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October 31, 2006 02:01 AM UTC

More Congressional Polls

  • 45 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

9News/SurveyUSA:

CD-3
John Salazar: 57%
Scott Tipton: 38%

“Majority Watch”/Constituent Dynamics:

CD-4*
Angie Paccione: 48%
Marilyn Musgrave: 45%
*Reform Party candidate Eric Eidsness is not included in this poll.

CD-7
Ed Perlmutter: 51%
Rick O’Donnell: 46%

Comments

45 thoughts on “More Congressional Polls

  1. http://coloradoan.co

    Which also has Paccione in the lead by 3 points, although it’s within the margin of error.

    And who thinks having George W. Bush come to Greeley Saturday for another one of these:

    is actually going to *help* Musgrave?  She must be panicked.

    1. and that is to save Musgrave.  This is unbelievable.  Bush coming to Greeley to rescue Musgrave and Cheney back in the Springs to rescue Lamborn.  The 4th CD and the 5th CD are two of the top performing GOP congressional districts in the United States.  If these two district are now marginal, what is happening in other districts around the country that aren’t nearly as strong for the GOP.  This may be shaping up to be the worst showing by the GOP since 1974 or 1964.

      1. that W. was harassing his father about his earlier statement. Just like in the 80’s, I think that Poppa Bush is going to be correct. Offhand, I would guess that this will be the worse republican showing since Lincoln.

        1.   Between recognizing “Voo Doo Economics” in ’80’s for what it was, and knowing how to mobilize a truly international and successful coalition to deal with Sodom Hussein, Daddy Bush is looking better and better every day. 

          1. I am convinced that in about 50 years from now, history will recognize Jimmy Carter and Poppa Bush as being the 2 most underappreciated presidents of their time. JC dealt with Nixon’s heavy regulations and the killing of the economy (JC hired Volker, not Reagan), the deregs of oil/gas as well as the airlines. His waterloo was allowing for too much diplomacy with Iran and by Reagan’s traitorous deal with the Iranians (hold the hostage until he wins the election).

            Poppa Bush dealt with turning congress from running up deficits to turning the budget. Getting everybody on board is a hard thing. Sadly, Poppa Bush was underappreciated for that.

      1. that would be his greatest accomplishment as President….bar none!

        It might actually move him on the chart of Greatest Presidents in History.  Not to Lincoln and Roosevelt territory; but above average certainly….even with the whole war in Iraq debacle working against him. The single act of choking this woman (a term I use losely) would be a great leveling act on his presidency.

        He should do it!  We need bold leadership and this would be a defining act.

      1. Maybe there is something to this poll after all.  They just made a whole bunch of moves, all towards the Dem side, including in CO 5.  Here is the list from http://www.cookpolitical.com

        Governors
        AK*  Lean R to Toss-up
        ID*  Lean R to Toss-up

        House
        AZ 5  Lean R to Toss-up
        CA 11  Lean R to Toss-up
        CA 50  Likely R to Lean R
        CO 4  Lean R to Toss-up
        CO 5*  Likely R to Lean R
        IA 1*  Toss-up to Lean D
        KS 2  Likely R to Toss-up (a two slot move)
        MN 1  Lean R to Toss-up
        NE 3*  Likely R to Lean R
        NH 2  Lean R to Toss-up
        OH 2  Lean R to Toss-up
        WY AL  Lean R to Toss-up
        * Open seats (no incumbant running)

        One thing about these guys is that unless a there is an indictment, they almost never place a sitting incombant in a race that will lean for the other party.  The fact that the Rs have to fight in Colorado 4, Colorado 5, Kansas 2, Nebraska 3, Ohio 2, and Wyoming for the house, and Alaska and Idaho for the governors races should say it all.  They are now projecting a 20 to 35 (or more) seat gain for the Dems.

        I may also have to eat some crow on an elarlier post (please pass the ketchup).  RT Strategies is one of the people behind http://www.majoritywatch.com, and they also handle the polling for Charlie Cook’s operation, which is well respected and non-partisan.

