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Ballot Returns Updated for Today

by: Colorado Pols

Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 15:40:45 PM MDT

POLS NOTE: In order to make comments easier to read and understand, we decided to create a new post for these returns, rather than just updating the original post.

Below are the turnout numbers reported a little after 3:00 p.m. today by the SOS. Remember that there is some lag time in the reporting process (in other words, there are more ballots returned than what is listed below, but what is listed below is what the various County Clerks reported to the SOS today):

*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned
Democrats: 279,462/ 817,458/ 34%
Republicans: 314,264/ 855,667/ 37%

Richard Coolidge of the Secretary of State's office also included this note in today's ballot update:

Colorado County clerks may begin processing (not tabulating) ballots 15 days before the election. All 64 counties should have a good sample of mail ballots tabulated after 7:00pm tomorrow evening. Remember, 46 counties are voting exclusively by mail, so ballots received Tuesday may not be included in that original release of results. The remaining 18 counties will still have mail results, but will also need to factor in votes cast at precinct polling places (like El Paso, Pitkin, Las Animas, etc) or at vote centers (like Weld, Park, Archuleta, etc).

Our read on these numbers? The Michael Bennet campaign is going to be sweating it out tomorrow, hoping to see turnout reach levels cross well into the 300,000 level (the higher the turnout above 300,000, the better the odds that Bennet wins).

As for the GOP turnout, we're curious to see how big the undervote might be. Turnout is pretty high already considering the amount of grumbling from Republicans over their (lack of) great choices for Governor, and to a lesser extent, U.S. Senate, but if most of the returned ballots are casting a vote in the race for Governor and Senate, this benefits Scott McInnis and Jane Norton in their respective races.

Colorado Pols :: Ballot Returns Updated for Today

Tags: andrew romanoff, Michael Bennet, jane norton, ken buck, dan maes, scott mcinnis, colorado ballot returns 2010, (All Tags)

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Ballot Returns Updated for Today | 37 comments

Good call making a new post, Guvs!

n/t

by: greality @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 21:51:15 PM UTC

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Maybe the R vs D turnout % disparity simply reflects

the dynamic observed nationally this year: the Republican base is more energized than the Dem base.

That said, it's not a huge disparity.

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head." - sxp151

by: State Line @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 21:54:44 PM UTC

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R turnout is almost always greater than D turnout.

This has more to do with the fact that R's tend to be people with stable addresses and somewhat higher average SES than anything else.

by: ohwilleke @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:02:37 PM UTC

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I would guess

I would guess it's more due to the Democrats having one statewide primary vs. three statewide primaries and two congressional primaries on the GOP side.

by: Leonard Smalls @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:03:31 PM UTC

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That too

by: BlueCat @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 05:12:53 AM UTC

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Here's the problem

The Bennet campaign is going to be sweating it out tomorrow, hoping to see turnout reach levels that more closely resemble the Republican numbers.

The percentages are ballots returned / total active voters. They include unaffiliateds, and total active voters has no relationship to ballots sent.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 21:55:41 PM UTC

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Total active voters by party does not include unaffiliated.

by: ohwilleke @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:00:23 PM UTC

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It's not by party anymore.

The formula changed this year.

Here's a note I got from Mesa County:

* Reason for change in voter turnout
Previously, we have reported turnout based on active affiliated voters as directed. Today, July 30, 2010, our office received notice from the Secretary of State that the official abstract will reflect turnout based on active affiliated and unaffiliated voters.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:12:00 PM UTC

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But now that I re-read Pols' post

It looks like the SoS has broken out Rs and Ds in contravention of his own directive, so YOU'RE right, owilleke.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:18:17 PM UTC

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Not sure I follow that - could you pls dumb it down for me?

Also not sure why the 300k Dem voter figure is thought to be important for MB??

A ballot for your thoughts Ralphie.....

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head." - sxp151

by: State Line @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:07:41 PM UTC

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Turnout is thought to be important to MB

Because AR is thought to enjoy the support of party activists. These people will always vote in the primary, good years or bad. MB needs the so-called "Lazy Ds" who may skip a primary or two, and newly minted Obama dems, to counteract that effect.

Low turnout = The Old Guard
High turnout = More of a mixture

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:14:29 PM UTC

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Thanks - the first part of my ? had to to with the

turnout #s vs. party affiliation - now sounds as though we are in fact getting SOS figures showing turnout as a % of registered D/R voters.

Understand the logic of + turnout good for MB. just wondering where the 300k 'threshold' comes from.

In any event, looks as though that figure will be well surpassed.

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head." - sxp151

by: State Line @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:32:52 PM UTC

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300,000 ballots

Would be more than 100,000 Democratic ballots than were cast in 2008. Basically, it's an entire third of the electorate. If the first 200,000 voters were fairly even in selecting Bennet or Romanoff, the new 100,000 voters (new as of 2008) are much more likely to swing for Bennet, which is how 300,000 becomes a theoretical tipping point.

by: Colorado Pols @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:38:05 PM UTC

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100,000 Democratic ballots than were cast in 2008.

