September 15, 2016 02:57 PM UTC

Donald Trump May Never Break His Own Ceiling

•  
• by: Colorado Pols

Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump has been rising in national polls of late, though political analysts disagree on what this might mean for the Presidential race as we approach 50 days until Election Day. Glenn Thrush of Politico breaks out the political ouija board and finds that Trump is still stuck with the same problems he’s had for months:

Everything has gone Trump’s way — and he’s still not ahead. If 2012 was all about the 47 percent, this year — at least for Trump — is defined by the 44 percent. In poll after poll after poll — during the good times and bad, the most disliked politician in the country can never rise (with a few outliers) beyond the 38 to 44 percent range among likely voters (he typically tops out at 42 among registered voters). In a normal year, numbers such as these are in a statistical range political consultants like to call “the Killing Field.” [Pols emphasis]

Clinton’s decision to lay low in August (a time when Trump dumped his Man from Ukraine Paul Manafort and hired the competent professional Kellyanne Conway) will be debated for years. If she wins, her summertime fundraising blitz, meant to unleash a torrent of anti-Trump advertising at campaign’s end, will be regarded as strategic genius; lose and her decision is up there with Michael Dukakis in the tank. But the bigger point: Even with Trump’s nifty new telepromptered campaign, even with Clinton’s paranoia-will-destroy-her decision-making (i.e. covering up her own pneumonia) — Trump isn’t doing particularly well. “True to form, he’s underperforming any other Republican candidate in his position,” said a GOP operative who is publicly backing the reality-star-turned-politician. “He’s just now starting to crack Mitt Romney levels, and everything has gone right for him, including an on-camera face-plant by his opponent.”

Of course, Democrat Hillary Clinton has her own likability problems, though her ceiling is not nearly as low as Trump’s 42 percent. This election has been cast as a battle between two of the most disliked major party candidates in American history, and the Presidential race may very well be won by the candidate who is the least offensive to voters.

If that’s the case, we’d still rather be in Clinton’s shoes right now.