April 21, 2016 03:24 PM UTC

Forget Moe Mentum. Ground rules decide elections.

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• by: Voyageur

(Good analysis from a local who knows stuff – Promoted by Colorado Pols)

The late quarterback/broadcaster Don Meredith often mused that “Old Moe Mentum is a fickle friend.” If nothing else, the 2016 political season suggests it is time to retire the concept from the ranks of the political chattering class and banish it to the even more hackneyed vocabulary of sportscasters.

Old Moe did put in an early appearance when Bernie Sanders did his “better than expected” photo-finish second place in the Iowa caucus. That validated his campaign and he roared to a big win in New Hampshire. But while the chatterers burbled about “Moe Mentum,” every contest since – beginning with Clinton’s second, and last, caucus victory in Nevada, appears to have followed two basic sets of political predictors: demographics and ground rules.

In terms of ground rules, Hillary has fared poorly in caucuses and open contests — those that allow voters who aren’t registered as Democrats. But she does well in primaries or closed contests.

So far, the New York Times Upshot column estimates she has done about nine percentage points better in primaries than in caucuses, and three points better in closed contests than in open ones. Unfortunately for Bernie Sanders, there is only one state caucus left,  a closed one, in North Dakota on June 7. And Sanders has never beaten Clinton in an closed primary.

Demographics have also been key as African-American voters favor Clinton by wide margins, as do Latinos by somewhat narrower ranges. Affluent voters also lean to Clinton. Sanders has never beaten Clinton in a primary where more than 25 percent of the voters are minorities.

All these factors came together Tuesday in New York to hand Clinton a vital 16-point victory that netted her at least 33 delegates. Some pundits had expected Sander’s “momentum” from having won eight of the last nine contests to carry over to New York. But there simply was no momentum – as becomes obvious if one states the equally valid claim that Hillary Clinton had won six of the seven previous primary elections, including every closed primary.

If the seven Sanders’ caucus wins are excluded from his streak the question becomes simply is the Wisconsin primary, a 75 percent white electorate where independent voters and Republicans can cross over, a very good predictor for New York, where some 40 percent of the vote was African American or Latino? The answer is obviously “No” — because New York is not only a closed primary, it’s the most restrictive in the nation.   Voters had to be registered as Democrats by last Oct. 9 to vote in the primary, though new voters had until March 26 to sign up.

As pitches for mutual funds like to warn, “Past results are no guarantee of future performance.” That’s true, but the demographics and ground rules still predict trouble for Bernie Sanders next Tuesday.  There are no caucuses in the so-called Acela corridor and four of the states have closed primaries: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and Connecticut. Only Rhode Island allows unaffiliated voters, though not Republicans, to vote in the Democratic primary. Making things worse for Sanders, the region has a larger share of minority voters than the nation as a whole.

Here a snapshot of next week’s battlefield, including pledged delegates and recent polls.:

Pennsylvania, 189 delegates. Latest Monmouth poll shows Clinton leading by 13 points.

Maryland, 95 delegates. Public Policy Polling shows Clinton leading by 25 points, 58-33.

Connecticut, 55 delegates. Quinnipiac has Clinton up 51-42.

Delaware, 21 delegates, Gravis has Clinton up by 7.

Rhode Island, 24 delegates. No recent polls. Demographics and the region’s only open primary make Sanders a slight favorite.

Obviously, the race won’t be over after Tuesday. But if Clinton does as well as the polls suggest, she could net as many as 40 or 50 of the 384 pledged delegates to be chosen.   Coupled with the 33 she gained in New York, that would bring Clinton back to the 300-some lead she had before Sanders erupted in his caucus winning streak.

After Tuesday, are several closed contests left, including, New Mexico, New Jersey, Kentucky and Oregon. Sanders will have the benefit of open or semi-open primaries in just California, Montana, Indiana and West Virginia.

The contest isn’t over. But unless Sanders can decisively break his losing streak in closed primaries, his odds after Tuesday will be long indeed.