October 09, 2009 06:14 PM UTC

McInnis v. Penry: Now It's War

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• by: Colorado Pols

Conventional wisdom (which we never subscribed to) held that GOP gubernatorial candidate Josh Penry would post a substantially higher Q3 fundraising total than opponent Scott McInnis. Though we acknowledge the polls that show McInnis in the (very) early lead, we perceived momentum very clearly building for Penry over the last few months at McInnis’ expense.

As of yesterday, that conventional wisdom is in need of alteration–and with it a number of other assumptions about McInnis’ viability in this race. Things that previously looked disastrous for McInnis are being reassessed, as the Denver Post reports:

Gubernatorial contender Scott McInnis RSVP’d that he would attend a candidate forum later this month but only after organizers agreed there would be no debate with his primary rival, Josh Penry.

McInnis’ campaign also asked that the candidates not be on the stage at the same time.

The requests, coupled with McInnis’ decision to skip a straw poll last month when the Colorado Republican Party held its fall meeting, puzzled a number of GOP members, most of all Penry.

McInnis’ campaign said the focus needs to be on booting Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter in 2010 instead of on debates that could lead to intraparty squabbles…

Penry and Maes have attended more forums than McInnis, which two Denver political consultants said is understandable.

“It’s probably the first good management move I’ve seen by the McInnis people,” said Democratic consultant Steve Welchert. “He has the name ID, and he doesn’t have to play these games.”

Consultant Eric Sondermann, who is unaffiliated, said the candidates are practicing “predictable politics.”

“McInnis is playing the role you would expect of the top dog, and Penry is playing the role of the insurgent underdog,” Sondermann said. “I think the risk for McInnis is . . . he can’t let it become part of his image that he won’t take on his challenger.”

After McInnis’ very good quarter, he obviously thinks the last few months of debate evasion and on-air gaffes won’t hurt him in the long run. He’s the frontrunner now for the GOP nomination, a position that allows him to be “selective” in his public appearances. Given how those appearances have gone so far, we don’t blame him for wanting that to be true.

But Penry isn’t going to just fold. By now it’s evident that Penry is the preference of the Republican base, and Penry’s supporters have shown no compunction about viciously attacking McInnis at every oppportunity. That’s going to intensify in the coming weeks, while Penry’s campaign scrutinizes “McLobbyist’s” huge take for embarrassments–attempting to turn McInnis’ re-proven ability to raise coin against him.

Bottom line: McInnis answered the contempt expressed toward him by Penry and the GOP base, who assumed McInnis’ long goodbye would begin with Penry posting a dominant total for Q3. Now that McInnis has defied them, the real blood will begin to flow.

Oh, and why in the hell is The Post talking about what Dan Maes is doing?