CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
January 19, 2012 06:47 PM UTC
38 Comments
to denounce these fact-based observations as spin? Will he be able to explain why, or will he just make the charge and not support it? Will anyone give a crap?
He’s tied his star to the Tea Party and Grover’s pledge and alienated former supporters in the process. When news came in that Hesse was out as Chief of Staff, the phone lines lit up. Mike and maybe one other in Tipton’s Washington with any experience in working on the Hill. Mike was the only one that actually listened to the folks back home and didn’t measure their opinion by some TP yardstick.
I can’t say what chance Sal Pace has to win the 3rd CD but with help from Tipton, his odds certainly increase.
not yet justified.
He should build inroads to moderate Republicans and the fishing, hunting, ranching and recreation communities.
So far Pace has been next-to-invisible on the Western Slope, although I hear second- and third-hand that he’s been around. If he has been, he needs to get the word out.
Pueblo voter turnout will decide if Pace wins or not but even moreso Pace has been all over the western slope. He’s always around the western slope. http://www
.krextv.com/news/around-the-region/State-Representative-Sal-Pace-Visits-Grand-Junction-136774998.html?m=y&smobile=y&c=y
More then one term Tipton.
Grand Junction in particular.
He might have been here twice since he declared–I don’t remember exactly, but not enough to stick in my mind. He was here once before he declared.
And he can be less reliant on Pueblo turnout if he does better than average here.
The key to winning any election is to win big where you’re supposed to win, and to not lose too badly where you’re supposed to lose.
He has work to do here.
The trick for a Democrat to win in the 3rd is to carry Pueblo by traditional Democratic margins, and keep the Republican opponent under 60 percent in Mesa County.
For a Republican, reverse the counties. McInnis always did well for a Republican in Pueblo and carried Mesa comfortably, so he was untouchable.
When Salazar first ran and beat Greg Walcher, the race was over when Walcher pulled only 55 percent in Mesa County. Salazar quit working Mesa County hard once he got elected, so Tipton had some ripe pickings as well as the Republican wave going for him.
Tipton is quite vulnerable, but Pace has to step it up in Mesa County.
A democrat who can hold GOP majorities to respectable margins in Mesa is indeed the ticket.
For Pace and typical party line voting throughout the district the race is over. Salazar lost in 2010 with 29k votes in Pueblo won in 08 with 52k votes. Also lazy people don’t raise $500k in 5 months. Pace is our next congressman
You’re deficient.
If you’re being paid to be a shill, you’re doing an effective, although not quite credible, job at it.
Pace is not a done deal. He needs to get out and work. Particularly on the Western Slope.
If Pace is who’s paying you, please pass that along to your boss/client.
I know I will.
Dont confuse me and the lack of your luck and in the sack as one in the same..
Sally-boy will be able to win without the overwhelming crazy support of Mesaland….
Case and point Johnny boy Salazar only carried 37% of the vote in Mesa in 2004. Look it up. SOS office.
http://www.sos.state.co.us/pub… (p.96)
Gertie… Take notice…
And that was get 65 percent plus in Mesa County. He didn’t even come close, so Salazar got a big boost toward winning. Pueblo came through for him. Mesa didn’t come through for Walcher.
That’s the point here. Pace needs to cut into Tipton’s Mesa County votes. He can’t do it by staying away or being next to invisible when/if he shows up.
Stight, you’ve got a lot to learn about the Western Slope. So do the national Democrats, and, for that matter, the Denver Democrats.
I hope Pace will pull it off. Tippy is only good for a limited amount of entertainment.
When you tell people like me (and others who live here) that the Western Slope doesn’t matter because Pueblo is a lock, that sends a message.
Your message is that Sal is the Pueblo candidate for the House, not the CD-3 candidate. Your message tells us that we don’t need to contribute to Sal, work for Sal, or even vote for Sal because he doesn’t need our support.
Confidence is good. Cockiness is not good. And neither is the message you’re sending. We might just take you up on it.
If you were working for me, I’d fire your sorry ass.
Not saying Western slope doesn’t matter just not to the extent that you say it does.. Sal is probably doing a focus proportionate to the importance on the western slope.. Don’t overestimate the importance.. Numbers don’t lie.. I don’t work for Pace so don’t take it out on him. For all you know I work for Tipton and just piss off Democrats hardcores to try to swing you his way or to just not vote..
Please by all means work with me on the numbers.. 40 percent is high for Sal to get on the western slope without the last name Salazar but he will likely work his ass off to get it..
He has been up there 14 times since he announced mid last year. Just looked at some email archives. Tipton has been there 3 times.
Some reasonable commentary about how he is clearly in a good situation to win this year?
I agree that Pace can’t let up on the…this is fucking awful…Pace, but I don’t think that diminishes the fact that both at this point in the race and generally as far as candidates in the district go, he’s running a really good serious campaign.
