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November 22, 2006 08:52 PM UTC

New Big Line

  • by: Colorado Pols

We’ve updated the Big Line just in time for Thanksgiving, to give you something to digest over the long weekend.

We added Attorney General John Suthers to the Senate Line because he is very likely to throw his name in the ring should Wayne Allard ride off into the sunset.

We also added Secretary of State-elect Mike Coffman to the CD-6 Line; Coffman ran for SOS because there was nothing else available, but he has always had his eyes on a bigger seat and would likely jump at the chance to run in CD-6 if Tom Tancredo makes a U.S. Senate run.


32 thoughts on “New Big Line

      1. It comes and goes but most often the “Q&A’s” is there.  I’ve thought it was a clever marketing tool to get you to check back to see if it has changed to show the Big Line.  It works! 🙂

  1. I don’t think Udall will even come close but I’m with you on the rest of it.

    As much as I’d rather see Jeff Crank in there Lamborn is safe and I wouldn’t want to rock the boat.  I’d much rather see some pressure on Lamborn to go off and do something else with his life in a few years so Crank (quite a young guy)can run and win.  Jeff is a potential governor/senate candidate down the line, too.

  2. pressure on Allard to run again.  Given what just happened, the last thing the National Republican Party wants is an open Republican senate seat to defend.  Udall will have a tremendous money advantage over anyone except McInnis or Tancredo.  Tancredo because as a sitting member of congress he can raise big bucks; McInnis because he is already sitting on $1Million in his campaign account.

    Having said that, Udall with his $1Million already in the bank can probably stay ahead of Allard, Tancredo or McInnis in the money game.  He and McInnis start at the same point, but Udall will find it easier to raise money than will McInnis because Mark is still in congress (in the majority) and Scott isn’t.  Majority status helps Mark against Tancredo as well in the dollar for dollar game.

    Allard starts behind the curve.  He only has $116K in the bank.  Even if he starts active fund raising now he cannot catch Udall who will also be actively raising money now.

  3. My gosh, I hope Tom Tancredo runs for the Colorado Senate (and loses) so that my own district can get ethical, honest, courageous and gentlemanly representation in the form of Mike Coffman. I’m a Democrat but would be proud to vote for Coffman.

    Nothing made me feel better than to see Coffman and Gordon standing side by side pledging to work for a better Secretary of State’s office. I know they would have done the same thing had Gordon run. These are two class acts and dedicated public servants: totally different than the current blowhard, chickenhawk and freeloader who pushes his pet issue (and book sales) while doing nothing of substance for his district.

      1. Kathy Hartman just got elected, to her first public office.  Her experience previously in the nonprofit sector is admirable, but she was fortunate to be a Dem candidate running against a Republican who had replaced another commissioner eight months or so earlier.

        In short, Hartman is good, but not Big Line material.

        1. didn’t Hartman rack up more votes than Ed Perlmutter this cycle?

          I’d say she merits big line consideration.

          She shouldn’t even consider making the race unless Tancredo jumps for the senate seat (please, God, let him)….

  4. The rationale of the-GOP-has-to-keep-his-seat-so-he’d-have-to-run-again can be argued both ways if the GOP were in the minority (and need to keep the seat to regain the majority) or if they were in the majority (and need to keep it).  So, realistically either way, there’s never a good time or bad time to retire–Allard should just do it if it feels right.  Maybe he should have a chat with Nighthorse about all the fun Ben is having in retirement.  It’ll be interesting to see what other states’ Senate races are in play in 2008, which will also be influenced by the national race for President.

  5. Unlike in 2004, when the GOP had Tweedle-dum (Coors) and Tweedle-dee (Schaffer) for Senate, in 2008 the GOP actually has some good possible candidates this time.  Combine that with Coloradopols’ correct assertion that Udall is not a Ritter & Salazar and you have a very difficult race for the Dems to win.  Again, though the national scene will also heavily affect this race.

  6. From a middle of the road Dem. I think Allard will do fine if he decides to run again.  But should he choose to honor his pledge, the GOP should still keep the seat.  Mark Udall is not a likable guy and he’s not a middle of the road Dem like Salazar and Ritter.  That’s the kind of Dem that wins here in Colorado. 

    If the Dems really want to win they’ll throw out John Salazar (who is soooo likeable it kills me).  He probably would beat most Republicans if he runs a good campaign.

    I must say, though, that if I were a liberal this would make me rather gloomy.  If you are a liberal, would you say you’re team is doing well in the state?  Did you win this year?  You can gush over Bill Ritter’s unremarkable win but let it be tempered by the fact that most conservatives find the guy likeable and unthreatening to conservative values.  He’ll probably do some dumb things that make me cringe but at the end of the day I’ll probably look back with some respect for him. Much like Ken Salazar.  I wouldn’t vote for him but I’ve got no big problem with him being in the Senate.

