December 04, 2011 06:44 PM UTC

Reapportionment Rage: What Matters, What Doesn't

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• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: The Colorado Supreme Court has moved the deadline for filing briefs up to Thursday.

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The Durango Herald’s Joe Hanel updates today:

Colorado Republicans are furious at the chairman of a commission that voted Tuesday to draw state legislative districts in a way that greatly benefits Democrats.

Mario Carrera, the lone unaffiliated voter on the 11-person Colorado Reapportionment Commission, sided with Democrats on a series of 6-5 votes Tuesday to accept their plan and shut down all GOP attempts to amend it…

Carrera replied Friday and noted a Supreme Court decision that told the commission to avoid splitting counties.

“I recognize that you are upset that I did not vote for the map introduced by Republican commissioners,” he wrote. “Simply put, the Republican commissioners’ maps had many more county and city splits that were not in accordance with the mandate from the court. … I do not regret a single vote, even if the result of my vote caused less than satisfactory results for you as the leader of your political caucus.”

…Earlier this year, Carrera voted for both Republican and Democratic plans. He later drafted his own plan using elements of both maps, and the commission adopted his plan on a bipartisan vote.

However, Republicans led a successful drive to get the maps overturned at the state Supreme Court, so the commission had to try again. Democrats seized the court ruling as an opportunity to draw a map that threatens Republican political fortunes in Colorado for the next decade. [Pols emphasis]

Now that the reapportionment commission has sent these maps back to the Colorado Supreme Court for review, there are two tracks to the story emerging: one of political recrimination and fingerpointing, and the other related to the court’s next steps in reviewing and, based on the expectations of most experts in both parties, approving the new maps.

Only one of these two parts of the story really matters anymore: the next deadline in the court review process will be this coming Friday Thursday, (see update) when briefs from third parties both supporting and opposing the new maps are due. As Republican reapportionment commissioner Bob Loevy has said repeatedly since Tuesday, though, there’s not very much for the court to object to in the new maps–they were expertly constructed to meet the requirements set forth by the court when the maps were remanded. As Hanel and basically everyone else working this story has reported, most Republicans believe the chances of a second remand are quite small.

And if they were to be remanded a second time, what then? All indications we’ve seen are that relations between commission chair Mario Carrera and the GOP have irretrievably broken down. In fact, the flood of attacks on Carrera from Republicans makes it clear that they have no expectation of working with Carrera again, as they did to approve the first set of maps with bipartisan support. The GOP’s choice after that to lead the drive (as reported above) to get the first maps thrown out, coupled with the fierce attacks on Carrera over the second maps, makes it awfully hard to see how, or why, Carrera would try to please them a third time.

Hanel is very fair in today’s story about the procedural he-said she-said the GOP is relying on to stoke outrage over losing this close vote. Hanel reports on emails Republicans say show they were not given the same information as Democrats regarding deadlines, and other emails supplied by Democrats demonstrating Republicans were given the same information. He reports accurately on significant changes Republicans proposed in their own last-minute maps. And most importantly, as we noted, that it was Republicans who led the appeal of the first maps–maps that GOP commissioner Loevy now says it was a grave mistake to appeal.

Bottom line: none of this matters. Once the map is finalized, nobody is going to care about this petulant inside-baseball whining–for which potent counterarguments exist at every step.

The only thing the Colorado Supreme Court is going to consider–the only thing according to Loevy they can consider–is whether or not the new map comports with state law, and their instructions in remanding the original map to the commission. The Colorado Supreme Court directed the commission to reduce the number of county splits. As Loevy has said, the court has no guidance in law obligating it to protect incumbents. And since the decision on Tuesday, it’s been reported that some Democrats have indeed been paired with other incumbents in redrawn districts; as well as Democrats like Rep. Roger Wilson of Glenwood Springs, whose district was made considerably more Republican in order to comply with the court’s instructions.

Democrats with knowledge of the process make it clear to us that the new maps were not their first choice: the maps the commission approved with bipartisan support, and appealed by GOP leadership, were their first choice. Given the instructions handed down by the court in remanding those maps, what Democrats say is that the new maps represent the best choice.

And here’s a simpler message we’re hearing this weekend that you’ve heard before: Republicans are mad because these maps create competitive districts. Competitive races are what the voters want, but Republicans fear them because they require moderate candidates–which they don’t have in ready supply. Mario Carrera, who despite the one-sided reporting has made political donations to Republicans too (see: Scott McInnis, Ryan Frazier), ultimately sided with Democrats because Democrats created more truly competitive districts than Republicans.

Very soon, folks, we think the whining to an insider audience of hundreds over procedure will end–and preparations to meet this new reality with electable GOP candidates had better begin.