September 13, 2010 08:56 PM UTC

Blue/Purple turns to Red/ Purple: what the voter registration numbers tell us about November

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• by: H-man

All the prognosticators seem to agree that the US Senate race and the US House races in Districts 03, 04 and 07 are competitive and that the House races in Districts 01, 02, 05 and 06 are not.  Is there something magical about the candidates in those districts that are not competitive that if only acquired by those in competitive races they could learn and succeed? Is it Charisma? Voter services with a smile?  I think not.  I think it is really a function of the political make up of their districts.

The statewide active voter registration breakdown in Colorado in January 2009 is as follows: Republicans 35.1%, Democrats 34.5% and unaffiliated 29.8%. Colorado had two Democrat Senators and five Democrat House members.  The Republicans have two members of the House.

House District 01 is occupied by DeGette, a Democrat.  Using Jan 2009 numbers, Democrats in District 1 have 52% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Republicans have 18.4%.

House District 02 is occupied by Polis, a Democrat.  Using Jan 2009 numbers, Democrats in District 02 have 39.4% of the active voter registration numbers.   The Republicans have 26%.

House District 05 is occupied by Lamborn, a Republican.  Using Jan 2009 numbers, Republicans in District 05 have 47.3% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Democrats have 24.1%.

House District 06 is occupied by Coffman, a Republican.  Using Jan 2009 numbers, Republicans in District 06 have 43.9% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Democrats have 27.4%

Does anyone else detect a trend here?  It follows in analyzing the competitive house races and the senate race that it might make some sense to look at the relevant voter registration numbers in the districts.

House District 04 is generally seen as the house seat most likely to change hands.  Betsy Markey is a first term Democrat.  She is opposed by Cory Gardner.  Nate Silver at 538 gives Gardner a 76% chance of taking the seat.  There have been two polls done, one showing Gardner up 50 to 39, he other done for Markey showing a tie.  Local pollster Floyd Ciruli was recently quoted about the race in Politico as follows:

“If they win 30 to 35 seats, she’s one of them. As good as she is, she is clearly an Obama Democrat,” said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Denver-based pollster.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s…

The active voter registration numbers show the enormity of the task at hand.  Using Jan 2009 numbers, Republicans in District 04 have 39.3% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Democrats have 28.9%.  Since Jan 2009 the disparity has increased from 10.4% to 12.2%.  

House District 03 is seen as the next most likely house district to change hands.  John Salazar is the Democrat incumbent.  He is opposed by Scott Tipton.   Silver at 538 gives Tipton a 61% chance of taking the seat.  I believe one poll has been released showing Tipton up slightly.  Using the January 2009 numbers, Republicans in District 03 have 36.9% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Democrats have 34.5%.  Since Jan 2009 the disparity has increased from 2.4% to 4.4%.

House District 07 is the other competitive house race but one that is not seen as likely to change hands. Incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter is given a 68% chance of retaining his seat.  The January 2009 numbers have the Democrats in District 07 with 39.5% of the active voter registration.  The Republicans have 29.9%.

In the US Senate race, Nate Silver gives Ken Buck a 74% chance of taking the seat occupied by appointed Senator Michael Bennet.  Numerous polls have been taken and Buck is generally believed to have a lead in the 2-4% range. Using January 2009 numbers the Republicans on a statewide basis have 35.1% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Democrats have 34.5%.  Since January 2009 the disparity has increased from .6% to 2.4%.

If you use the professional pickers, Nate Silver, and follow the active voter registration numbers you would conclude the likely make up of the Colorado House Delegation will be 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats, and a split of 1 Republican and 1 Democrat in the Senate.