October 31, 2010 02:27 PM UTC

Bennet's Zero Sum Game Mistake

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• by: H-man

There are three key voting constituencies that make up the Colorado electorate in the US Senate Race.  About 40% of the vote will be coming from Registered Republicans, who make up 35.2% of active voters; about 35% will be coming from Registered Democrats, who make up 32.8% of active voters; and about 25% will come from those who are registered as Unaffiliated, about 31% of the active voters.  We have a reasonable basis for those numbers as most of the votes have already been cast and recorded.

Bennet’s challenge has been to pick away at constituencies that take away from Buck in numbers that hurt Buck more than the tradeoff hurts Bennet.  

Early on Bennet decided to go after the women’s pro-abortion vote at the expense of the traditional base Dems have enjoyed with Catholics.  Politically that was a good move as the net likely was to pick off more Republican and Independent women than he loses in church going folk.  I would expect at a good many religious services this morning voters will be reminded of that today, but I would also expect Bennet does not care as he does not belong to any church or other religious institution.

This week Bennet made another choice which I think will hurt him.  

Bennet needs to energize his base to maximize Dem votes.  He has a friend that his base loves, but is toxic to everyone else.  In order for Bennet to win, however, he needs more than Dems to come out, he needs Independents, who hate his toxic friend.  In addition the mere mention of his toxic friend increases voter enthusiasm for Republicans which he needs to suppress.  Didn’t Bennet have any other friends who could make a call or appearance?  Couldn’t he have gotten Clinton to make the phone call?

So now days before the election, Obama calling his friend Bennet to gin up the Bennet volunteers is in the news.  It might help Dems a bit with their base but how does it plays with Independents?  Why was Bennet trying to localize the race in the first place?

Obama has a 40% approval rating in Colorado.  55% on the citizens of Colorado disapprove of the job he is doing including 54% of Independents.  In the poll that came out yesterday from Marist finding Buck ahead by 4%, here is how the approval of Obama inquiry plays out:

Of the 40 percent who approve of Obama’s performance, 95 percent back Bennet. Of the 55 percent who disapprove of Obama, 87 percent support Buck.

Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/201…

That was not a good trade off, unless Bennet’s goal was to only get 40% of the vote.