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March 05, 2007 08:08 AM UTC

5th CD R's repudiate Lamborn's supporters. Williams walks.CFG next? Doug to petition on '08 ballot?

  • by: DemoGirl

In 2006, Doug Lamborn won the Republican primary with a less-than-overwhelming 27 percent of the vote.  Since taking office in 2007, his impotence in local Republican party politics has been demonstrated by one major setback after another in Republican county politics in all the counties comprising the Congressional 5th CD.  Doug Lamborn’s candidate for the Chairmanship of the Republican 5th Congressional District Committee, Wayne Williams, apparently was a “no-show” at the ballotting, with the result that Bob Balink, a known Jeff Crank supporter, was the winner by acclamation.

What do  these setbacks  portend for Lamborn’s future, including, for example, the prospects that he will have to petition onto the ballot in 2008 and bypass the Republican caucuses? What do they portend for the political future of those local (5th CD) Republicans who were most closely identified with supporting Lamborn’s campaign ethics in 2006?

AND, THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION: Is the Club for Growth backing out of Lamborn’s 2008 campaign?

If the e-mail I had late this afternoon is correct, then the biggest and most recent setback to date demonstrating Lamborn’s impotence happened just yesterday.  Wayne Williams was a “no-show” at the ballotting for the chairmanship for the Republican 5th Congressional District Committee, with the result that Bob Balink, a known Jeff Crank supporter, was the winner by acclamation. 

No matter the spin, no matter the stated reason for El Paso County Commissioner Wayne Williams’ failing to show for the election that Lamborn wanted Williams to win, Williams demonstrated his sense of political survival while doing Doug Lamborn no favors and embarrassing Lamborn with his failure to show:

Williams’ “walk”, following as closely as it does on the heels of: 1) Lamborn’s failing to get his slate elected to any leadership positions in El Paso County and, 2) as well as Lamborn’s failing to get his slate of Republican bonus members elected,  are additional evidence of Lamborn’s impotence. 

What do  these setbacks  portend for Lamborn’s future, including, for example, the prospects that he will have to petition on the ballot in 2008 and bypass the Republican caucuses?

1.  Love him or hate him, Pat Tumor, of the Club for Growth, as a Harvard educated investment banker, will recognize Lamborn as a bad investment.  These sorts of misteps by Lamborn will be made known to Tumor by both friend and foe alike.  Pat Tumor cannot have his CFG and its supporters spending up to a million dollars to put someone like Lamborn in office for 2 years, only to have just one term in office.  That’s a terrible pay back on the investment.
PREDICTION:  While the Sleeze Brothers will still be in Lamborn’s camp in 2008, the CFG will recognize Lamborn has only one term and will not financially back Lamborn in 2008.

2.  Lamborn’s campaign ethics  in 2006 surely did not settle well with many early endorsers who didn’t have, unlike then Republican Senator Lew Entz–didn’t have the moral conviction to withdraw their endorsements of Lamborn during the primary, causing their personal reputations to suffer by their silence.  Some obviously did not know what was going on in their name as part of Lamborn’s endorsement team, while others, like Wayne Williams, did. 
PREDICTION:  Look for losses of several key endorsements for Lamborn in 2008.  Could Hank Brank be one who, with time to genuflect on 2006 and its aftermath, doesn’t want to be seen as endorsing Lamborn’s sense of ethics?

3.  On another gauge of who’s “in” and who’s “out” in Republican [and Democrat circles], consider this:  While a seat at Colonel Fawcett’s table at a Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner would be one which no Democrat would be ashamed to take for fear of being associated with his campaign, what about a seat at Doug Lamborn’s table with the Sleeze Brothers at a Republican Lincoln Day Dinner in the various counties in the 5th CD?  With Lamborn’s low numbers in the primary, with the results of the race for bonus members, party leadership positions, Chairmanship of the Republican 5th Congressional District Committee, and countless other manifestations of the disavowal of Doug Lamborn as Congressman, here’s my prediction on the popularity of such seats at Lamborn’s table at Lincoln Day Dinners:
PREDICTION:  Paid staff members and family members will be pressed into service to fill the slots.  Doug Bruce may be seen at Lamborn’s table, but Republicans who want to avoid the blowback from being seen as a Lamborn supporter–perhaps rubbing shoulders with the Sleeze Brothers and Doug Lamborn all at the same time, will want to shy away–if they have a developed sense of political survival.  Being seen at Lamborn’s table may put one  in the category of “not to be trusted” by the 73% of the Republicans who did not vote for Lamborn in the primary.  By contrast, seats at Jeff Crank’s table will be the hot tickets to have, with Bentley Rayburn’s a lukewarm but respectable table at which to be seen. 

