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October 19, 2006 09:40 PM UTC

Lamborn Leads Fawcett by 13 Points

  • 26 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Fawcett’s campaign sent out a long press release detailing why they think this poll is inaccurate. Click below to see the release.

According to a new poll from 9News/SurveyUSA, Republican Doug Lamborn leads Democrat Jay Fawcett by 13 points in the race for CD-5:

Doug Lamborn: 51
Jay Fawcett: 38

The Fawcett Campaign today said that a poll conducted by Survey USA failed to accurately measure the electoral landscape of Colorado’s 5th Congressional District.

The survey discounted the district’s sizeable group of unaffiliated voters, had a flawed survey list and used computers that can’t screen non-voters from the survey.

“With all due respect to 9 News, we think they missed the mark on this poll, and it wouldn’t be the first time that has happened,” said Fawcett Campaign Manager Wanda James. “It is a volatile year for elections and this is a volatile race.  The Survey USA numbers have fluctuated on a daily basis, and it will come down to the poll taken on Election Day.”

The poll, which over counted Republicans and discounted unaffiliated voters, does not reflect the full support Fawcett has in the district.  The voter break-out of CD-5, according to the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office, shows 46% Republican; 22% Democrat and 32% Unaffiliated.  The Survey USA/9 News poll surveyed more Republicans (52%) and fewer Unaffiliated (21%).

The poll also used a flawed survey list that polled a wide range of CD-5 citizens – not just registered voters.  For example, Survey USA actually called Fawcett for Congress headquarters and asked to poll the campaign’s Field Director, who answered the phone.  “If Survey USA is calling our campaign headquarters for a voter survey, how credible can this survey be?” asked James.

Finally, the Survey USA poll was a “Robo-poll,” conducted by computers that have no ability to screen out respondents – such as children or other non-voters – from the sampling. “A 12-year-old could respond to this,” said James.  “For all these reasons, we don’t think it adds up.”

Fawcett’s campaign continues to draw growing interest from local and national observers.

Under the headline, “Uphill Hike for Republicans in Colorado,” today’s Wall Street Journal gave a clear assessment of the race.
Under the headline, “5th District No Longer Safe for GOP,” Congressional Quarterly’s CQPolitics.com reported this month that “serious resentment” among Republicans continues to dog Republican candidate Doug Lamborn, making the CD-5 election a horse race.
Earlier this month, a Denver Post poll showed Fawcett in a statistical dead heat with Republican opponent Doug Lamborn. The Post poll of 400 likely voters, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, showed 37% would vote for Fawcett, 37% for Lamborn, and 26% were undecided.

The Denver Post poll, fielded Oct. 3-7, had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. The poll showed that Fawcett holds a significant advantage among the district’s crucial unaffiliated voters – with 39% backing Fawcett, 27% for Lamborn and 34% undecided. 

While Lamborn enjoys much wider name recognition than Fawcett, his unfavorable name recognition was nearly four times higher, according to the poll.  The Post poll is a strong indicator of growing voter approval of Fawcett, a decorated military veteran – and a harbinger of trouble for Lamborn, whose extreme views and “sleazy” primary campaign have sparked criticism from fellow Republicans and others.

“We continue to build on a campaign that reaches out to all voters who want to solve problems,” said Fawcett.  “In this election, people are voting for the person not the party. Our strategy is working.”

The poll results are the latest repudiation of Lamborn, a state legislator with broad name recognition in a largely Republican district – but with critically weak voter favorability.

Last August, outgoing Republican Rep. Joel Hefley refused to endorse Lamborn, saying of Lamborn’s primary campaign, “I feel that he ran the most sleazy, dishonest campaign I’ve seen in a long, long time, and I can not support it.” 

Since then, a growing number of prominent Republicans, including Colorado Springs City Councilmen Scott Hente and Jerry Heimlicher, and many others (see www.republicansforfawcett.com) have refused to support Lamborn, choosing instead to back Fawcett. 

Republican business, political, civic and military leaders also went public with their disdain for CD-5 candidate Doug Lamborn in full-page ads that ran in the Colorado Springs Independent. Under the banner headline, “None of These Republicans Will Endorse Doug Lamborn for Congress,” community leaders outlined why they won’t back their party’s candidate.

“Jay’s understanding of the issues and his pro-family, pro-America message ring true with voters, and they are uniting the 5th District,” said James.

The Denver Post poll was conducted during the release of Fawcett’s television advertising – the first ever for a Democratic Congressional candidate in the district (See the Fawcett TV ad and other clips, http://www.youtube.c…)

The full Denver Post article can be found at http://www.denverpos….

Comments

26 thoughts on “Lamborn Leads Fawcett by 13 Points

    1. Well being that they were so right on Lamm’s Poll putting her over ED…

      I am looking at this poll. Where is the break down. The U’s are breaking for Fawcett.

      What was the age range, Male Vs Female and where was it polled?

      http://www.hillnews….

