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Finally, a Rasmussen Poll Democrats Can Love

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 07:55:31 AM MST

Most early polls in any race have not been kind to Democrats, which is not unexpected given the anti-incumbent sentiment nationwide. But as the Grand Junction Sentinel reports:

A new poll shows Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper leading the likely Republican nominee to be the next governor of Colorado.
A Rasmussen poll released Monday showed that the Denver Democrat leads former U.S. Rep. Scott McInnis 49 percent to 45 percent.
A month ago, Rasmussen had McInnis in a three-point lead over Hickenlooper the day he entered the race for governor after Gov. Bill Ritter announced he was dropping out.
At that same time, McInnis held a six-point lead over U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, who was briefly thought to be the lead contender immediately after Ritter ended his re-election campaign.
The poll said Hickenlooper remained the better-known candidate.
It showed that 35 percent of the 500 likely voters surveyed viewed the mayor very favorably, while 12 percent regarded him very unfavorably.
At the same time, McInnis was viewed favorably by 13 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 14 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent...

We repeat our boilerplate disclaimer about putting too much stock into early polls. Nearly every poll done this far out from Election Day is fairly useless because the average voter doesn't really know any of the candidates.

That said, and especially given what many consider to be Rasmussen's built-in GOP biases, you can't call this entirely insignificant. This is the first real poll on the Governor's race since Rasmussen's snap poll from a month ago, on the day Bill Ritter announced he would not run again, and can't be relied upon as a benchmark; Hickenlooper wasn't even a candidate yet.

And as we've said before -- which most pollsters acknowledge -- the most significant early numbers at this point in a campaign are the "very" favorable and unfavorable ratings. In order to rate someone as "very" favorable or unfavorable, you generally have to have somewhat of an informed opinion. Hickenlooper's 35% "very favorable" rating is not good news for Republicans.

Colorado Pols :: Finally, a Rasmussen Poll Democrats Can Love

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Finally, a Rasmussen Poll Democrats Can Love | 21 comments

But...but...Massachusetts!

NJ! VA!

"[McInnis] already appeals to those of us who have half a brain..." ChenWui

by: ClubTwitty @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 08:57:20 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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Source

here:

Just one percent (1%) of Colorado voters now prefer some other candidate given this match-up, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.
Ritter was trailing McInnis 48% to 40% in December prior to his announcement that he would not seek reelection. . . .
Both parties will choose their Senate and governor nominees in August 10 primaries, but Hickenlooper and McInnis for now are expected to be the gubernatorial choices.
Last month, McInnis also held a six-point lead over then-possible candidate Ken Salazar. . . .
At this point, Hickenlooper edges McInnis among both male and female voters. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Democrat by five points.
Hickenlooper remains the better-known candidate at this point. Thirty-five percent (35%) view the mayor very favorably. Twelve percent (12%) regard him very unfavorably. Just eight percent (8%) have no opinion of Hickenlooper.
McInnis is viewed very favorably by 13% and very unfavorably by 14%, but 19% have no opinion of him.

Hickenlooper Net Intense Feeling +23%
McInnis Net Intense Feeling -1%

Hickenlooper Middling Opinion 45%
McInnis Middling Opinion 54%

Hickenlooper No Opinion 8%
McInnis No Opinion 19%

Not sure what to make of the fact that only 6% of undecided, despite the fact that 8% have no opinion of Hickenlooper and 14% have no opinion of McInnis.

by: ohwilleke @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 09:12:14 AM CST

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Not that hard to guess at

Not sure what to make of the fact that only 6% of undecided, despite the fact that 8% have no opinion of Hickenlooper and 14% have no opinion of McInnis.

Data that says only 6 percent undecided while 22 percent have no opinion tells me that you're looking at straight-ticket voters. That would be my working hypothesis, at any rate, until I had better data. I think we're looking at people who choose strictly by the letter after a candidate's name.

I believe that Rasmussen states the party ID of each candidate as part of the question. There is no prior question without the party ID to establish what part of the result is due to name recognition.

by: Ralphie @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 09:23:21 AM CST

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You can't just add the "no opinion" answers

The 8% with no opinion on Hickenlooper could have a strong opinion on McInnis, leaving them with a clear preference; and the same with the 14% with no opinion on McInnis. So it' probably much less than 22% with no opinion about either candidate. Party ID no doubt plays a big role in all this too -- "If he's a Democrat, then I've got an opinion about what's his name!"

by: RedGreen @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 10:14:12 AM CST

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They might not be strictly additive

But I'm still sticking with party ID and straight ticket voters as my working hypothesis for much of the variance.

by: Ralphie @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 10:20:13 AM CST

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Last month -

Wasn't Romanoff polled vs McInnis?

"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?" sufimarie Feb 2010

by: BICora @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 12:13:07 PM CST

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Why?

He's running for Senate not Gov.

by: BlueCat @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 14:34:51 PM CST

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That wasn't entirely clear

for a couple weeks last month.

by: RedGreen @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 14:39:22 PM CST

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LOL

Sorry, but as much as you try, I just can't buy in to the idea that every Democrat is evil except for Andrew Romanoff.

by: JeffcoBlue @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 15:32:23 PM CST

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For a few days

from the time Secretary Salazar said not him (Th or Fri), through the weekend AR was calling around testing the idea of switching.

Then that Tue he held a press conference to announce he was running for the Senate with no money.

"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?" sufimarie Feb 2010

by: BICora @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 11:22:38 AM CST

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That was while back

so no longer relevant.

by: BlueCat @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 11:33:19 AM CST

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And that's when the match-up

was polled. That's all BICora was saying.

by: RedGreen @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 11:51:14 AM CST

[ Parent ]

My bad

by: BlueCat @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 11:54:18 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I know- it has been confusing.

"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?" sufimarie Feb 2010

by: BICora @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 11:57:20 AM CST

[ Parent ]

And it seemed like longer ago

that the whole Governor thing shook out. This is going to be a long slog of an election season. Sorry.

by: BlueCat @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 12:03:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

No apology required.

If the AR campaign ever starts to clarify and make more sense, then it will be fair to hold you to a higher standard. :)

"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?" sufimarie Feb 2010

by: BICora @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 13:07:28 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Poll done after Ritter left showed Hick as

Strongest candidate.

national Democratic party did a quick poll to test names against McInnis, right after Ritter stepped aside.

I did not see the poll but have been told by those that did, that it showed Hick marginally stronger against McInnis than Salazar.

by: Roger D @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 09:23:41 AM CST

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Will the GOP now try to dump McInnis?

Scott McInnis is out of his political league.

by: Born To Run @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 10:13:47 AM CST

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Nothing that a nice...

massage, pedi, mani, and new hair color, can't solve - time for Scooter to get busy.

by: CrazyOkie @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 11:09:29 AM CST

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Scott McFinished

It only gets worse from here.

Sorry, but as much as you try, I just can't buy in to the idea that every Democrat is evil except for Andrew Romanoff.

by: JeffcoBlue @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 12:16:38 PM CST

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As Dickwad said

If it comes down to who is more likable, it's Hick. Looks like the big Dick isn't making much of a dent so far with the Call-him-Hickenritter/Chickenritter campaign.

by: BlueCat @ Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 14:38:54 PM CST

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Finally, a Rasmussen Poll Democrats Can Love | 21 comments