1.  All the referendums held to date on Lamborn evidence he will NOT get top line on the Republican primary ballot in 2008, a humiliating development for a humiliated incumbent.
2.  If only a two man race against Jeff Crank, Doug Lamborn, with more than 70% of the Republicans voting against him in 2006, has to face the prospect his unpopularity and deservedly poor reputation place him in the position of getting less than 30% of the ballots at the 5th CD Convention, meaning he cannot petition on the ballot.  If the race is only a two man race, Lamborn may opt to petition on the ballot, and by-pass the nominating convention as did one or more Republican candidates in 2006.  In a two man race, Crank cleans up with Lamborn getting no more than the 27% he did in 2007.
3. If a three man race against Jeff Crank and Benley Rayburn, Lamborn may opt to stay within the caucus system as the political calculus is different then but still not sufficiently in his favor for Lamborn to get top line on the primary ballot.  If three men go to the primary:  Crank, Rayburn, and Lamborn, Crank wins with more than 50% of the total vote, Lamborn comes in last with less than 20% of the vote.


10 thoughts on “5th CD R’s repudiate Lamborn’s supporters. Williams walks.CFG next? Doug to petition on ’08 ballot?

    1. Making it his number one campaign promise of virtually promised he’d have a seat on the Armed Services Committee,  he is now proudly advising on his 5th CD site that he is “on leave” from that committee.  Pretty lame.  “On leave.”  LOL

  1. Lamborn poisoned the well in the ’06 primary and is easily the least respected elected official in the El Paso County Republican Party.  You have to do a lot to anger Joel Hefley to the point he won’t endorse you as a Republican, but Lamborn did it.

    Jeff Crank is out making speaches and it is pretty obvious that he is going to mount a primary challenge next year.  Joel Hefley stood aside during the primary, (even though anyone who was paying attention knew he favored Jeff Crank) and only spoke out against Lamborn when the apparent collusion between the Lamborn campaign and the smear commercials became clear.  Expect former Congressman Hefley to be active in any Crank campaign this time around.

    If the only way that Lamborn could get on the primary ballot is to petition and avoid any contest at the convention, he will be fork-ready.  No incumbant that has to get on the ballot that way has any chance.

  2. Wayne Williams no-show is certainly an interesting event. Make not mistake however… this “lining up of the ducks” (so to speak) is not in favor of just any candidate. Apparently the 15+ year investment Crank has made into the 5th CD is paying dividends despite (or because of?) a significant ’06 loss to Lamborn.

    At this juncture no third party candidate (Wayne Williams, Lionel Rivera, Rayburn, etc.) even stands a chance of matching the apparent organization of Crank’s people.

    Lamborn better start making a move or else he will be a no more than a passing thought before he’s a distant memory.

  3. an individual entry, but this morning on the radio I heard an ad from the Chamber of Commerce asking people to thank Lamborn on his vote concerning the labor bill now going through Congress.  When it started it sounded just like a campaign ad!  I seriously thought for about 10-20 seconds that Lamborn had already started his campaign!  Maybe someone else is trying to do so under the radar.

    I have heard ads asking people to call their representatives to support or oppose legislation, but I can’t remember the last time I heard an ad asking for calls to an elected official to thank them for their vote.  And the way it was phrased had to be deliberate to make you think of an election.  It sounds like maybe Lamborn’s supporters are worried and are trying to put a more positive face on him.

    1. dont like Lamborn and are probably going to unite strongly behind Crank as soon as he announces.  I am sure that whichever CoC sponsored the add only meant it as a political statement for that particular bill. 

      1. Jeff Crank was a Senior Vice President in the local CoC so it would seem odd that they would back Lamborn now.  It was the tone of the ad that got me.  It was on AM 740 KVOR during the morning news.  I don’t know if you are down here in the Springs, but if you catch it, let me know what you think of how it sounded.

  4. good post DemoGirl.  From what I have heard, Rayburn has turned his ambitions toward Senate and is not considering taking on Lamborn in CD5.  If that is the case, the door is wide open for Crank to pound Lamborn in the primary.  While it is hard to take on an incumbent, I think Crank can and will walk all over Lamborn in the upcoming race.  Here is why:

    1.  The election cycle is starting early this time.  While there is normally downtime between elections that smooth over hurt feelings, this cycle things are already starting.  This hurts Lamborn badly because people are already gearing up for 08 (for which the Assembly is about one year away).  I dont see the wounds healing that fast, and I think Crank can exploit it.  Furthermore, the other candidates are probably more inclined to throw their support behind Crank (list of volunteers, donors, ect.) because they are still freshly pissed at Lamborn.

    2.  Lamborn was, is, and always will be lazy.  While highly ambitious to become Congressman, he really has no work ethic.  This did not hurt him too badly in the primary because the CFG just wrote the check to get him elected.  Where his laziness will really hurt him is in the assembly.  Lamborn and his supporters are highly ideologically based, but are not the hardest workers.  Thus, they will show up at the caucuses; but I dont think they will be well organized.  On the other hand, Crank will have a complete network up and running to unseat as many of Lamborn’s supporters at the assembly as possible.

    Because of this, I agree with DemiGirl that Lamborn may have to petition onto the ballot.  He will struggle to get the 30% he needs at the assembly.  If Crank can keep Lamborn below 30%, I think it will break Lamborn’s political back.  He will be strongly pressured to drop out of the race by the political power brokers so that they can focus on the Senate race. 

    Its hard to believe that the caucuses are just a year out, but this election cycle is coming up way faster than any I can remember. 

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