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August 07, 2008 09:14 PM UTC

You heard it here first!!!

  • by: GOPpundit

The point of this thread is to make PRIMARY PREDICTIONS for the EL PASO COUNTY area. (Supported of course with ridiculous suppositions and wild guesses disguised as fact.)

Mine follow. Feel free to post yours too!

Congressional District 5

Jeff Crank       41%

Doug Lamborn     40%

Bentley Rayburn  19%

House District 15

Mark Waller  55%

Doug Bruce   45%

4th Judicial District Attorney

John Newsome  60%

Dan May       40%

The 5th CD Race is a numbers equation from two years ago.  Incumbency, particularly in this case, just doesn’t win the day. Crank has brutally and effectively painted Lamborn into a bed of his own making (to mix metaphors).  This was always and continues to be a two man race and it will again be very very close but methinks my boy Crank has just enough steam to close his 800 vote gap from 2006.

The House District 15 race is a real mystery to me. I picked Waller because I can’t stand Bruce. Hopefully the damn electorate will agree with me. Waller has been on the radio and I think he will do well in the absentees but I am a little more uncertain about election day. Bruce has been elected more than once by these people and he may win the day. Good news here is that he will continue invariably to make an ass of himself and Waller will get another shot if he doesn’t succeed this time.

The 4th Judicial District race is over. Dan May unsuccessfully tried to smear the name of a good prosecutor and it never got serious traction.  Too many highly ethical and respected community leaders gathered around Newsome and I think he survives this attack. THAT SAID… Newsome fumbled on his communication strategy early on and should have fired back with a lawsuit and/or more aggressive earned media strategies.

OK. Your turn.


12 thoughts on “You heard it here first!!!

  1. Whom should Newsome have sued? KOAA for exposing his on-the-job drinking and driving? The Gazette for exposing his casual attitude toward travel expenses? Seriously, what would a lawsuit have accomplished other than drawing attention to his difficulties and making him look like a whiner?

    1. I’ve seen and heard more than maybe I should say… but from what I have seen Newsome had grounds to sue KOAA for libel (note that they have ceased pursuing the story at this point) I think he chose not to avoid looking like a whiner but I think he could have avoided that. Just my two cents.

      1. but a Newsome lawsuit for libel would have been immediately thrown out of any court in the state. He’s a public figure and the story was, at least marginally, about his execution of his public duties. The libel threshold in those circumstances is extraordinarily high, and even Newsome knows that.

        KOAA has “ceased pursuing” the story because it’s old news, it happened, they documented it, that’s it.

        Unless you have any information other than “from what you’ve heard” (courthouse gossip is notoriously reliable, isn’t it?) that KOAA is backing off its story, you’re just hurling rumors in the face of videotape. One of which usually wins.

      1. But I always take it with a large grain of salt when someone’s estimated result is what they want to happen.

        My guess is Lamborn wins by at least 5 because if his internal polls showed it being closer he’d be out there campaigning.

        On Doug Bruce, who knows. I’m hopeful that the people of Colo Spgs will want better but if I was betting I would bet he wins.

  2. Posted 10 days ago in the open thread, when thoughts turned toward predictions:

    Crank wins a nailbiter with 39% over Lamborn’s 37%, and Rayburn’s 24% make him wish he’d taken the opt-out after the poll.

    Bruce wins with 60% of the vote. The entertainment value is too high to discard him.

    May trounces Newsome 2-to-1. EPC voters like them their law and order DAs.

  3. I called this six months ago.

    Lamborn by 8 points.

    Now using your scale of wishful thinking, it would be:

    LAMBORN  60

    RAYBURN  29

    CRANK    10

    RON PAUL  1

    1.    It’s in the neighborhood of 48% to 27% for Crank and 25% for Rayburn.  48% is still an incredible improvement over where he was two years ago.

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