There are multiple and compelling arguments for persuading General Rayburn to pursue a title change to “Senator.”
1.) It’s important for McInnis (and Rayburn) to have a primary. Udall will be a strong candidate and it will be important for the conservative candidate to have his mettle strengthened through a positive and vigorous issues debate.
2.) We all know that it’s “all about the money, stupid.” If Rayburn can be enough of a politician to court and win them, Schaffer and Lamborn are important pieces of his financial picture. If he can capture funds from Colorado (non)Christian (divisive)Coalition and the always interesting Club (baby seals?) for Growth then he has a real shot at being competitive with McInnis. Lamborn and Schaffer deliver very important money and political connections.
3.) Geographic / Demographic realities work to Rayburn’s favor. El Paso County delivers the excess votes needed to make up for lost ground from the more left-leaning areas in Colorado, most notably Denver and Boulder. Look at both Owens’ gubnatorial bids… El Paso County was the deciding factor to deliver victory.
4.) If Schaffer is wise he’ll make politically savvy alliances with McInnis and Rayburn. Regardless of how things end up he will be in prime position to enter the race against Salazar in two years. He should consider a private deal with McInnis for future cooperation and a public endorsement of Rayburn.
5.) Rayburn has the credentials and the sand to walk into a Senate race like few individuals do. His military credentials are impeccable and his lack of a record will serve him well. Some have bandied about the idea of a second CD-5 run… this pundit’s opinion is that it’s really almost too small a pond for Rayburn’s depth and capacity. If Rayburn runs for the Senate (and – quite importantly – resists any temptation to endorse in CD-5) then El Paso County (and the four others in CD-5) will congeal for him and he will make a very strong showing.
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It’s too late for Rayburn to get in the race. Although I agree with many of the points made above it doesn’t rescue the time scenario. And, quite frankly, I attended several CD-5 events and am not convinced the General can handle himself on the platform with the big boys.
The more important question is whether there is “too little” and on that we’re talking cash. That’s where the Club for Growth has proven it can take a third rate Republican mayor from Rhode Island and come within a hair of beating the incumbent Republican senator in the primary. The power of incumbency is great. McInnis does not have that. His $1M is chump change compared to what the Club for Growth will do for Rayburn, IF he gets the CFG’s endorsement. McInnis will not win if the CFG endorses Rayburn . . . and it has lots of time in which to make a decision to do that.
Don’t hold it against me but… I agree with DemoGirl on this one. It’s definitely not too late for Rayburn to capture CFG money.