Certainly, I think it’s a hell of a lot better than Salazar ran in 2010.
It’s obviously too soon to say he’s a lock, but he’s looking like a very very strong candidate.
Doesnt hand pick lazy candidates as you are eluding to. They do polling and name recognition as well as events held and viability. Winning an election is a perfected science to the most part and them investing in Pace shows that he might, just might know what he’s doing. He’s been there more than Tipton has.
As I read it, he’s been around quite a bit. Especially for a guy who is still in session / has a day job in Pueblo AND Denver.
To make it all the way across the district as frequently as he seems to is exactly the sort of thing it seems to me that we need. A representative who is in touch with, in contact with, etc., the whole district.
It’s a hard district to cover, but from what I’ve seen/heard from folks I know out there, Pace has been active.
It’s worth noting that we’re talking about basically half the state. And the guy still has to go to Denver to rep his people in session?
Seems to me he’s been doing pretty darn good?
http://www.coloradopeakpolitic…
I don’t know if this is right, but it has more information than your hit piece. I believe that Scott McInnis’ former aide may be less conservative than today’s CD-3 calls for.
And the man who got Walker Stapleton elected now running Tipton’s campaign? Great news.
That oughtta do it. Let Tipton be Tipton!
His loss for whatever reason will hurt Tipton.
I agree 100%
Why he ever went to work for that nit-wit Tipton, I’ll never know. But of course, now completely controlling the candidate selection process, the people who call themselves “Republicans” are now working at purging the ranks of Republican consultants of the unpure and unclean. Too bad for Mike, but inevitable. Mike, it’s time to find a big firm that pays lots of money for you to be a respected lobbyist.
Tipton better be looking for someone with a ton of experience because he sure does not have it.
Good luck Mike, I’m glad you are coming back to CO!
I believe all you’ve actually proven is that Josh Penry still hates Mike Hesse.
Oh sorry, was that some kind of secret? 🙂
like the fact that they’ve been reporting for awhile now that Brandon Shaffer would be looking at trying to run in CD-6, I then read through the highlighted post above and see this:
What mature and thoughtful analysis that blog provides. If they want to be taken seriously, maybe they should start by growing up.
CPP is simply getting attention by being outrageous.
One day this state might have a conservative blog worth reading. Judging from the comments they get (and I seem to be responsible for half of them), even most hard righties don’t regard CPP as that blog.
I’m not surprise you’re reposting it here.
I’m also not surprised that you’re crediting Stapleton’s victory to a campaign manager when he owed it to the GOP Wave. When you’re trying to drum up flagging morale, it’s sometimes better not to be truthful, isn’t it?
Scooter will run in ’14 and try to regain that seat. He really needs the work
that dominate too much of Republican politics these days. Hesse getting run out of Tipton’s office proves it.
Besides, Scooter has plenty of money so why would he need the grief?
Remember, people who go to Congress tend to get rich. Happened to Scooter. Remember the little thing about getting paid a couple of hundred thousand dollars by a Foundation to write articles about water law? It’s those kinds of gigs that former Congresspeople get that make them rich. Just ask Newt Gingrich.
Not a chance.
How would that idiot possibly beat Pace, let alone anyone?
We have a strong candidate for the seat, and I’m seriously confused at how that is apparently lost on people. He’s going to kick the crap out of that idiot Tipton, and he’ll be a strong hold on that seat (especially since he comes to it with a really solid base) for a long time to come.
Is that you are the idiot. A “strong candidate” wouldn’t have someone saying what you are saying. It’s just stupid. Remember, in politics, reality almost never matters. It’s the perception of reality that matters. If activists like you get on this site are telling you that Sal Pace has a problem on the Western Slope, then he does, whether it’s real or not. Pace is clearly going to need to be more visible on the Western Slope. It’s numbers guys like you (don’t worry, you come from a long line of them starting with Walt Klein in the late 70’s) who don’t know that people still matter. The negative impression that, true or not, is out there, is a problem for the campaign, not only in Mesa County, but across the Western Slope. Being from Pueblo is a problem to begin with. If Mesa county thinks it’s being ignored, trust me, so does the rest of the West slope. Whether you like it or not, the West Slope considers this their district. Your numbers mean nothing. Sal Pace has a long way to go to satisfy the West Slope and win this election. If you don’t get that, well, I would recommend to those of you who are Democrats that you quit wasting your time with this campaign and look for greener pastures.
PS. I’m an unaffiliated voter who hates the people who call themselves “Repbulicans” and hates Democrats who are so smug and condescending as you are. I’m also from Jeffco.
Pace can win the seat, but not if he listens to these know-it-all numbers people. I think Sal is smart enough to get around the Western Slope. I hope he’s smart enough to get better visibility when he’s doing it.