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August 30, 2007 12:10 AM UTC

Who Will Win? (CD2)

  • 16 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols


We’ve been running monthly polls asking who you think will win the respective nominations for President, and we’re now going to start asking you about local races each month.

Click below to vote, and remember – we want to know who you think is going to win this race, not who you support, so that we can get a sense of changing perceptions in these races.

Who Do You Think Will Win the CD-2 Primary?

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Comments

16 thoughts on “Who Will Win? (CD2)

      1. There is no evidence that a woman wins because she is a woman. It didn’t happen for Peggy Lamm and it didn’t happen for Beth McCann (2004 Denver DA race).

        1. With Perlmutter/Lamm, that was basically a two person race – Rubenstein had no money, and thus very little public awareness about him.  Further, Perlmutter had far more money available for TV.  As I recall, Perlmutter and Lamm raised far less than the three in CD-2 are likely to raise/spend.

          As for the DA race, that’s a whole different animal than a Democratic primary. 

          In a Democratic primary, candidates have trouble distinguishing themselves along ideological lines (if they all have sufficient funds to be heard).  They can all voice strong support for gov’t action to improve schools, boost health care, make the world a more liberal place, blah, blah, blah.  With enough of these ads, candidates all look alike (like soap).  When primary voters can’t distinguish between candidates along ideological lines, they fall back on secondary issues, like gender preference.

          That’s why I think JFG has the advantage and will likely win.  Both of her male opponents look like they will raise plenty of money, and have hired professional campaign people, and thus will likely package themselves similarly.  The only difference none of them can change is gender.

  1. WS runs a lean campaign right around the brawling big two.

    If he can continue to raise real money and he saves his money for a 3 weak ad burst he will get the name recognition. 

    He can easily cloak himself in the mantel of Udall and Tim Wirth who he resembles more than the other candidates.

    If he can get the greens working for him on the ground he will win.

  2. Polis will eventually resort to the exhorbitant level of self-funded campaigning as he did and barely beat his Republican opponent for the State Board position, an incumbent who spent all of $10,000.  Joan will have more than that to spend and for a job that means something. Not even Polis’ money will carry this one, not with 41 hanging around his neck.  . 

      1. You think people like thinking they are voting for one thing and getting another? I know that there are arguments that it is just he state legislature, and the judicial branch who got it wrong, and the supporters got it right. But most people aren’t going to see all that. All they are going to see was they were told they were voting on lobbyists and it ended up affecting kid’s scholarships. After that it doesn’t matter what reality is (and by the way, the judicial branch and the legislature got it right…any other reading would go against hundreds of years of statutory interpretation saying that the words of the text rule).

        1. that says people in CD-2 are pissed at Jared for 41 then I’ll believe it.  I really don’t think most people even know about that and if they do I don’t think they blame JP for it.  If there is a poll that proves me wrong I’d love to see it.

          1. Most voters, even primary voters, don’t have time to dig into the minutia. 

            However, he did piss off a lot of activists with his heavy handed approach.  That matters.

            As to the popularity of A41.  I think many people regret their vote–Anecdotally it is true, but I would like to see polling on that.

                1. I bet the Bush administration is feeling the same way. Too bad that isn’t how politics works in America. Of course someone who is ultra-rich would like that, since that person could buy the most media.

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