The Big Line Updated

Head on over and take a look at the updated version of The Big Line.

There aren't a lot of changes at the top, but the races for Attorney General and Secretary of State look plenty different.

Colorado Pols Big Line

17 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. ArapaGOPArapaGOP says:

    Morgan Carroll for AG? Not in this life. We won't be handing over the legal machinery of Colorado to the trial lawyers.

    • Why not? We're the same state that handed the election machinery of Colorado to an election lawyer. Nothing's too crazy to happen in this state.

      • Duke CoxDuke Cox says:

        Sen. Carroll is still my pick for Governor. It is time for Colorado to be led by a smart, capable, woman who does not seem to be beholden to anything but her constituency and her conscience.

        Sadly, front range communities are seeing that Mr. Popular, himself, John,"pour me a fizzy one there, Ken." Frackenlooper is NEVER going to come around to protecting the water, air, and public health from relentless oil and gas development. Love clean water? …Hick is not your friend.

        The CPA, COGA, IPAMS (or did they change their name?), and their armies of lobbyists and lawyers run the first floor of the Capitol as surely as they did when Bill Owens was governor. You lose nothing on your progressive agenda with a Carroll governorship, but you gain a stalwart defender of Colorados' natural resources.

        Like Kathleen Curry, Morgan Carroll gets it.

        ….and I don't need a lecture about how impossible it is… or how invincible Hick is…contain yourselves…I am well aware of the conventional wisdom. This is just my opinion.

         

  2. Old Time Dem says:

    Time for the annual bitching about how the Big Line is mathematically incoherent.

    Odds of 1-1 convert to a probability of 0.50 (or 50%).

    Odds of 6-5 convert to a probability of 0.45 (or 45%).

    Odds of 4-1 convert to a probability of 0.20 (or 20%).

    The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes must equal 1 (or 100%).

    In this case, the odds given for the four candidates convert to a probability of 1.35 (or 135%), which is mathematically impossible.

     

    • Colorado PolsColorado Pols says:

      The odds only need to equal 100 when it is the General Election, when everything is theoretically equal (no primaries).

      This is similar to the odds to win the Super Bowl before the season starts. The odds have to include whether a team will win enough games to make the playoffs, whether they can win their conference championship, and then whether they can win the actual game itself.

      • Old Time Dem says:

        I'm sorry, but that is gibberish.  "Odds" dont equal anything.  The probabilities to which they convert have to equal one (or 100%), if all potential winners are included.  In the case of the Big Line, it is possible that not all candidates are included, so the sum of the probabilites could be less than one (or 100%).  But it is mathematically impossible for the sum of the probabillites to be greater than one (or 100%).

  3. Not Dame Edna says:

    Has Morgan Carroll said anything about running for AG. I sincerely doubt she will leave the Senate before she is termed out. Why does Colorado Pols even have her up there?

    Meanwhile, where is Mark Waller? I have personally heard him say he is running, he even has campaign t-shirts.

  4. the midwesterner says:

    Any way we could get odds on the two remaining recalls?

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