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September 20, 2007 06:29 PM UTC

Is Hillary a Lock?

  • 17 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols


State 38 asks that very question:

Yesterday’s New York Times featured a small article about the increasingly contentious ‘relationship’ between the presidential campaigns of John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. Clinton had held a $1,000 per person fundraising luncheon at the Washington offices of the Jones Day law firm, and the Edwards campaign predictably and quickly criticized the Clinton campaign for being a “corporate Democratic insider”. Clinton’s camp immediately responded with their own snarky language about the desperation of a “flagging campaign”, and there was no sense that the Edwards campaign had made even the smallest dent in Clinton’s solid lead in the September polls.

All this leads to the question, can the Clinton campaign be stopped? Or are they now nearly a lock for the nomination?

Comments

17 thoughts on “Is Hillary a Lock?

  1. but why not just admit your cross posting here? I don’t really care about it except that in one place your not anonymous and in the other you are. It just doesn’t seem completely honest.

      1. I agree with the parent: if someone posting as Colorado Pols is the author of the State 38 post, then just admit it…

        I don’t care if you’re not all the same people, just whether or not this is a forward or a cross-post.

  2. before a single primary.  I am probably just niave, but I do not see how anyone can lock up a nomination before a single vote has been cast.  There are lots of twists and turns to come.

    1. If the primary were held today Hillary would win. However, I agree that the case of Howard Dean demonstrates that polls taken prior to the primary should be interpreted with a grain of salt. Dean lost the lead in less than a month. There are several months until the primaries begin. It is entirely possible that Hillary could also lose the lead.

       

      1. Dean actually lost the lead in 8 days.  8 DAYS!!!  He led the Des Moines Register poll 8 days before the Iowa Caucus and was third in the poll released the Sunday before the caucuses which is of course where he finished.  I only remember b/c I was there.

        So yes, I’ve gotta agree w/ you 100%.  There’s a lot of time left in this race.

    2. There are a myriad of differences between Howard Dean the candidate and Hillary Clinton the candidate. Hillary is more experienced and well known than Dean.

      I see what you are saying and agree with you to a degree, the old “you never know.” But Clinton is a different kind of candidate.

      1. But it also doesnt take long to piss off Iowa caucus-goers.

        Hillary is a much better candidate…but if she finds some way to irk Iowans, this whole thing could shift in a week.

    3. Hillary has maintained her lead for almost a year now, at best Dean was leading the pack for a couple of months and people never really knew much about him.  People very clearly know Clinton and if Obama isn’t willing to attack her then she gets it.  If Obama does attack her he’s a hypocrit and probably loses. 

    1. Dean and Clinton were running two very different types of campaigns and are two completely different types of candidates.

      Dean was the “insurgent” candidate (more like Obama and Edwards this time around); Clinton is the “establishment” candidate (like Kerry was last time).

      If there was just one insurgent candidate this time instead of two splitting the anti-Clinton/anti-establishment candidate vote, it would be more of horserace.  I still think Clinton would win as most current polling shows her beating both Edwards and Obama when their numbers are combined.  I also think the compressed primary/caucus calendar works to her advantage.

  3. The fact of the matter is, the Iowa polls DON’T show Hillary running away with the race.  They show a very tight race.  IF the assumption is that she is inevitable, and suddenly she comes in second in Iowa, then this whole thing could open up quickly.

    And the interesting thing about the Iowa polls is that the candidates aren’t really advertising much.  Once they are all up on TV, the Iowa polls will shift.  Once the IA Caucuses are over, then we can start talking about momentum and inevitability.

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