Romanoff Releases Internal Poll Showing Race as Dead Heat

As we wrote in this space over the weekend, rumors that national Democrats were pulling up stakes in CD-6 and abandoning Andrew Romanoff were, well, not so accurate. Reporter Jon Murray tried to clear up some of the rumor mess in a story for the Denver Post, as did The Colorado Independent. Here's the key part of Murray's story:

Here’s more about what happened: The DCCC in May reserved $1.4 million in ad time for late October/early November. But since Colorado’s voters overwhelmingly vote by mail, and ballots go out to them next week, the DCCC also sunk $1.8 million in the past couple weeks on two ads attacking Coffman.

Now, the group is moving the original $1.4 million committed to ad reservations in the Coffman/Romanoff race to rescue Democratic incumbents elsewhere.

Today, Romanoff's campaign took the extra step of releasing internal poll numbers to Fox 31 reporter Eli Stokols. As Stokols reports, the race between Romanoff and incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Coffman is pretty much where everyone thought it was:

Democratic congressional candidate Andrew Romanoff released an internal poll Tuesday showing him trailing Congressman Mike Coffman by just a point, an effort to dispel the notion that the race is trending toward Coffman.

Coffman leads Romanoff by a margin of 44-43 percent in the survey by Chris Keating, a Colorado-based pollster who typically works for Democratic candidates and whose surveys are regarded to be fairly accurate.

In the poll, 13 percent of voters remain undecided.

As for the response from Coffman's campaign? You could probably guess they'd say this: Coffman spokesperson Tyler Sandeberg called the Romanoff poll "garbage." Of course, Coffman's campaign could just as easily have produced their own poll results showing something different, but they probably aren't seeing much difference in their own numbers. The bigger question — whether any polling numbers are relevant anymore — will continue to be discussed long after November 4th. But as far as CD-6 in concerned, we'll repeat our earlier line that this race remains a true toss-up.

 

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32 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. denverco says:

    But we were told as factual that the race was hopeless and that the Dems had given up. How could this be so wrong – who lied?

    • MichaelBowmanMichaelBowman says:

      I wonder how the little plea for dollars from our little watermelon sniper is working out for Coffman.  I was perusing one of my files and found this tweet – didn't Coffman disavow his association with the Tea Party?

      Of course, this is the man that believed the Repubs were going to add seven seats to the Colorado Senate in 2010…

      But not to be outdone, he couldn't help himself railing against the soda tax we have in Colorado with a store clerk in the tribal areas of Dumphuckistan.  Completely missed by the little watermelon farmer is the subsidy on his corn (paid for by all of us) that makes the price of the soda artificially cheap to begin with.  Yes, we must equate this "stupid idea" to the half-brothers Ritter and Obama…

      Yes folks, these are the "Coffman" people.

  2. BlueCatBlueCat says:

    Maybe the Udall and Romanoff campaigns have been keeping their powder dry. New ads rolling out now will be fresh when all the old ads on both sides have become wallpaper.  And the Dem ads are definitely getting noticeably better.

    • JBJK16 says:

      Is there data about Colorado undecided voting early or later?

       

      I mean, besides john caldera moving to C. Springs Nov 1st to vote there.

      • Diogenesdemar says:

        I don't know of any data, but it just seems kinda' logical that if you're undecided that you won't be voting early?

        BTW, does anyone know someone who's really undecided?  (My ballot's already been filled out and mailed back.)

        • Diogenesdemar says:

          PS to Moderatus:  I really had planned to write-in Gessler. Honestly. But, given the shit show that you and that other fucktard have been putting on here, I decided to vote Hickenlooper.  Keep up the good work, assworms!

          • DawnPatrol says:

            You know, it's interesting.

            If the two said fucktards were as convinced of their impending victory as they work so hard to appear to be, you'd think they'd be much less inclined to pollute this site everyday with their vile presence in a desperate, relentless attempt to convince us of how very, very certain they are of their "inevitable" victory….

            Things are not what they seem; the fucktards' actions clearly belie their bravado. Think about it.