          1. It changed to “toss-up” because Wyoming’s popular Democratic Governor finally decided to stop sitting out his state’s Congressional race and is now stumping for Trauner.

            And because it’s generally considered impolitic to walk up to your wheelchair-bound opponent and tell him “if you weren’t in that wheelchair, I’d slap you!” like incumbent Republican Cubin did after the debate the other day…

  2. There is a God, he is interested in the congressional race, and he is working to insure that the best candidate wins.

    The one part they got wrong was who God would favor. This is just incredible – simply incredible. As the race gets closer AP is pulling ahead!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Oh happy day

  3. I am very surprised to see these results on Paccione and Musgrave, especially after the pounding that they’ve been giving Angie over the past couple of weeks.  I’d be skeptical of these results but you’ve got to think they’re somewhat true because if they weren’t, they wouldn’t be sending Bush and Cheney here this weeekend.

    Everything will come down to the ground game and absentee ballot chase.  I’m curious to hear the numbers.

    1. People have heard about “illegal aliens,” “illegal aliens,” “illegal aliens” over and over and OVER in the past two years. They’re just not as dumb as the Republican campaign wizards think they are.

      And that ad with the Marine missing his eye – “hey, let’s take off his eyepatch and show his raw eye socket: that’ll REALLY bring in the vote!” – is likely backfiring: it’s so patently, blatantly manipulative. It’s probably just making everyone mad about how the flower of our youth has been wasted on a pack of lies and an incredibly bungled war – with no oversight whatsoever by lapdogs like Musgrave.

      Musgrave hasn’t been talking about the stuff that interests her constituents. Go Angie!

      1. …I have yet to see an ad telling ppl. why they should vote FOR Musgrave.  Like BWB and the plea bargain commercials, MM’s entire campaign theme is that MM is not AP and did not file for bankruptcy in the early ’90’s. 
          Is there something more to MM’s candidacy than that?  If so, what is it?
          I have also yet to hear or see a significant piece of legislation (other than her Federal Marriage Amendment) which carries her name.
          I guess you could call Musgrave an empty suit…..or more accurately, an empty pink dress! 

      2. We were just talking about this last night. If Michael J. Fox was putting on a “shameful” act in the stem cell ad, surely the same must be true for Marilyn Musgrave using the Marine minus the eye patch for her ad. It would’ve been a more powerful and less exploitive ad had they left the eye patch on.

    1. … there’s no knowing what private polling has been done by the Republicans in the past couple of weeks because there haven’t released them. 

  4. So far Eidsness has collected endorsements from the Fort Collins, Greeley and Fort Morgan papers.  (Up here in Northern Colorado that is about 75% of the readership — Loveland went Mustgrave.) He is generally viewed as having done very well in the debate.  Both Musgrave and Paccione supporters are accusing him of taking votes.  And, the 527 that supports Paccione has included him in attack ads, both broadcast and mailed.  So what kind of pollster would not want to evaluate his support?  It would be nice if he only had to run against the two nominated candidates!

    1. … you’ve got to assume the Eldsness will pull more from Musgrace and not Paccione.  Assuming these numbers are correct, that would increase Paccione’s lead and not decrease it.

    2. Eidsness is polling well, which is partly because of people being frustrated with the negative ads between Paccione and Musgrave. But I strongly doubt he will do nearly as well as he polls, since the tendency to claim “Pox on both their houses” is much stronger in the pre-election polls than in the voting booth.

  5. Keep in mind that the firm polling for the 4th and 7th is for a Dem operative, and has never publically polled before.  Also, they did not list EE in the 4th, which may distort the numbers.  Still, seeing AP and EP in the lead is better than seeing them trailing.

    1. I can’t find anything linking Constituent Dynamics to a Democratic operative. Also, some of the numbers show Republican gains contrary to independent polling.

