May 15, 2006 08:00 AM UTC

Polling Shows Tancredo More than Vulnerable

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• by: Colorado Pols

It looks like everybody has polling fever this morning. Over at Soapblox Colorado, polling data from CD-6 has been posted?showing that?incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo could be in trouble. Most significantly, Tancredo has 85% name ID but only polls at 48% in a head-to-head matchup with Democrat Bill Winter:

Congressman Tom Tancredo is getting caught in the crosscurrents of a nasty national political environment for Republican Congressional incumbents. Voters are unhappy with the direction of the country and President Bush, Congress, and incumbent Republicans like Tancredo are taking the blame. Tancredo?s high negative job rating and his low re-elect measure translate into a current vote below 50%, a dangerous level for any incumbent.?

The Current Vote

? Tancredo is under 50% on the current vote (48% Tancredo / 36% Winter), a sure sign of vulnerability for an incumbent. Despite his overwhelming advantage in name identification (85% Tancredo / 9% Winter), Tancredo is unable to translate it into a majority vote.
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Support Measures?

? Tancredo receives an anemic 47% positive / 40% negative job rating. He receives just a 50% favorable / 35% unfavorable popularity rating. He is now below the 2-to-1 ratio of favorable to unfavorable that is critical for incumbents.?

? Tancredo?s high negatives lead to a low re-elect measure. Just 44% say they would vote to re-elect Tancredo, while 42% would vote for someone new.?

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