            • MichaelBowmanMichaelBowman says:

              Ah, give these ignorant phuckstiks a break.  Howie promised them in training they'd be changing the hearts and minds of people on the interwebs…

               

              • Duke CoxDuke Cox says:

                Thanks for posting that, Michael. I guess the sad part is that tools like our trolls buy into the dishonesty based on the premise that they, too, may one day be part of the 1%.

                tip o' the hat to P.T.Barnum….

            • denverco says:

              Do you remember in 2010, when different trolls did the same thing – just like ac. It was always look at the polls , buck is ahead, buck will win , Colorado will be part of the gop wave. After the election they were never heard from again. ac's ego is so fragile, after the Colorado republicans lose he may need therapy – but he won't have the balls to stick around.

              • MichaelBowmanMichaelBowman says:

                The little phuchstik seems to have an extra ounce-or-two of desperation in his posts this morning.  It is entertaining.  While he's trying to change hearts and minds on the interwebs, our ground game is kicking his sorry ass.  20 more days…

    • Andrew Carnegie says:

      BC, Maybe the powder is wet.

  3. exlurker19 says:

    Here's a biggie problem I see with the polling being done.  I have answered 5 polls in the last 8 days.  The sample sizes seem to run from 700 to under 2000.  But if my poll answers counted–5 of those answers were mine alone.  And all because we still have an antique land line.  Last night the poll was a robo one from the DCCC.  If they're only polling fossil phones, then they're missing most of the electorate.

     

  4. Andrew Carnegie says:

    Let me get this right.

    The DCCC reserved $1.4 million for Romanoff for the last three weeks before the election.  Then they reallocate the funds to other more promising campaigns.

    But do not despair because:

    1.  The DCCC did not know that Colorado had switched to mail in ballots; or

    2.  Romanoff's internal poll, without cross tabs, shows he is only losing by a little bit.

    If that is the best you can do it reinforces what really went on.

    Romanoff is losing and the DCCC does not want to waste any more money on him.

    • gasan says:

      This constant blathering on about the DCCC ad buys seems desperate. We've been over this already. You're going to have to learn a new trick.

    • Gilpin Guy says:

      Believe.  You gotta believe because I told you to believe because I believe.  I really truly believe.  I also believed that Romney was going to wipe with mat with Obama.  I really really believed then but encouraging my chosen candidates to articulate much needed policies that encourage cooperation, compromise and what we can do together.  Not so much because I don't believe that government is a positive institution that can benefit all citizens.  It can only be used as a club to advance my Christian Dominionist belief and to serve the whims of my wealthy masters.

    • ModeratusModeratus says:

      The spin all ends on election day. Can't wait to see what Pols says then.

  5. DenverMom says:

    Andrew is going to win because he has a great GOTV effort.  It is all going to come down to turnout.  

     

    • Andrew Carnegie says:

      Romanoff is going to have the same problem in his suburban district as Udall is having.  The recent CNN Poll showing Udall down by 4 notes:

      "Udall is getting clobbered in the all-important suburbs, as well as in rural areas, and his lead in Colorado cities is not enough to overcome that," Holland said.

      "There is a gender gap, but in this case it appears to be working in favor of the Republican. Udall has a nine-point advantage among women, but that is dwarfed by the 20-point lead Gardner has among men," he said.

    • DawnPatrol says:

      Correct. I've yet to see a poll anywhere that adequately reflects — or even so much as vaguely captures — a superior ground game. This is why our resident trolls are so desperate for us to think that they've already won, and and that we all should just "give up." Apparently, they know us not at all…

      • MichaelBowmanMichaelBowman says:

        I am clearly enjoying his desperation this morning.  Kum on peeple !!!  We're winning!!!!  The Wall Street Journal says so!!!  What an ignorant phuchstik.

        • DawnPatrol says:

          A person genuinely confident in their own abilities and prospects will never spend their time informing everyone else how confident they are. Just the opposite.

          Our trolls are displaying a deep insecurity, and lashing out in response, not unlike your garden-variety playground bully.

          The more they assure us they'll be victorious, the more we can rest assured that they themselves don't actually believe it.

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