      1. I thought James Carville was one of the financial backers of Constituent Dynamics.  Even if I’m wrong and he isn’t (which could be), the guys over at Daily Kos are a little leary of this poll since these guys are brand new, and the numbers seem wildly optomistic for the Dems nationally.  Their polling suggests the Dems will gain 37 to 39 seats, which is way at the extreme end of suggested D pick-ups.  I would like that to be true, but I have a strong feeling that the Dems are going to gain 25 to 30 seats nationally, which would be enough for control of the house by 10 to 15 seats, the amount the Rs have held the hous by since 1997.

        If I’m wrong about this, and I hope I am, and these guys are accurate, than I will be very, very, very happy.

    2. Whether public or private, I can’t imagine why any pollster would be biased.  That would immediately invalidate the results.  If your candidate is behind, you try to change it and you don’t make it public. 

      If a candidate ran a poll that showed him/her behind, it would be much easier to just lie about it.  You know, like BWB did a few weeks ago. 

      The greatest validation of these polls is the simple fact that they are all in essental agreement, and all have moved in the same directions for the last month.

      1. WHo knows – maybe the Republican implosion will be bad enought to take at Tancredo too. I know that’s pushing it but maybe, just maybe.

        Could you imagine of the entire Colorado house delegation became Democratic? Wow!

        Anyone hear of a recent poll in CD-6?

      2. This is exactly what Rove is doing, releasing his own polling data, or at least talking about “the math” on NPR last week.

        I’ve heard of Republicans and Democrats releasing their own polls as a way of either scaring the opposition, drumming up support, or trying to convince the press that they are viable.  It’s not unheard of, either, for the campaigns to fudge the numbers, either by throwing in leaners, or sliding along the MOE to get a better result for their guy.  Why the press buys this carp, I don’t know.  However, they seem to be suckers for it since they get a horserace story without actually having to pay for the polling.

        In summary, it isn’t so much the pollster being biased, it is what we see on this end as biased.  Is that what happened here?  I don’t know.  I would like to believe that what we see here are accurate numbers, but I will try to curb my enthusiasim until we see how everything shakes down next week.

    1. First, download the WSJ link: http://online.wsj.co

      Quote: GUBERNATORIAL: COLORADO
      Rep. Bob Beauprez, a Republican and favorite of the White
      House, has been surging since Labor Day, consistently gaining ground against Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter, and now they are neck-and-neck, though a recent poll by Rasmussen shows Ritter with a comfortable lead. Libertarian candidate Dawn Winkler-Kinateder polled at 4% this time, even with 4% in the previous poll.

      “Surging since Labor Day?”  Was this poll taken the day after?  And then they acknowledge that Rasmussen “shows Ritter with a comforable lead.”

      Moving on down to Florida, where I was last week, we find more “Oh, please God, don’t let us lose” desperation.  I read that the race was too close to call, in the margin of error.  But no, the capitalist pig (great news content, though) WSJ says:

      GUBERNATORIAL: FLORIDA
      Charlie Crist, the GOP attorney general, continues to hold a lead over his challenger, Democratic Congressman Jim Davis, in the race to fill the seat that will be vacated by Republican Gov. Jeb Bush. Crist’s level of support has remained constant over the past month, at 50%, while Davis has won over converts from undecided voters, Zogby finds. With Crist still at 50%, it remains an uphill battle for the Democrat, though Crist’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error.

      This smacks of the recent Baron’s prediction that the ‘Pubes will win because they have the bigger war chest.  But that completely overlooks breakdowns by states and CD’s.  And voters who have finally seen the wizard behind the curtain.

    2. Now I know.

      I have as much fun taking a Zogby Interactive poll as anyone else, but there’s no reason to take it remotely seriously. Beauprez is burnt toast.

    3. Zogby does two kinds of polls: Zogby International does telephone polls, and Zogby Interactive does internet polls.  The former are useful for assessing the success of candidates and campaigns.  The latter are useful — but only in a true emergency, and only if you’ve printed them — as toilet paper.

