September 07, 2010 03:44 PM UTC

Betsy Markey is done; Salazar out in a wave, Perlmutter borderline - Politico

•  
• by: H-man

Yesterday, ColoradoPols in a front page story reported Betsy Markey is alive and well and poised to stave off the wolves at the door. They saw no evidence that she will be cut off from needed national support and that CD-4 was the battleground district in Colorado.  The ultimate paragraph is as follows:

All of which adds up to mean that Colorado, more than just about anywhere else, is the place for Democrats to stand and fight–and CD-4 is a bridgehead that just might be held after all.

Like clockwork, this morning the always photogenic Betsy has her picture atop another article about upcoming Democratic losses in the House.  Do you think Politico might have a little more inside the beltway info than ColoradoPols about national Dem strategy?  I do, too.

Politico’s story, How the House would be won, http://www.politico.com/news/s… has an analysis of basically four different types of seats at play. They see them as 1) seats that would be the most at risk, but still do not result in the Dems losing the house, also called must wins for the Republicans; 2) majority makers, the most competitive seats that the Republicans would need if they are to get approximately 40 seats to take the majority; 3) seats that will fall if there is a wave election; 4) seats that are borderline and may fall if there is a wave election.

If the national democrats want to hold the house they would rationally allocate a disproportionate amount of resources in category number 2, the majority makers, write off the seats in number 1, the majority party was going to lose them anyway, and hope like hell that wave they see coming breaks up before November.

So how does Politico score the Colorado house races?  Betsey Markey finds herself in category number 1, the most difficult type of seat to hold and if lost will not result in a change of control. These seats will be written off and will soon lose needed national money to help save the house. Her race is summarized as follows:

COLORADO 4TH DISTRICT: Rep. Betsy Markey has taken some tough votes in a tough seat. And state Rep. Cory Gardner is a top challenger in this Republican-leaning district.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s…

Most people see this as a wave election where the Republicans pick up more than the required seats to gain control.  If so, that is bad news for John Salazar in CD -3 whose district is in category three.  Politico notes:

COLORADO 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. John Salazar appeared to have locked down this Republican-oriented, Western Slope-based seat after a big 2008 win but he’s never run in a climate this bad for Democrats.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s…

Depending on the size of the wave, Perlmutter in CD – 7, in category four, is also in trouble but is considered on the bubble.  

Now if you were a national Dem, would you waste money on Markey, or try to draw the line with others where you might have a better chance to retain the house?  In this political triage, Betsy Markey will be cut off to try to save the life of the body.