March 17, 2010 12:24 AM UTC

Oh Come all ye Caucus Goers, blogging and triumphant...

•  
• by: Voyageur

(Because – promoted by Danny the Red (hair))

I know all there is to know

about the expectations game…

I’ve played my share of the expectations game.

After a year of bar talk and blogging and doorbell ringing and millions of robocalls, tonight registered Democrats and Republicans will gather at their precinct caucuses for a true exercise in grass-roots democracy.  While the straw polls that will be used to apportion delegates  to the next step, county assemblies, aren’t binding, they usually provide a good clue as to the relative strengths of the respective contenders.

Of course, all the campaign managers are in football coach mode, trying to spin expectations.  “I know the Little Sisters of the Poor will beat the Cornhuskers by thirty points or so,” Nebraska coach Ron Spinmeister told the Associated Press.  “But if we score even one field goal, it’s a moral victory for us.”

 Well, maybe not.  State Sen. Gil Romero rode a strong personal story to the top line at the state Democratic convention in 1998, but Dottie Lamm won the primary and the U.S. Senate  anyway.  More recently, little known Mike Miles won top line in 2004 but lost the nomination to then Attorney General Ken Salazar.  

In general, those results, and many others, document the “left-right two-step” of Colorado politics.  Party activists who bother to turn up at caucuses tend to be considerably more liberal or more conservative than main-line Democratic and Republican voters who vote in their party primaries.   Those primary voters, in turn, are still more liberal or conservative than the unaffiliated voters who dominate general elections in this state.

Thus, to be nominated, candidates tend to exaggerate their left/right qualities.  They trim their sails a bit in the subsequent primaries, then make a mad dash to the center in November.

So the caucuses, while important, don’t necessarily presage nomination, let alone ultimate election.  But as the first test separating the real men and women from the bar talkers and blog warriors, they are still important in both establishing the ultimate personas of the candidates and providing a sense of momentum.  So, let’s look at the front-runners and the expectations they must beat.

Romanoff-Bennet

Michael Bennet is the incumbent.  Yes, he’s an appointed incumbent, but that still gives him the ability to create news by casting votes or sending a “Dear Colleague” letter.  He may be short on charisma, but his low-key, earnest, look-voters-in-the-eye-and-treat-them-as-equals style resonates well with the intelligent and informed voters who will be gathering tonight.  As the incumbent and by far the more successful fund-raiser, he doesn’t need to win the poll tonight, but he does need to get at least the 30 percent necessary to make the ballot without the embarrassment of having to petition on.  He probably can count on a baseline 40 percent and anything over 51 percent would probably effectively seal his nomination.

Andrew Romanoff is the challenger.  As a former speaker of the House and a master political organizer, he is well known among the party faithful.  While he has been cast by some progressives as the more liberal of the two, his actual record is that of a moderate, centrist politician of great skill.   Basically, he needs to win a majority of the caucus vote tonight to keep his insurgency alive.  A big showing – say 60/40 – would embarrass Bennet but wouldn’t knock him out of the race.  But if Bennet wins, no matter how narrowly, it is difficult to imagine a venue in which Romanoff could beat Bennet.  So, the expectations game favors Bennet.  A Romanoff win is expected and only serves to keep him in the game.  A Bennet win could knock Romanoff right out of the ring.

Jane Norton vs. Whatzizname? and Whodat?



Three-way primaries are all about “Who splits whose base?”  On the Republican Senate side, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton has the decisive advantage of running against Whatzizname? and Whodat?  She is the only woman running in a state that has never elected a woman to the United States Senate and running against two guys.  She has solid conservative credentials and has successfully been able to at least placate the lunatic fringe of the GOP without being co-opted by it.  As a bonus, she hasn’t forgotten her Western Slope roots and should draw well in that heavily GOP region. That leaves Whatzizname? and Whodat? to fight over the scraps of the radical right in search of a base.

So, the expectations game is easy.  Norton needs at least a plurality, or the damning headlines “Whatizname beats Norton” will be a serious blow – and force us to actually learn the given name of at least one of her rivals.  But the real question is whether she will win by enough to keep both her rivals off the ballot.  In theory, the requirement for 30 percent permits three candidates to qualify for the primary.  But if she can score 60 percent or so, then the pressure will be on Whodat? to withdraw so the wing nuts can unite behind Whatzizname or vice versa.  Since self-effacement isn’t a big quality among the wing nut community, that’s not likely.  The test for the “none-of-the-above” twins, therefore, will be to show enough strength, say forty percent, to ensure a spot on the ballot and force the withdrawal of the other guy.  

McInnis vs. the Bathtub Boy



Dan Maes has done a better job of establishing himself as an alternative to Scott McInnis than either Ken Buck or Tom Wiens has done against Norton – if only because he’s the only rival to the former Congressman with a pulse.  But in a year when the far right Republicans are making the most noise, Maes is having difficulty getting traction against a candidate who, despite his clear conservative credentials, seems more concerned with governing Colorado than drowning it in a bathtub.

McInnis has criticized  Gov. Bill Ritter’s FASTER highway improvement program, but hasn’t pledged to repeal it outright – which at least demonstrates his understanding that rebuilding Coloradeo’s tatterdemalion transportation system is vital to reviving the state’s battered economy.  Maes shows no such constraint, and is satisfied with calls to build a bigger bathtub, the better to drown the state’s motorists and higher education system in it.

The test here is whether McInnis can score well enough to preclude Maes from the ballot.  If he is forced to face off against his uber-right foe in a primary, McInnis will face even greater problems in appealing to middle-of-the road general election voters who are John Hickenlooper’s lawful prey.

So, have at it, fellow caucus goers.  Tell us who did well at your caucus and why?  And vote for the candidate you think gained the most ground in the caucus tonight.

 Loading ...