President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 13, 2006 07:50 AM UTC
28 Comments
CPols says: “hard to see how he could do enough to gain extra 20 points.” He only needed 11 (or even just over 10) to win…
.
than CD-6.
i cant decide if i love it or if the new big line makes me want to throw up?!
Lamebrain never made a credible case for persuading any majority in the primary or the general to elect him. In the primary, it was, if you don’t elect me, you end up with Rivera. In the general, it was if you don’t elect me, Pelosi will be Speaker of the House. Lamebrain was wrong on both counts.
What Lamebrain desperately hopes is that in the primary in 2008 he’s uncontested. What he fears most is a primary where there’s only 1 other candidate opposing him. Lamebrain can’t win in a heads-up race with just himself and one other candidate, whether Crank or Rayburn. If it’s just Crank or Rayburn, Doug’s “term limited”.
Best bigline I’ve seen yet. Lamborn would have been primaried if he hadn’t won by so much. With incumbency he’s untouchable.
I thought it was a pretty sure thing Allard was running again? If not I’d be a big fan of Scott McInnis. He’s just the kind of Republicans who can win and he may drage CD-3 along with him. I like Tancredo but he’d be bad for the state GOP. I’d like him to run in a primary just to lose so John Andrews or Stengel or someone else can get that seat.
What the GOP needs here is solid leadership, of which Bill Owens has provided none. Don’t count out Bob Schaffer either. If he doesn’t run for Senate he’d be my top Guv. ’10 choice.
But were I to have made the Senate line, I would have put Udall just above Allard rather than just below him, both because he’s pretty much sure to run (Allard isn’t 100% in yet), and because Sen. Potted Plant isn’t much competition.
Allard’s going to have to prove that his pledge means something and come up with a solid reason why *he* is needed in the seat.
McInnis is the big threat on the (R) side of the aisle I think. He’s willing to work with others, has a good base in CO-03, and may well pull conservative-minded Unaffiliateds over to his camp. Tancredo would be on his own and underfunded.
who was turned out of office for breaking a term-limits pledge. Granted, I don’t know how hard any challenger went after a pledge breaker but if Allard decided to go for it I don’t see it as a liability.
Allard has said he’s out after his two terms, then somewhat recently said he might still run. As of this point in time, he’s uncommitted – and that lowers his standings in the Big Line below Udall.
And then there’s the whole “Sen. Potted Plant” bit to consider. Allard’s just not very effective.
Finally, any Dem running for the office has to have a bit of a leg up considering the landscape for the ’08 Senate races. The map in ’08 is very Dem-friendly, with a number of Republicans vulnerable; ’08 is likely to show an increase in the Senate majority for the Democrats, and voters may want someone in the majority in the CO-Sen seat to help things along a bit more… (The ’08 map is also a good reason for Joe Lieberman to stick with the Dems – a two-year majority stint siding with the Republicans would land him in the doghouse for ’08, and by then the Dems won’t need him anymore…)
Is the old guard changing? Owens the resident king maker is on his way out to go make some money. This opens the door for Allard to step forward and become a prominent player as the CO GOP attempts to right the ship for ’08. Seems like a logical fit but there is a lot of heavy lifting to be done, this could make things interesting and a signal for the next Senate showdown.
Remember the primary in 2004 for senate? Schaffer is precisely the kind of Republican that continues to lose in statewide elections of late because he is too conservative. He may do okay in CD4 but outside of that he just doesn’t have the support to run for a statewide race. He is an unconditional supporter of Marilyn Musgrave and says he was just as conservative as her when he was the Rep. for CD4. Could you imagine Musgrave winning a statewide race? I don’t think so. I think Schaffer would have a hell of a time with a race like this especially a high profile race.
Schaffer lost because he did not have money, not because of how far right he was. Infact Coors attempted to move to the right of Bob in many aspects, remember the gun debate? There were alot of factors(money being the only that mattered) that contributed to Bob losing, but his ideology was not one of them.
Looking at the R’s who won and lost this election in Colorado, it was those that tried to move center that came out losing in the end. 08 will bring a different dynamic to it, with a better footing for Republicans in general. If Allard does not run (I am pretty sure he will) and Owens goes private sector, Schaffer is the favorite for R’s. I’d also take into account that Udall may not be a sure thing to run for Senate afterall, with Dems in power in the House he has a chance to move up the ladder with leadership. This might sound appealing to Mark in that he is bright enough to know that 08 will be a better year for R’s in general and he does not have the gift of state wide name ID.