You mean in the primary right?

by: MADCO @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:43:22 PM UTC

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Yes

by: Colorado Pols @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:44:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, if that logic is correct (that ballots cast in excess of 200,000

are more likely to be for Bennet, and that 300k Dem votes represents a theoretical tipping point) then, given the Dem votes reported this afternoon are only ~22,000 votes shy of that 300k threshold - and more ballots are still in the mail, with more voting to come tomorrow - Michael Bennet wins handily.

Not sure I fully subscribe to the hypothesis - though I'd LIKE to believe in its inevitable conclusion.

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head." - sxp151

by: State Line @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 23:34:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

much more likely to swing for Bennet?

Bennetpols propaganda, pure and simple. At least try to keep some measure of impartiality so your posts won't be taken as the tripe they seem to be.

Bennet is the establishment candidate. Romanoff the insurgent. Bennet enjoys the support of all the party insiders and power brokers, Romanoff the support of the workers and activists.

Andrew will get the grass roots votes which will put the swing in his favor.

Let's see tomorrow night who was right.

by: jpsandscl @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 03:27:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's my problem with trying to interpret that information

I try to never confuse correlation with causation.

The Dem returns are less than the R returns.

But the Dems have fewer contested races, so intuition would tell you that interest might be lower.

The other thing is, what else might be causing the lower D turnout? I got a call last Thursday from the Bennet campaign asking if I had returned my ballot yet. I said Yes, and haven't gotten a call since. Could the lower Dem turnout be a result of an anemic GOTV effort by the Romanoff campaign? I can't say.

Without knowing WHY the Dem turnout is lower, I am loathe to ascribe significance to it.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 00:43:01 AM UTC

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Unless you believe ~92% of the final Dem vote tally is in (doubtful),

Bennet will have no trouble getting to +300k Dem voters, given they're only 20,538 shy of that figure now.....

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head." - sxp151

by: State Line @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 21:59:46 PM UTC

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I voted in the Pols polls today.

I assume that means I don't need to drop off my ballot tomorrow, right?

by: OuiserBoudreaux @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 22:55:27 PM UTC

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Well, just don't mail it. n/t

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

by: Middle of the Road @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 23:00:46 PM UTC

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that's right Weezer

you don't.

by: jpsandscl @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 03:28:55 AM UTC

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oh, haha

You're always good for a laugh.

by: OuiserBoudreaux @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 11:48:03 AM UTC

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now let's bury that hatchet, shall we?

by: jpsandscl @ Wed Aug 11, 2010 at 03:22:44 AM UTC

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turned in my primary ballot

today. Dropped it off at the Adams County elections office.

This was as exhausting emotionally as 2008 primary. No, I take that back. Obama/Clinton and CD2 primary in 2008 was much more stressful/exhausting.

Either Andrew Romanoff or Michael Bennet will serve us well in the Senate!

by: Thorntondem @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 00:24:25 AM UTC

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Please take your positivity elsewhere

This site here is for headaches, heartaches, and bellyaches.

by: OuiserBoudreaux @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 00:36:50 AM UTC

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Until tomorrow at 7:00pm

Then we can all be honest about both candidates :)

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 02:34:15 AM UTC

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haven't we all been honest David?

by: jpsandscl @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 03:29:52 AM UTC

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That's an odd comment Dave

Haven't you been honest?

by: BlueCat @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 05:18:15 AM UTC

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I believe I have

I've agreed that "looted" was a lie and that the robocall was total bullshit. But there have been very few on here that have been willing to admit that their candidate is imperfect.

I do give props to MADCO who was up front about it stating that giving ammunition to the opposition is not a smart thing to do.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 14:13:51 PM UTC

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You sound like those righties who claimed

we Dems all thought Obama was the Messiah. I don't recall very many claiming their candidate was perfect in the first place.

by: BlueCat @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 16:36:45 PM UTC

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Ok, name one imperfect thing about Senator Bennet

Not a piddly little thing, one real thing. Maybe you have before but I missed it if you did. (And being late to respond to Romanoff's attacks doesn't count - I'm talking policy & votes.)

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 17:12:04 PM UTC

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one imperfect thing

Bennet's voice does sound like Thurston Howell III.

Romanoff never ran the positive ad his campaign produced.

by: RedGreen @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 17:22:01 PM UTC

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OK Dave. Not completely thrilled with all his votes on banking

financial reform. Do think he does not yet realized just how screwed up Wall Street Banking is. Do believe he has more capacity for coming around while obviously having the knowledge to grasp the complexities enough to do some good work in the area. On the other hand I think Romanoff's intentions are very good but he just doesn't have a clue how it all works and therefore would be much more prone to being sold nice populist sounding solutions with unintended consequences stemming from the details.

by: BlueCat @ Wed Aug 11, 2010 at 00:57:08 AM UTC

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