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October 27, 2014 02:09 PM UTC

NBC/Marist: Gardner 46%, Udall 45%, Hickenlooper Up 5

  • 47 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols
Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.
Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.

New polling from NBC/Marist College shows…you guessed it, a continuing nail-biter in Colorado's U.S. Senate race:

In the race for U.S. Senate in Colorado, Republican Cory Gardner, 46%, and Democratic incumbent Mark Udall, 45%, are in a virtual tie among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early. Five percent of Colorado likely voters are undecided, and 2% of those with a candidate preference say they might vote differently. Among likely voters in NBC News/Marist’s September poll, Gardner trailed Udall by 6 percentage points.

Independents likely to vote and gender play a role in how the race has changed. Udall’s once 15 point lead among independents has shrunk to just 3 points. And, the gender gap has widened with men as the driving force behind the gains for Gardner. He now leads Udall among men by 15 points, up from 5 points.

Looking at the governor’s race in Colorado, Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper, 46%, is ahead of GOP challenger Bob Beauprez, 41%, by 5 points among Colorado likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who have already voted. Six percent are undecided, and 6% say they may vote differently.

“To seal up the potential crack in the Democratic firewall for the U.S. Senate, Udall needs a big ground game,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “He trails among those who have already voted by 12 points.”

Most all of the numbers in this poll have tightened from the last NBC/Marist poll in early September, which showed Sen. Mark Udall with a 6-point lead. While Udall's lead has shrunk to the same statistical dead heat most other polling in this race shows, Gov. John Hickenlooper's lead over Republican challenger Bob Beauprez has grown slightly compared to early September's Marist/NBC poll. In both cases, the movement is consistent with what we're seeing in most recent polling.

It's interesting to note that Marist shows a large lead for Republican Cory Gardner among those who have already voted–an important question to ask in our newly 100% mail ballot state. Given the early lead Republicans have posted in ballot returns, that makes sense–and this poll points the path to victory for Democrats in the ground game to play out over the next eight days.

Because, and we know you're sick of hearing it, there's only one "polling sample" that matters.

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47 thoughts on “NBC/Marist: Gardner 46%, Udall 45%, Hickenlooper Up 5”

    1. Yep. This is simply to close for Koch comfort. More fear! More fear! Dance, puppets — dance!

      I look forward to Propaganda Minister Rove's Colorado-inspired mental breakdown this year on foXX's election-night coverage.

  4. Can't you hear A/C now:    but….but…..but, 990,000 Republicans have returned their ballots to date but only 900 Democrats have done the same.

    2. Yes, I'm a Republican. Yes, I returned my ballot already. Yes, I voted for Udall. As a  real conservative, I don't vote for, or support, bedroom cops. End of discussion.  Regards,  C.H.B.

      2. You need to convince other GOPers to do the same – once the GOP gets past this issue of personhood and drops it, a lot more people are going to be willing to listen to the rest of their pitch. But personhood stops a lot of people from listening to anything a GOPer is saying. 

      5. CHB, the poll referenced above indicates that 5% of the Republicans will vote for Udall.  You are not alone.  Fortunately, the poll also indicates that 5% of the Dems will vote for Gardner, so it is a wash.

  5. Dems will be pursuing Dem voters who have not yet voted right up until the end with the most up to date GOTV info ever available. Many voters who have never signed up for a mail ballot and rarely get out to vote midterm have one in their possession now.

    The Rs have mainly already voted. Many young and minority Dems have not and we intend to make sure they know just how A) important and B) easy it is this year. It ain't over by a long shot. We have plenty of votes left to mine. Of course it's not as easy as lying Fox which has yet to issue a correction has stated. You can't just print up ballots on your home computer. There is no Dem voter fraud plot. Just the usual R misinformation/suppression campaigns.

    Chief among these in several states is the push to eliminate evening and weekend voting so low income Dem leaning voters can't vote if they want to avoid getting fired and/or starving their families. Rs can't even pretend that this has anything to do with preventing fraud as they do with their ID laws. It's keeping "undeserving" people from voting. period. Here in Colorado they'll have to get more creative and we'll fight them every step of the way.

    If you haven't yet volunteered and work 9-5 Monday through Friday, it's not too late for you to volunteer for GOTV this weekend. It's super easy and you'll just be getting info to registered Dems who haven't voted yet.You don't have to try to persuade anybody about which candidate is best. Just get Dems with ballots to turn them in. Now. 

    Remind people to vote. Remind them that if they don't have stamps laying around they can hand deliver. Remind them where, including the 24 hour drop off sites. Remind them that if they don't have transportation and want to drop off they can call their county party for somebody to pick up or they can ask a friend or family member. It's perfectly legal for anyone to hand deliver up to 10 ballots for others. Remind them to follow all instructions including the required signature. Explain that no one will see that signature in connection with their ballot.

    We still have time to get this done. Do something. Even if it's only to nag your Dem registered young adult kids or grandkids to fill out the damn ballot and offer to mail or drop it off for them. Get Out The Vote!

    1. Just a great, great post, BC. Thanks for all you do.

      I've got a very good feeling about our prospects here in CO, and I think we'll even manage — perhaps just barely — to retain the national Senate too. And then it's on to 2016, and the probable mass political annihilation of non-gerrymandered Teabaggers from coast to coast, at all levels of government!