      Click the little link called “Methodology” at the bottom of the screen.  Here’s what you’ll find.

      1. Zogby asked people for voluntary participation in their interactive polling system.  This is called a biased sample.  There is no mathematically sound way for accomodating a biased sample.

      2. Most responses came from this biased sample.  The +/- 4% MOE indicates that (assuming a 95% confidence level, which is standard, and approximately even percentages) they surveyed 600 people.  But the methodology makes it clear that they only phoned 20 to 50 people.  Therefore, at least 92% (probably more) of their sample was from the biased internet polls.

      3. Even the Zogby marketing acknowledges that their polls are inaccurate.  You’ll notice the statement “Interactive polling is well on its way to becoming as accurate as telephone polling.”  In other words, it’s not there yet, by admission of the polling company.

      4. Some significant number, 15%, of respondents are identified as “regulars”.  This means that they are not just accidentally biased, but have worked their way into the system and actively try to respond to as many polls as they can, with the deliberate purpose of influencing the results.

      You will also notice that trends indicate that Zogby Interactive has an especially bad bum sample in Colorado.  They haven’t picked up some sudden change here.  They’ve been polling an even race all along.  They are the only ones who get that result.  Everyone else has Ritter in the lead by a margin of around 15%.  So we have several outliers in a row, from the same company, with a bizarre and broken methodology, while all other polls agree with each other and show consistent trends; well, that’s pretty conclusive.

      1. cdsmith, with all the partisan crap that gets posted here, more and more as we get closer to the election, it’s refreshing to see some actual analysis.  I want to thank you for a great post.

  6. Just when you’re gushing about some hack polls showing Rick and Marilyn down, ol’ John Zogby comes along and crashes the party!

    I think all three polls are off.  My guess is that Musgrave leads by a few, Rick and Ed are dead even, and Ritter leads by 5 or 6.

    All of that is fairly good news for Republicans.  The GOP’s GOTV is worth about 4 points this year, meaning that Rick’s race looks good, Marilyn’s got it in the bag, and Bob’s on prowl.

    I must say that having the Bush administration come to town means that while the state Republicans aren’t doing so bad, nothing is safe these days.

  7. I’ve been hooked on polls this fall. 

    The joke’s on me.  I think we’re all gonna be shocked this fall.  The GOP will do a whole lot better than Democrats expect and I’m afraid some races I’m expecting to go my way will go the other way. 

    The way they do polling these days is inherently faulty.  Polls are fun for speculation and entertainment but that’s about it.

    When Ritter says he’s acting as if his race is within one or two points I’d be inclined to believe him.  As far as our congressional delegation: use your heads.  The 5th CD will never ever ever go Democrat, though it will be close this year.  The 4th CD will be very close and while Musgrave should win Manhattan Angie’s got game.  The 7th CD will be as close as the registration numbers.  In so many of the state’s races it’ll come down to turnout and that gives the edge to the GOP in a Republican-leaning state.

    1. Sorry but it seems the Dems will take state legislatures for a majority again. Ritter is up by double digits in most legitamite polls. Perlmutter has had an edge since last summer. I really don’t think the GOP is motivated to get out and vote no matter how good the republican ground game is. People are tired of the GOP and want change. When I watch how many ads Musgrave and O’donnell are throwing up there and how desperate they are it shows how weak they think they are. The latest Paccione ad is very positive. Traditionally when a candidate starts ending the campaign with positive adds it means they feel they are ahead.

  8. The fact that Lamborn and MM are vulnerable isn’t just because of the national Republican Party

    The Colorado Republican Party is likely the MOST incompetent state chapter of any Republican Party state chapter within this entire nation

    I would say that MM and Lamborn’s problems stem more from local Republican disentement than national —- after all, where were these current Republicans (MM, Lamborn, O’Donnell) when our ‘conservative’ Governor was writing Refs C and D??? —- that is pretty much why local Republicans are upset (and include me on that list)

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