    Granted, for the left in Colorado a centrist Democrat is better than a conservative Republican.  But how much of a liberal agenda do you expect to get passed?  Ken Salazar could never vote like John Kerry and get re-elected, but Wayne Allard votes like Tom Coburn (Wayne is, in fact, the most conservative senator in the Senate) and gets re-elected.  He doesn’t worry about going too far to the right but Salazar carefully walks the middle line never going too far left.

    What does that say for liberalism in Colorado?  it says, to me anyway, that we live in a conservative state where Colorado values (if not politics) have a decidedly red hue.

    1. Democrats in Colorado are a moderate bunch.  Much like Republicans in Maine are a moderate bunch.  Do you really think that conservative Republicans in Maine are thrilled with Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, two pro-choice, pro-gay rights, anti-tax cutting Republicans as their standard-bearers?

      That said, I consider myself to be quite moderate (some of my positions on crime and justice would likely position me to the right of you FFF), but I am a proud democrat.

      You see, our party is the party of the big tent–that is why we won this year.  There are fewer single issue voters among our group than there are among yours–witness what y’all did to State Rep. Ramey Johnson two years ago and again this year.

      I would say that Colorado is quite blue at this point (both houses of the state legislature, the governor’s mansion and a majority of our representation in Washington are all Democrat) but the blue is light blue.  We are not Massachusetts or Illinois, but we certainly are not Idaho or Utah either.

      1. Republicans in Maine are probably not terribly thrilled with Snowe and Colllins.  Democrats here are probably not terribly thrilled with Salazar and Ritter.

        Maine, although technically “red,” is still a very liberal state.  The silly red/blue divide means very little anymore.  Colorado is probably a blue state.  Yet it is waaaaay more conservative than “red” connecticut or Maine.

        I would much rather call conservative states “red” and liberal states “blue.”  Then we can again find Colorado to be a rosy red color.

        You, as a “moderate Democrat,” are probably very happy.  But the base of your party is not at all like you and given that the best they can get it moderates, they are probably not so happy.  Conservatives in Maine are probably contentedly stuck with center-left Republicans.  That in itself is a commnetary on Maine’s liberalism.  Our Democrat Party is commentary on Colorado’s conservatism.

        1. Maine has a Democrat governor and democrats control both houses of the legislature and both of their members of the US house are Democrats.  Snowe and Collins are “red” exceptions to the “blue” rule of Maine.

          Colorado has a Democrat governor, both houses of the state legislature are controlled by Democrats and we send more Democrats than Republicans to Washington. 

          Colorado is a moderate state. It just so happens that Democrats are more moderate in Colorado than are Republicans.

        2. http://www.thegreenp

          The Green Papers, Statewide Political Party Strength (link above) identifies Maine (as of 2004) as a state that leans Democrat.  Color it more blue than red. 

          It’s almost an ethnocentristic idea (if I can apply it that way in a political context) to argue that a Maine Republican is not pleased with Snowe and Collins–as if Republicans are uniformly of the same mindset across the country (or Democrats, for that matter). 

          I submit that the Republicans in Maine are fine with Snowe and Collins.  But, that’s where Republicans get in trouble, such as the RINO Republican PAC, the Club for Growth–who think that you have to kill off any Republican that isn’t the “local brand”. 

          Snowe and Collins are two Republican senators on the Club for Growth’s hit lists.  Convert or die is the CFG’s motto.  That is fine with Democrats.  The CFG killed Chafee in Rhode Island.  Now, go for two more Republicans in Maine and add two more Democrats to the Democrat majority!

          1. But it puts Colorado as the 6th most Republican state in the nation.  If you’re right about Maine then you’d have to argue that Colorado is flaming red.

            But, to be honest, I don’t put much credence in this red/blue dichotomy.  I look at the culture and initiative voting of the states.  I spent a year in college in Oregon which had a split legislature, barely got the Dem in for guv, has a split congressional and senate delegation.  But let me tell you–that state is American in name only.  They are flaming liberals up there!

            They voted, miraculously, for their marriage amendment and they are notoriously anti-tax, but other than that, they are very left-wing.  Colorado may now be dominated by centrist Dems but it’s still about as conservative as it was 10 years ago.  Latinos have changed the political, but not cultural, climate around here giving Dems a much better shot at winning elections here.

