said before that the GOP’s wholesale defeat in this battle over their signature issue could mark a political turning point for the 2012 election cycle. Much depends on the outcome of the next round of negotiations over the longer-term extension. But the conflicted loyalties and weakness revealed on the strongest issue the GOP has, the major discussion item at Christmas dinner tables around the nation this past weekend, is going to reverberate next year–especially in the races where the couple of points it’s realistically worth could make the difference.