December 06, 2011 08:18 PM UTC

Nothing But Bad Press For Mike Coffman

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• by: Colorado Pols

These are not the headlines one wants Beltway moneymen to be reading–New York Times:

“[The Sixth District] goes from fairly safe Republican to probably competitive,” said Professor Ken Bickers, the chairman of the political science department at the University of Colorado at Boulder. The seat is held by Representative Mike Coffman, a Republican, who replaced Tom Tancredo in 2008. Mr. Tancredo, a Republican who ran an unsuccessful independent bid for governor of Colorado last year, became a national spokesman in opposition to illegal immigration from his base in the district…

One clear winner on the new map is the state’s third-largest city, Aurora, a suburban behemoth of 325,000 people on Denver’s eastern edge, which had been carved up into different districts under the old map. The new map puts it squarely in Mr. Coffman’s new district, giving the city its own distinct electoral voice for the first time. Aurora is almost 29 percent Hispanic, according to the 2010 census. Hispanics are among the fastest growing demographic sectors in Colorado and tend to vote for Democrats.

The Hill’s Cameron’s Joseph:

The new map was Democrats’ preferred alternative, and will have three swing seats and two safe seats for each party. Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.) will be running in a much tougher district and freshman Rep. Scott Tipton’s (R-Colo.) district went from Republican-leaning to a pure toss-up seat…Republicans had hoped for an incumbent-protection plan that would have locked in the 4-3 edge they currently hold in the state delegation.

There are several dozen more stories out there in national and local news outlets–we’d guess that the aforementioned Washington, DC Republican kingpins did plenty of Googling on the name “Mike Coffman” this morning. From Coffman’s point of view, or for that matter any Republican hoping to see this once-safe seat held, there’s little good news to be had.

But while CD-6 moves into the top tier of Democratic congressional pickup opportunities around the nation, and attack groups local and national eagerly set to work on Coffman opposition research folders, the fact remains that Coffman is a formidable incumbent. It’s a good bet that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) will continue to support Coffman for the time being, and we expect Coffman to continue to raise big sums of cash.

That said, all eyes will be on the NRCC, and Coffman’s next set of fundraising numbers, watching for any signs of deprioritization. In every election, high-level decisions are made to shift resources away from both unwinnable and already-won races, to races where the outcome can be affected by timely support. At the very least, CD-6 is a high-investment protect now.

And it’s Coffman who must demonstrate why they should not write him off.