      This polling team has been wrong a bunch.

  1. Unethical,sleazy Lamborn in the 5th; unethical, sleazy and race-baiting Tancredo in the 6th. I’ll bet if 9News bothered to do a poll in the 6th, the numbers would be about the same.

    Jeez, a fellow whose official campaign photo featured him wearing a Colonel Sanders bowtie ran against Tancredo in 2002 and got the same high-30s percentage as the totally polished, professional Conti got in 2004. I’ll bet Winter gets about the same this year.

  2. Wingnut extremists Musgrave, Tancredo, and Lamborn will be representing Colorado.  Maybe we should just refer to them as the holy trinity.  They’re nothing wrong with sending Republicans to represent us, but for crying out loud… this is the best we could do?  The three biggest bigots we could find in the state?

    With the WSJ reporting congressional approval at only 16%, it’s looking like Democrats will likely win both the house and the senate.  Foley hurt the Republicans badly.  I also read that a lot of the evangelicals are expected to stay at home due to their disappointment with Republicans for not passing anti-gay and anti-abortion legislation.  At least our holy trinity won’t get very far with their homophobic agenda.

    1. the three stooges would be more appropriate.  At least 4 out 7 members of our state’s House delegation will have their heads screwed on right and be presentable to the rest of the nation……

  3. After watching the entire debate (October 5th), I cannot conceive of anyone–I don’t care how deep one’s Republican or Conservative “values” are embedded–believing the shoolmarmish, whiney, blindly toeing Dubya’s talking points, Doug Lamborn, could be realistically favored over the Democratic candidate, Jay Fawcett. I mean, well, if you’ve got the time, you ought to take a look at the entire debate. Fawcett shines. Lamborn grates as fingernails against a blackboard.

    Did you see Lamborn keep looking down to his left every few minutes. Betcha Dubya’s talking points were there, very blackly printed, along with a smiley face portrait of James Dobson.

    Lord, can you imagine the “Potted Plant,”, the “lady in pink” and “You Shut Up!” all three, in Congress representing Colorado. OMG!

    1. I don’t know how any reasonable person that seriously looked at these two candidates could possibly go with Lamborn over Fawcett. 

      It’s just a matter of party loyalty.  The R side far outnumbers the D side in CD-5 and people just aren’t going to break with party lines.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… Hitler could win in CD-5 so long as he won the Republican primary.

  4. September Voter Reg Numbers

    Total voters  413,136

    Reps  189,942   46% 

    Dems  89,182   22%

    Unaff  132,606   32%

    9 News 

    Reps  52%

    Dems   25%

    Unaff  21%

    1. Voter registration numbers are not enough to discredit the poll.  Even if voter registration numbers were an accurate prediction of likely voters (which they are not), and the breakdown within each group were similar to the Mason Dixon poll that showed a tie (which is isn’t), the corrected numbers would be:

      Lamborn: 50.16
      Fawcett: 39.17

    2. The latest numbers I’ve seen for El Paso County show a total of 350093 voters:

      Rep 162871 46.52%
      Un 112691 32.19%
      Dem 73435 20.98%
      Others 1096 0.31%

  5. J. Salazar wins.
    Angie loses.
    Fawcett loses.
    Winter loses.
    Ritter wins.
    Suthers wins.
    Hillman wins.
    Coffman wins.
    Dems lose the State House.
    Dems keep the State Senate.

  6. of whining tempered trantrum throwing little babies most of ya’ll are.
    What the fuck.
    If a Democrat is losing it is due to the fact that the district he/she is in is full of a bunch of bigots & losers and they get what they deserve.
    If a Democrat is winning it is because they are on the side of everything good and pure and the people there are of the highest nature.

    B fucking S

  7. I thought the whole reason that Fawcett had a shot was because a certain number of GOP voters were going to stay home. I highly doubt that this poll took that into account when it called “likely voters.” In reality though… a poll like this doesn’t hurt Fawcett. It will help convince anti-Lamborn Republicans that they can abstain from voting and still not have a Dem elected. I hope the next poll shows even a bigger margin.

      1. People don’t win by opinion polls. People win by getting the most people that end up actually voting to vote for them. Lamborn could lead by even more points but it doesn’t matter if the mass of what the pollsters deem “likely voters” don’t vote. But then, I already said that. So clarifying probably won’t help. I’ll tell you this though… I expect Fawcett to lose on election day… but I’d say by no more than 5 points. No point in arguing. We will know if I’m right in a few weeks.

        1. I think what’s being lost in all this is that Fawcett had a seemingly insurmountable 41-28% lead in his internal poll just a few weeks ago, and now voter favor has swung 26 points in the other direction. Talk about losing the Big Mo.

          1. That’s why this is being “lost”.  Even the Fawcett camp, when they say the poll that had them even, celebrated.  If they had believed their own earlier poll, they would have been doing some serious soul searching instead.

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