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November 11, 2006 02:56 AM UTC

Colorado Gov stats:

  • 2 Comments
  • by: cdsmith

Just some interesting statistics pertaining to the governors race, using data from the Rocky as of this afternoon.  The methodology, basically, is to compare election results (Beauprez vs Ritter) against voter registration (R vs D).  The data attempts to capture how well the two candidates did *relative* to the party affiliations of each county.  It probably has no statistical validity whatsoever, but I thought it was interesting.

Top 5 over-performing Ritter counties by pop.:
1. Douglas
2. Larimer
3. Jefferson
4. Arapahoe
5. Summit

Top 5 over-performing Beauprez counties by pop.:
1. Adams
2. Pueblo
3. Denver
4. El Paso
5. Boulder

Top 5 over-performing Ritter counties, plain:
1. Hinsdale
2. Jackson
3. Ouray
4. Sedgewick
5. Summit

Top 5 over-performing Beauprez counties, plain:
1. Costilla
2. Baca
3. Mineral
4. Las Animas
5. Huerfano

Summary of data is below.  Ignore the raw numbers; they are only good for comparison.

Data:

County Plain Pop
DOUGLAS 6.437244304 1052251.266
LARIMER 5.117505395 990697.8694
JEFFERSON 2.690134433 958110.2091
ARAPAHOE 1.662469752 547138.7452
SUMMIT 11.62014199 245521.98
EAGLE 8.66467396 231112.8485
LAPLATA 5.493742986 200955.6247
MESA 2.033638148 179625.1567
ROUTT 9.962549752 150803.1156
GARFIELD 5.446294264 145040.2625
GRAND 11.33871133 127492.4701
GUNNISON 9.094857963 113813.0525
ARCHULETA 11.61142928 107336.0523
CHAFFEE 8.512360477 105051.0407
PITKIN 7.812936632 101068.1483
BROOMFIELD 2.711463618 90158.87677
WELD 0.692721184 88346.88891
CLEARCREEK 9.267962115 67887.82249
LOGAN 5.579299475 65925.00259
MONTROSE 2.506885142 56856.15503
MOFFAT 6.706763995 56584.96782
DELTA 2.750712477 54068.00445
OURAY 14.3065113 53864.01503
FREMONT 1.565343655 41163.84209
CUSTER 9.656443074 31335.15778
RIOBLANCO 6.141726137 26569.10727
SEDGWICK 13.46900686 23732.39009
KITCARSON 4.782710662 23425.71682
PARK 1.843404329 22943.01028
JACKSON 14.73592147 18891.45133
PHILLIPS 6.2046755 18216.92727
ELBERT 1.1324279 16813.15703
HINSDALE 20.51603433 14771.54472
GILPIN 2.65469864 12076.22412
WASHINGTON 2.895165903 9018.441788
LINCOLN 2.996140199 8808.652184
TELLER 0.490031656 8278.594803
MONTEZUMA 0.442810173 7378.103104
ALAMOSA 0.71401656 6326.186719
RIOGRANDE 0.770950797 5795.237142
CHEYENNE 2.907568996 4375.89134
SANJUAN 1.89454598 1131.04395
CROWLEY 0.14298623 297.2683716
MORGAN -0.214231849 -2965.825712
KIOWA -6.282654051 -7162.225618
PROWERS -1.712835785 -9638.126963
MINERAL -14.99594441 -12296.67442
DOLORES -8.276009916 -12455.39492
YUMA -3.694932256 -22121.55942
CONEJOS -4.504071161 -23578.81253
SANMIGUEL -4.431016036 -24782.67269
BENT -8.956361292 -26260.05131
SAGUACHE -7.224113019 -27646.68052
COSTILLA -16.53444546 -41121.16587
BACA -15.79308908 -46794.92293
LAKE -11.19688918 -53901.82449
HUERFANO -14.04673559 -67578.84491
OTERO -6.32428368 -75113.51727
LASANIMAS -14.374364 -125746.9363
BOULDER -1.514561562 -315299.9114
ELPASO -2.123182105 -742345.1449
DENVER -2.538917409 -897573.3158
PUEBLO -9.932361672 -964293.2653
ADAMS -5.473358391 -1084743.006

Comments

2 thoughts on “Colorado Gov stats:

  1. I’m not sure where you analysis went wrong… maybe you didn’t take voters that aren’t Dems or GOP in to your count of registered voters? Regardless, I highly doubt Beauprez was able to convert any Dems in Boulder.

    1. Sorry; didn’t see your comment for a while.  The answer is that Beauprez didn’t do well anywhere except a few counties on the New Mexico border, and they have very small populations  (Some of them almost still made the top five list for Beauprez, though).  Boulder was one place where Beauprez didn’t tank quite so much.  There’s a strong possibility that that’s because there wasn’t much room to underperform in a county where almost no one was gonna vote for you anyway.  I didn’t give an interpretation; that’s just the way it is.  If that’s the reason, though, then it’s doubly interesting to note that El Paso was also on Beauprez’s strong showing list.

      Remember, this is how well candidates did relative to party registration; it’s not an absolute measure.

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