Begins………Now!
Add my whine. Where’s Bill Winter? He’s built some decent name ID this year, I’m sure he will at least seriously consider running in 2008. Also, why not throw Kathy Hartman up there? She lives in CD-6 and just became the first Dem to be elected as Jefferson County Commissioner since 1992, and she defeated the incumbent by nearly 5 points (meanwhile, Min Wage lost county-wide and Ref C won by less than 1%).
… he couldn’t even get 40% of the vote!
Don’t worry. I’m sure they’ll try to draft him to run against Ken Salazar in four years. He won’t get 40% of the vote then either.
OK, OK, just kidding, political addicts that we are. Where’s my needle?
With the ’06 landside, and a Presidential favoring the Dems:
Senate
Dems: 2 to 1
D’s have a 5 seat majority and 2 years to tout progress for Colorado, with only a few competive seats up in 2008.
Repubs: 10 to 1
Same Republican leadership will sink the ship with extra baggage like Schulthies.
House
Dems: 3 to 1
As D’s attract business, unions, churches, enviro’s, farmers, and just about every other interest in Colorado, they will have to work hard to lose the majority.
Repubs: 12 to 1
It will take the R’s more than 2 years to figure why pouding the wedges issues didn’t work, and may even suffer more losses in ’08, for same mistakes.
I hope Scooter runs, so he can get tromped by Udall.
I hear Musgrave was going to step down after this run because it’s been too costly to national Republicans to defend the district.
It wouldn’t surprise me greatly if MM stepped down; she’ll be more than marginally useless as a minority party Congresswoman, and will probably feel frustrated at her newfound loss of a grandstand.
Maybe Eidness or someone can pick up the reins and be a real force in CO-04 politics. Or maybe ’08 is the year Democrats finally manage to lead the district…
Musgrave’s district is so expensive to defend because she has to win by flooding the district with negative ads. She’s never been a cost-effective candidate, and now that Republicans are looking at a significant seat deficit, she won’t be getting the cash she’s been used to receiving to prop her up…
Musgrave got the smallest percentage of the vote for anyone being sent to the house this year as far as I know. Eidsness says he will be back probably as a major party candidate, and Paccione is analyzing the demographic results to see if she should give another go at it. The Fort Collins Coloradoan editorial board yesterday gave a good dose of criticism of Musgrave just as she was reelected. Republicans don’t control congress anymore and they need every seat they can get. I have a feeling they will pressure her to step down, because any more moderate GOP member is likely to walk in CD4 no problem with less money and risk involved.
I love Mike, and spent a lot of time working to build up his base in ’04, but he’s not going to stand a chance in CO-02 against Joan Fitz-Gerald and Jared Polis. Between the two of them, all the money will be sucked out of the room and Mike will be left holding the same bag he was handed in ’04.
I’m not sure if Tom Plant is up for a run for Congress (commitment-wise, away from the state and all…); I certainly haven’t heard one way or the other, but my guess is, if he’s up for more politics, he’s got an inside track on SD-16 if Joan wins the CO-02 primary.
Don’t know why Fern is on the list; I haven’t heard any rumblings that she’s interested in CO-02…
As for the two big guns – Joan and Jared – neither will lack for cash or support; all I ask is that they keep it civil.
My prediction: Sen. Potted Plant bows out, citing his term limits pledge as an excuse. (The actual reasons will dismal polling numbers in a race against Udall as well as disillusionment over being relegated to committee minority status.)
I also predict a serious effort to recruit McGinnis who is probably the only Repug listed who could win that seat. I think B.O. declines to run, and if he does run, it will be messy. The right wing nuts will not tolerate his candidacy very well for a couple of reasons.
Tancredo and Schafer are simply not serious candidates. That leaves the nod up to Scooter, Coffman or Suthers. Any chance the GOP could get Hank Brown out of retirement?
He had the job. Would you give up Colo for D.C.?
I thought that Owens managed to collect close to 10M in contributions in ’02. Surely he must still have some stashed.
…is Fern O’Brien even a consideration for CD-2? She ran a non-existent campaign. I am a hardcore Democrat and she barely gave me a reason to vote for her. The only reason I did was because of fundamental disagreements with Suthers on some important stances.
They could use their own Big Line: how about Affie Ellis, Ed Tauer, Jim Everson, Mark Paschall, Pam Anderson, Ryan Frazier, Steve Burkholder? (I must be overlooking someone.)