            Colorado is still conservative.  The everyday values, even if they are not expressed politically (though they often are), of most Colorado families are fundamentally conservative.  People here value families, they are generally people of faith, and they love this country for the freedom she provides.  They want economic growth and good schools that don’t undermine their values they try to teach their children. 

            I’ll bet that even the “middle of the road Dems” on this site want their kids to wait until marriage for sex, have a good job and children, make a good living, and live a decent, moral life.

            As I get older I realize how much political parties matter for politics but not values.  When you get the core of Colorado families and what they believe, we don’t use words like “gerrymandering, judicial activism, incentivizing economic growth, or Senatorial courtesy.”  We use words like “family, faith, freedom, loyalty, honesty, responsibility, security, fairness, justice, etc.”

            People in this state and this country want the best for their families.  We may disagree on the means for that betterment–but we have a common starting point.

    1. start speculating …

      What’s Romanoff’s next step?

      CD-4 is winable for a Democrat, and Angie could’ve pulled it off without the relentless bankruptcy ads that gave too many indies caution. Who has a sterling background and could match her on personality, centrism and not-Marilyn-ness?

      Aurora mayor Ed Tauer has made it known he’s bound for bigger things. In ’08?

      There have got to be some non-politicians beating the bushes for the Senate. Colorado has a rich history of unelecteds gunning for statewide office — who are they this time? Michael Bennet?

      Anyone heard the rumor Gary Hart is pondering a run for the 6th CD?

      Why confine ourselves to ’08? Who are the Dem back-benchers itching (and positioning) to take Salazar’s place in the Senate if he gets a cabinet appointment? In other words, who would run if Udall hadn’t cleared the table for ’08? Hickenlooper? Perlmutter? John Salazar? Romanoff? Morgan Carroll? Who plays statewide among all those Denverites, now that Ritter has laid to rest that (nonexistent) taboo? (Remember, Dick Lamm, Gary Hart and Tim Wirth all came from Denver, though Wirth moved to Boulder, and won statewide.)

      Discuss …

            1. If Skaggs had wanted to get back in the fray, he would have run for AG or treasurer this time? What’s his ties to the 4th, is he living in Fort Collins?

      1. John Salazar would beat just about any Republican we can throw out there.  Any other of those names you threw out are losers.  Perlmutter won big only because it was a grand year for Democrats (just as Beauprez won big in ’04).  That never translates to a statewide victory in a different climate politically.

        Hickenpooper is probably the most liberal guy in the state.  He didn’t run for guv because he knew he’d lose.  He can affect much more change as mayor and I think he’s smart enough to keep it that way.

        The problem for the Dems is that most of their rising stars (Romanoff, Hickenlooper, Perlmutter, Udall, etc) are too far left for the state.  Ritter and Ken Salazar were brilliant choices by the state party.  They are conservative enough to keep the GOP base from going nuts and coming out in droves to vote Republican. 

        I’m quite conservative, as many know, but honestly, Bill Ritter doesn’t scare me much at all.  Neither does Ken Salazar.  I helped both Coors and Beauprez but I really didn’t care a whole lot when both lost–they ran terribly campaigns after all and deserved to lose.

        But if you’re talking Hickenlooper I’m going to fight tooth and nail to make sure that godless hippie doesn’t get into a position of statewide power.

        I believe that culture, not politics, determines the values of a society.  Ritter may tweak a few things that dent conservativism in Colorado but he won’t affect much ideological change here like Reagan did nation-wide.  Hickenlooper is the kind of guy that could severly liberalize Colorado and that scares the hell out of me.  Culture can compensate for any Ritter bonehead mistakes.  It cannot overcome an imperial heathen like Hickenlooper.

        1. That’s funny, I see him at worship most Sundays.

          And isn’t it odd that a man who listens to others so much is “imperial?”  Who doesn’t have a chauffeur and a big Lincoln and a Suburban “communications center” like Webb?

          Pretty unimperial to me.

      2. He’s going to be Hillary’s vice president!  But you still raise a fair question:  who would Ritter appt. to finish the last two years of Salazar’s term…..

        1. You really think he’s got more national appeal as a Hispanic Rocky Mountainer centrist than Bill Richardson? Does the fact his name sounds Hispanic (and Richardson’s doesn’t) work in his favor or against? And two senators on the ticket? That hasn’t worked since JFK-LBJ, but it’s worth a thought. Also, I have no idea what the Hillary-Salazar dynamic is in the Senate … are they friends?

          I think it’s just too dynastic and domino, but John Salazar would be the appropriate place-holder for Ritter to appoint. Unless he made a bold, bipartisan move and appointed Norma Anderson …

          Anyone else out there I didn’t mention who’s ready for their closeup?

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