September 16, 2010 10:14 PM UTC

50%+1

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• by: Colorado Pols

Not a chance that what the New York Times reports today could be exactly what we’ve been saying for months, through all the allegations of bias over the fickle news of the day–is there?

Republicans are heading into the general election phase of the midterm campaign backed by two powerful currents: the highest proportion of voters in two decades say it is time for their own member of Congress to be replaced, and Americans are expressing widespread dissatisfaction with President Obama’s leadership.

But the latest New York Times/CBS News poll also finds that while voters rate the performance of Democrats negatively, they view Republicans as even worse, providing a potential opening for Democrats to make a last-ditch case for keeping their hold on power… [Pols emphasis]

A case for Republicans: Voters are remarkably open to change, even if they are not sure where Republicans will lead them. Most Americans, including one-third of those in the coalition that elected Mr. Obama, now say he does not have a clear plan to solve the nation’s problems or create jobs. Democrats remain highly vulnerable on the economy.

A case for Democrats: They are seen as having better ideas for solving the country’s problems. The public steadfastly supports the president’s proposal to let tax cuts expire for the wealthiest Americans. And far more people still blame Wall Street and the Bush administration than blame Mr. Obama for the country’s economic problems.

As we head for the home stretch of this long election season–which began practically the moment the current President took office–the benchmark for comparison is 1994, a year in which a new Democratic President had control of Congress swept out from under him. A month and a half from election day 2010, a repeat of 1994 is possible–but not inevitable. Democrats are almost certain to have their majorities narrowed at all levels–from the U.S. Senate to the Colorado General Assembly. But it’s not as yet certain that Democrats will lose control of any individual chamber, either in Congress or in the state assembly. Democrat certainty of doom and gloom, while in style according to conventional wisdom, may well be exaggerated.

Kind of like we’ve said all along.

The U.S. Senate’s prospects are changing as “Tea Party” candidates win Republican primaries only to face uphill battles in the general election. We’ll stress again that this includes Ken Buck—Jane Norton was always considered the better general election candidate, and Michael Bennet would be facing much longer odds against Norton at this point. We do not believe that polls would show an essentially tied race between Bennet and Norton as they do with Buck, and that is reflective of the perception of Buck as extreme. While Bennet gets positive press for small business-friendly legislation, Bennet’s ads hammer away at Buck’s ‘extremism’ on issues that are either not important to voters or horrendously counter to their interests (see: 94% Medicare approval rating). Meanwhile, the Times reports that Buck’s #1 talking point, all that terrible “spending,” has no traction:

The economy and jobs are increasingly and overwhelmingly cited by Americans as the most important problems facing the country, while the federal budget deficit barely registers as a topic of concern when survey respondents were asked to volunteer their worries.

For the last two years, the debate over the issues that Democrats foresaw themselves running on in 2010 was–we’ll freely admit it–brilliantly obstructed and irrationalized by Republicans, who kept their eyes on this coming election from the beginning. From effective minority legislative obstruction to successfully controlling the prevalent message in the media about the Democratic agenda, they have accomplished the goal of depriving Democrats the platform of success they needed to re-energize the 2008 electorate.

But it has come at a cost of credibility, which the “Tea Party” candidates do not help them recover. What’s more it has not been accompanied with an alternative of their own, and the voters understand that based on their responses here. As the fever-pitch craziness of the last two years gives way to a sober choice at the ballot box, Democrats will have one more chance to turn the asset of an irrational conservative backlash into a liability. Exactly as we predicted, we might add–people complained that we don’t view Scott Tipton as a serious threat to John Salazar, then he demonstrated over and over why we don’t.

Like we say on the Big Line, fully three Democratic U.S. House seats are hypothetically in play, and the Senate race is too close to call. On paper, it’s the greatest peril faced by Democrats since they regained their majorities–nationally and locally. But the fact that all of these races remain entirely winnable by Democrats, means that all the bravado from Republicans about their “rolling wave” masks uncertainty, and profound weakness, even as the stars seemingly line up for them.