President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 08, 2007 11:48 PM UTC
33 Comments
Is the Obama campaign still the only presidential campaign with paid staffers? I know they hired the first paid staffer in the state.
I thought we were at the point where all the serious campaigns (shoo, Mike Gravel!) were paying field staff.
If Hillary isn’t, it’s because she just wasted all her dough on hiring a scumbag crook–Sandy Berger–as a campaign advisor.
Lots of volunteers, lots of energy. The paid staff is a mixed bag, Ray is great, but I don’t know if Ray knows how to manage a staff, but I think the operational plan is solid.
If Colorado is an indication, I think Obama could surprise in Iowa.
could you update the big line?
There is no Big Line for President.
Will be mostly based on momentium and an air war. If Obama doesn’t win IA or NH the best field program in the world wont save him. Having said that if Obama wants to blow his money on a field program now in CO great burn that warchest up.
Colorado isn’t important in the primaries/caucuses….it will all be over by the time we get to add our voices. He’d be better off spending that money in Cedar Rapids, IA; Nashua, NH; or Columbia, SC.
With something like of half od the state Caucusing/primarying on the same day, the candidate who wins big on that day will be the nominee.
Iowa, NH and SC may all be earlier, but combined they represent a very small portion of the delegates at the national convention.
However, the delegate count from the Feb 5th states is something like 60% of the total.
How important will wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida will be? Will their results be a blip on the radar or will they fuel the winners of those states to wins on the Super Tuesday?
And, how will those results play into the future status of Iowa and New Hampshire
Your absolutely right. Clearly, wins build momentum, and the earliest wins, the most momentum. Everyone likes to jump on the early winner’s bandwidth….er, bandwagon.
A win in Iowa or a win in FL, in regards to the rest of the voting states
There are a lot of people in Florida (4th most populous in the nation), but on the Dems side, as things stand now, they won’t be seating Floria delegates at the convention. On the GOP, IIRC, they’re docking the state half of its delegation.
If nothing else, it’s a very elaborate beauty contest.
Because it is a heavily populated state but will not have any voting delegates at the convention. If the top 3 Dems split it, it will be largely irrelevant until it is a D vs. R race in Nov.
But if one Dem does very well in FL, then THAT will have a momentum factor as we move into super-dooper Tuesday. Especially is that same person does very well in the other early states. But if they all hold their own, some peaking in some states while others do better in others, then Feb 5th becomes the potential decider again.
What I would personally love to see is two strong contenders come of out Feb 5th still alive and the rest of the field fall away. But I usually don’t get what I want.
“You can’t usually get what you want”…..but if you try sometime….:-))
And New Hampshire help build momentum, then wouldn’t that cement their places as “first in the nation” by validating those state’s arguments?
The way I figure it, if you want Iowa and New Hampshire to lose their spots then they have to be irrelevant this cycle, no?
Whoever takes the early caucuses/primaries will be the “important” states, whether it’s the current set or some arbitrary new early primary states. The media does their best to play it up, and it works.
that took away most of their delegates? I thought the Republicans weren’t taking all of them…or at least as many as the Dems were
Media presence is also useful. Having Florida and Michigan running earlier primaries (theoretically – IA is talking about moving up to Jan. 3 and NH is talking of following to Jan. 8) gives those two states at least a media buy-in to selecting the next Presidential candidate. If they can shift the momentum of the campaigns, then they’ve accomplished at least some of their goals.
And yes, the current ruling of the DNC is that FL loses *all* of its delegates. It remains to be seen what the final result will be; Michigan has also moved itself to the front of the line, and Iowa and New Hampshire are looking to leapfrog in front of both of them and also risk the wrath of the DNC. (Party rules limit IA, NH, SC, and NV to certain earliest dates as well.) I’m guessing that the DNC will be pressured to back down, but anything less penalizing than half-delegate status would require a change in the party rules.
….and then allow a credentials committee fight which will ultimately be decided by the successful prez candidate (presumably HRC)?
Unless, of course they wanted to lose Florida. Even if Iowa and NH got pissed and voted against HRC for that reason alone, it’s a smart move politically
What is the point of having rules if your don’t enforce them? I feel the whole process is moving too early anyway so I hope the DNC will stand its ground and stop the foolishness.
I CAN imagine a scenario where the “winner” of the primaries refuses to seat Florida, but it’s not likely.
Picture it, June 2008. Hillary has come through the primary a little beaten up but with about 50 delegates more than the combined Edwards/Obama ticket (or reverse the order of that ticket if you wish) has.
That lead holds until you add the disqualified Florida delegation which consists of 140 Edwards and Obama delegates and 70 Clinton delegates. That tips the balance towards Edwards/Obama.
I would have to put FL in the leans Rep catagory, just because I think that a lot of Dems would be demoralized and wouldn’t have the strong urge to work their butts off for Hillary. Not seating FL’s delegates would almost certainly be disasterous for whomever gets the dem nomination
…..at this rate, the only states that are guaranteed seating are Iowa, Nevada, N.H., and S.C.
The GOP, in an uncharacteristic display of taking a measured response, is only docking those states half of their delegates AND allowing GOP candidates to campaign in these states.
75 delegates, at the most? So under that, would the Dems even be able to nominate someone? 🙂
That is the decision of the FDP. The Credentials Committee can’t just override the current DNC rules; the best they can do is rule that half the delegates can be seated. The DNC as a whole would have to vote to change their rules, and the nominee won’t have control of the DNC at that point in the process.
the front loaded primaries fall like dominos. If we really wanted to make IA & NH irrelivent we’d hold the rest of the primaries further apart to give people time to recover from the bandwagon effect.
That’s been Giuliani’s strategy on the GOP side, although lately he’s been making a move in N.H. in trying to overtake the “Two Faced One.”
I’m not sure it’s gonna work the same way for the Dems. If H.R.C. wins all of the first four states (or maybe even three), it’s over.
Even if she slips up and losses a couple of them, Obama’s the only one who’s in a position to run successfully against her in any of the other states.
Edwards can go nowhere after Iowa, even if he wins. Obama is laying the groundwork for the subsequent states, while hoping that he and/or Edwards can trip Hillary up in a couple of the early states.
the old gripes are of candidate ignoring Colorado. Now that one has set up an office here, and is taking more than a 4 state strategy, the “strategists” come out in favor of ignoring this state?
Not much, but I’m still paid.
Skyler McKinley
Colorado State Director
Mike Gravel for President 2008
smckinley@gravel2008.us