October 22, 2010 09:54 PM UTC

And...Now This is Getting Silly

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• by: Colorado Pols

Over the years at Colorado Pols, we’ve been accused of being biased in a variety of directions and for a variety of reasons. But whatever your opinion or perception of our biases (or is that pronounce “bias-ees”?), you’ve got to admit that we rarely, if ever, have tried to argue that the sky isn’t blue and the grass isn’t green. In other words, there are some things in Colorado politics that are just factually true, whether you like it or not. Some things are as easily predictable as saying that fans are going to be pissed off at the Denver Broncos at some point every fall.

We’ve all heard ad nauseum about the coming “Republican wave” and how it will destroy all Democrats in its path, etc., etc. We think that story has been a bit overplayed, but nevertheless, there is certainly more enthusiasm for Republicans than there is for Democrats in 2010. Yet we should all be careful not to confuse enthusiasm with reality.

Case in point…

Today we received a press release from Republican Mike Fallon, who is running against Democrat Diana DeGette in Denver’s CD-1. The title of the release is “NEWS ALERT: Fallon Closing Gap in CD1.”

We have very encouraging news to share!  A recent poll has found that Dr. Mike Fallon is gaining ground in Colorado’s First Congressional District.  The win is now within our reach – we trail our entrenched incumbent by just 10 points (margin of error +/- 3pts), with 22% of voters undecided.

In reporting about the poll, blogger Joshua Sharf noted:  “After 18 years, DeGette’s a known quantity and she probably can’t say much about herself that will move the needle in her direction.”

We clicked on the link to the blog post mentioned, and here’s what conservative blogger Joshua Sharf had to say:

Does this mean that the race is winnable?  That last 10 points is going to be awfully hard to make up, but the pollsters look at that 22% undecided as a gold mine of potential votes.  After 18 years, DeGette’s a known quantity, and she probably can’t say much about herself that will move the needle in her direction.  More Republicans are undecided than Dems, indicating, perhaps, that they still haven’t heard much about Mike. And over 45% of Unaffiliated voters are undecided.  Of those unaffiliated voters, though, many are probably Dems no longer willing to call themselves Dems to pollsters, who are still probably inclined to vote Democrat.  ccAdvertising thinks that the undecideds could well break 9-1 for Mike.  While I think that’s an extraordinarily optimistic projection, in reality, they’d only have to break a little better than 5-2 for him to actually win the seat, assuming that the partisan breakdown is correct.

All in all, this has got to be good news for Fallon; I just wish it had come a month ago.

So, does this mean that the race is winnable?

NO. IT DOESN’T.

Sharf makes sure to note that the polling sample “appears to over-weight Republicans considerably,” although he cruises right on by this point to make the above statements. Instead of “considerably,” Sharf more accurately could have said “absurdly, to the point of irrelevance.” The voter registration in Denver is 50-20 Democrats over Republicans, but the sample for this “poll” includes 40 percent Democrats and 31 percent Republicans. We’re fairly confident that we could find a poll that showed Fallon is beating DeGette, so long as the sample size was 10 percent Democrats and 60 percent Republicans.

But we digress. The point here is that all of this talk of a “Republican wave” has most definitely gotten completely silly now. Mike Fallon is going to beat Diana DeGette as soon as Tom Tancredo turns into a flying unicorn and moves to Mexico. DeGette will be re-elected, just as Rep. Jared Polis will be re-elected, and just as Reps. Mike Coffman and Doug Lamborn will be back in Congress.

Yes, there is definitely more excitement among Republicans than Democrats this election year. But to pretend that this “Republican wave” might even sweep up DeGette? Silly. Just, silly.