President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 11, 2007 09:42 PM UTC
14 Comments
a little weak, but ok. I’m interested to see what kind of cash on hand the candidates have.
That is an interesting view about someone who has raised more than Ed Perlmutter did this quarter, or at this time in his own primary race. I think Pols has it right. This is a strong number.
Ed doesn’t have primary or even major general opposition so it is not an apt comparison.
I said a “little” weak. I expected a 3q fall off (I thought he would be closer to $250K), but there are a lot of people who hate either(both) JFG or JP and he should be making in roads with those people.
Its plenty to stay viable and I know he is running a very lean campaign so he should have a lot of cash on hand.
Did Pols say it was strong or did the press release say it was strong?
I meant more than Ed raised in his primary against Lamm at this point.
Pols:
Democrat Will Shafroth announced today that his campaign for CD-2 raised $208,259 in Q3 – a strong number, but more than $150,000 less than was raised by both Joan Fitz-Gerald and Jared Polis.
Maybe, but not as good as JFG’s number and thats what matters.
I thought what the voters thought is what matters.
How much cash on hand do each of the candidates in CD2 now have? It does you no good if you spend it this early as fast as you raise it.
This is a strong posting at this point in the race. I can assure you the cash-on-hand factor favors Shafroth, as he has been reaching out to the voters by showing up at several community functions without spending much.
All in all, he is a solid candidate with lots of integrity, he will end up being tough to beat…
First, I agree $200k is a decent quarter in a vacuum. But the fact remains that he raised a third less than last quarter, and this third quarter is traditionally a strong one. He therefore has noplace to go but down from here. He has no institutional fundraisers (like JFG) and his individual contributors are far outpaced by Jared’s. Also, 438 total contributors (I’m assuming that’s total, not for this quarter) is very low. JFG and JP are both over 1000. It strongly suggests he has a lot of max-outs or near max-outs, as opposed to JFG and JP who have lots of room to grow.
Second, it is a classic first-time campaign mistake to conserve every dime for the last minute push. You have to spend money a) to raise more money, and b) to raise your name ID and attract votes. With only $80k spent in an entire quarter (or less than $30k a month) he must have at most 2 staff, maybe 3, and few if any paid consultants. Probably no field. That just won’t do it, since he has SO far to go. Even if he enters next Summer with $600k cash on hand (which is unlikely given the fundraising decline from last quarter) that’s only three weeks of TV and nothing else. At some point his donors have to ask: Does he really think he can win entering next July with 10% name ID or whatever? No. No matter how much JFG and JP attack each other.
This race is clearly between JP and JFG. I like Will a lot and think he would make a fine congressman. But I don’t see any realistic path to victory.
Will needs to outraise Joan and Jared. Why is this… TV and Radio. I bet Will’s name ID is maybe 4% across the district. Running 1 TV spot to Joan’s and Jared’s 10 or 15 spots will not help him.
Somehow Joan, with her $600k can run 10 times as many tv ads as Will with his $500k. Yeah. That makes a whole lot of sense…
Emily’s lists, union money and she will continue to raise lots of money when Will drops each reporting period
I think Jared and Joan showed they have the money staying power… while will dropped. Yes will raised good money but he cant keep it up
Whatever…you are basing this on nothing.