March 05, 2007 08:08 AM UTC

5th CD R's repudiate Lamborn's supporters. Williams walks.CFG next? Doug to petition on '08 ballot?

• 10 Comments
• by: DemoGirl

In 2006, Doug Lamborn won the Republican primary with a less-than-overwhelming 27 percent of the vote.  Since taking office in 2007, his impotence in local Republican party politics has been demonstrated by one major setback after another in Republican county politics in all the counties comprising the Congressional 5th CD.  Doug Lamborn’s candidate for the Chairmanship of the Republican 5th Congressional District Committee, Wayne Williams, apparently was a “no-show” at the ballotting, with the result that Bob Balink, a known Jeff Crank supporter, was the winner by acclamation.

What do  these setbacks  portend for Lamborn’s future, including, for example, the prospects that he will have to petition onto the ballot in 2008 and bypass the Republican caucuses? What do they portend for the political future of those local (5th CD) Republicans who were most closely identified with supporting Lamborn’s campaign ethics in 2006?

AND, THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION: Is the Club for Growth backing out of Lamborn’s 2008 campaign?

If the e-mail I had late this afternoon is correct, then the biggest and most recent setback to date demonstrating Lamborn’s impotence happened just yesterday.  Wayne Williams was a “no-show” at the ballotting for the chairmanship for the Republican 5th Congressional District Committee, with the result that Bob Balink, a known Jeff Crank supporter, was the winner by acclamation. 

No matter the spin, no matter the stated reason for El Paso County Commissioner Wayne Williams’ failing to show for the election that Lamborn wanted Williams to win, Williams demonstrated his sense of political survival while doing Doug Lamborn no favors and embarrassing Lamborn with his failure to show:
SEE:http://www.coloradop…

Williams’ “walk”, following as closely as it does on the heels of: 1) Lamborn’s failing to get his slate elected to any leadership positions in El Paso County and, 2) as well as Lamborn’s failing to get his slate of Republican bonus members elected,  are additional evidence of Lamborn’s impotence. 
SEE:http://www.coloradop…

What do  these setbacks  portend for Lamborn’s future, including, for example, the prospects that he will have to petition on the ballot in 2008 and bypass the Republican caucuses?

1.  Love him or hate him, Pat Tumor, of the Club for Growth, as a Harvard educated investment banker, will recognize Lamborn as a bad investment.  These sorts of misteps by Lamborn will be made known to Tumor by both friend and foe alike.  Pat Tumor cannot have his CFG and its supporters spending up to a million dollars to put someone like Lamborn in office for 2 years, only to have just one term in office.  That’s a terrible pay back on the investment.
PREDICTION:  While the Sleeze Brothers will still be in Lamborn’s camp in 2008, the CFG will recognize Lamborn has only one term and will not financially back Lamborn in 2008.

2.  Lamborn’s campaign ethics  in 2006 surely did not settle well with many early endorsers who didn’t have, unlike then Republican Senator Lew Entz–didn’t have the moral conviction to withdraw their endorsements of Lamborn during the primary, causing their personal reputations to suffer by their silence.  Some obviously did not know what was going on in their name as part of Lamborn’s endorsement team, while others, like Wayne Williams, did. 
PREDICTION:  Look for losses of several key endorsements for Lamborn in 2008.  Could Hank Brank be one who, with time to genuflect on 2006 and its aftermath, doesn’t want to be seen as endorsing Lamborn’s sense of ethics?

3.  On another gauge of who’s “in” and who’s “out” in Republican [and Democrat circles], consider this:  While a seat at Colonel Fawcett’s table at a Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner would be one which no Democrat would be ashamed to take for fear of being associated with his campaign, what about a seat at Doug Lamborn’s table with the Sleeze Brothers at a Republican Lincoln Day Dinner in the various counties in the 5th CD?  With Lamborn’s low numbers in the primary, with the results of the race for bonus members, party leadership positions, Chairmanship of the Republican 5th Congressional District Committee, and countless other manifestations of the disavowal of Doug Lamborn as Congressman, here’s my prediction on the popularity of such seats at Lamborn’s table at Lincoln Day Dinners:
PREDICTION:  Paid staff members and family members will be pressed into service to fill the slots.  Doug Bruce may be seen at Lamborn’s table, but Republicans who want to avoid the blowback from being seen as a Lamborn supporter–perhaps rubbing shoulders with the Sleeze Brothers and Doug Lamborn all at the same time, will want to shy away–if they have a developed sense of political survival.  Being seen at Lamborn’s table may put one  in the category of “not to be trusted” by the 73% of the Republicans who did not vote for Lamborn in the primary.  By contrast, seats at Jeff Crank’s table will be the hot tickets to have, with Bentley Rayburn’s a lukewarm but respectable table at which to be seen. 

CONCLUSIONS:
1.  All the referendums held to date on Lamborn evidence he will NOT get top line on the Republican primary ballot in 2008, a humiliating development for a humiliated incumbent.
2.  If only a two man race against Jeff Crank, Doug Lamborn, with more than 70% of the Republicans voting against him in 2006, has to face the prospect his unpopularity and deservedly poor reputation place him in the position of getting less than 30% of the ballots at the 5th CD Convention, meaning he cannot petition on the ballot.  If the race is only a two man race, Lamborn may opt to petition on the ballot, and by-pass the nominating convention as did one or more Republican candidates in 2006.  In a two man race, Crank cleans up with Lamborn getting no more than the 27% he did in 2007.
3. If a three man race against Jeff Crank and Benley Rayburn, Lamborn may opt to stay within the caucus system as the political calculus is different then but still not sufficiently in his favor for Lamborn to get top line on the primary ballot.  If three men go to the primary:  Crank, Rayburn, and Lamborn, Crank wins with more than 50% of the total vote, Lamborn comes in last with less than 20% of the vote.