      2. 2014 is convergence of negatives for Dems. It's the sixth year election for a two term President, an election in which the opposition party historically makes big gains.  Midterms are historically lower turn out than presidential years which favors R demos. It also happens that a large number of Senate seats up for election are in southern states.  2016, no matter what happens this time, will be an entirely different situation: Presidential year with the shoe on the other foot where Senate seats are concerned.

        The fact that the GOTP isn't enjoying a full out tsunami under the optimal conditions they are enjoying now in 2014 points to a very dismal 2016 for them. Even the most favorable projections don't see them coming close to being able to override presidential vetoes. If Dems do manage to hang on to the Senate and not slip much in the House, Rs will have under-performed on a stunning scale, given all their present advantages. If they barely take the Senate they will simply have very significantly under-performed. Let's go for stunning under-performance. GOTV!

            1. Bowelman, RCP has the Republicans taking back the Senate and picking up 7 seats with Udall losing.  Is that your version of a Dem victory party?  I am happy with that outcome, would you be?

          2. Andrew.  I predict if the lying weasel Gardner loses to uber-liberal Udall, we won't see you around these parts after November 4th but we'll all still be here discussing Colorado and national politics regardless of the election outcome.  We (the intelligent liberals who inhabit this site and understand the ebb and flow of a democracy) survived eight years of the idiot Bush and his puppet master Cheney so we'll survive the phony baloney bullshit of Cory Gardner if he happens to win but don't expect us to suddenly start believing that the guy is going to be anything but a blithering, hyper-partisan shill for Ted Cruz.  The guy is not a 'uniter' and there is nothing in his background that says he is capable of being anything other than a polarizing prick who is only worried about when a sperm becomes a man.  What a nasty con man.  He might win but he's not the better man by a wide margin. 
             

  6. I can live with that. So can Bannock Street.

    And that "large lead among those who have already voted"?

    Yeah, that's that same group of older white GOTPer swho vote early by mail ballot in large numbers in every recent CO election — until we match or overtake them in the stretch.

    But don't let that inconvenient truth deter you, trolls and other assorted right-wing spinmeisters. Quick, Republicans — to the Idiotmobile!

  7. Oh, and BTW — Senator Udall DOES NOT trail Con Man among early voters by 12 points.

    As of today, we Dems have whittled that down to 10.4 points — starting behind initially by 16 points — and falling.

    As all those of us still tethered firmly to reality know, the old GOTPers vote early, then we come in with the big late numbers. It's happening as we speak.

    1. Is it true that the GOP'ers camp out by their mailboxes to get their ballots in ASAP?  I think so…

      R's crowing about knocking on 140,000 doors since June. GOTV knocked on 144,000 doors last week….

      We WILL get it done.  Udall will pull this out.

       

       

       

  8. Coming soon to a newspaper (. . . which obviously excludes any large Denver publication . . . ) near you.

    Circa 1 December, 2014 . . .

    Dateline — Colorado

    Headline:  The Horse Race that Never Was !

        1. All my friends and relatives here in Colorado have voted. This weekend I'm going to participate in the continuing big push. Been doing canvassing and GOTV when I can.  Once again, whatever happens, this isn't going to be a big wave election despite everything that's against Dems such as the Senate seats that are up for election being, as a group, a much more favorable Senate electoral map for Rs and the six year itch:

          New presidents who lasted through six years have actually gained an average of one seat in their second year, but lost an average of six seats in their sixth year. 

          http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2014/01/is-six-year-itch-just-senate-thing.html

           

          So for R's gaining 6 or 7 seats would just be keeping up with average and they really should be doing a lot better than just average in this ideal, stars aligned year for them.  If they miss the average mark by just one, they don't  they don't take the Senate and blow the best opportunity they'll have for a long time.  2016 is up next, a presidential year and one in which they'll be the ones with the tough Senate electoral map, and that one's going to hit them like a freight train.

           

          At the very least,  no matter what happens in 2014, they'll lose it all before they have the chance to force one more partisan hack Supreme Court Justice on us. They can't win a presidential unless they lose their crazies which ain't gonna happen in time for 2016. We either stop them now or put up with a two year stint with a Dem to veto them in the WH until we crush them in 2016. Not the worst pair of options Dems could be facing.

      2. It could all turn out sour Tabby but better to be proud of your positions and support than mope about what jerks our Partners in Democracy are.  I genuinely like Udall.  I have no problems supporting the guy and am glad that it is close enough that he has a chance.  I would have low self-esteem if I found myself supporting Gardner.

        1. Who's moping? I 'm happy to support Udall. I don't expect any candidate to please me 100% of the time. Heck, I couldn't please me 100% of the time.

          He's  strong on many issues that are important to me. I wish he'd said more about what so many here, most notably Bowman and CHB, have pointed out as solid accomplishments and advocacy on important issues.  He's added some ads lately that are doing that and I think they may be having some impact judging from some of the latest polling. Romanoff's got some good new ones out too.

          The complaining that many have done about missed opportunities to cover more of the important issues, not just choice, and all the real accomplishments hasn't been moping. It's been advocating for what many of us think is a better way of getting the guy reelected. I'm just not comfortable with all the strutting and bragging about wins that haven't happened yet. I'd rather leave that to the trolls. 

      1. As if it means anything to anyone.  A few people trying to pretend that they are important by telling everyone who will listen that their opinions are important.

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