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October 19, 2006 07:05 PM UTC

Winter Claims Dead Heat in CD-6

  • 46 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

We don’t believe that Republican Doug Lamborn is leading Democrat Jay Fawcett by 17 points in CD-5, as a Club for Growth poll claims, and we definitely don’t believe a new claim from Democrat Bill Winter, who is running against Tom Tancredo in CD-6.

Winter’s camp has been claiming for weeks that an internal poll from the Tancredo campaign shows that CD-6 is a dead heat, and now Winter is telling national bloggers about this mystery poll. Winter has no television presence and no name recognition in the district, and Tancredo has received the endorsement of both The Denver Post and the Rocky Mountain News. This race is not a dead heat.

Winter is obviously desperate, but he had better be careful; if he ends up losing this race by a wide margin, which he probably will, then he’s really going to look like a fool for doing this – and people will remember if he tries to run for office again.

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46 thoughts on “Winter Claims Dead Heat in CD-6”

  1. Bill,

    You trash other Dems, You cry like a little kid and you need to give up. You have to be 20 points down. Stick a fork in yourself… you are done.

    Show us a poll… or wait do you have any money left.

    1. TheDeminator, you’re talking like a playground bully kicking at the little kid.

      Explain “you trash other Dems.” Winter hasn’t done that to my knowledge.

      Explain “you cry like a little kid.” Winter hasn’t done that to my knowledge. Maybe he cried once or twice while he was a MARINE or in the NAVY fighting for our country, instead of getting out of the draft due to mental illness like his opponent (who now loves to show pictures of himself in military headgear like a typical chickenhawk).

      There was a poll that indicated a 47/45 split, right? Winter has said that Tancredo’s polling indicates it’s close. Go to Tancredo’s own website (at http://www.tancredo.org, not to be confused with the vastly superior http://www.tomtancredo.org – then again, please DO confuse them if you’re a Tancredo supporter). You’ll see Tancredo spreading the alarm and begging for more money to fund his presidential, um I mean congressional, campaign.

      1. I will search out them out but there have been a number of rants about things not being fair from Winter on Daily Kos. He just likes to go on this little rants about how the world is against him.

        There was a poll before, but there has not been a poll that has come out from any side.

        1. I have to admit I haven’t kept up with what Winter’s been saying in other venues like DailyKos.

          I’m suprised no one from the media’s done a poll for the 6th CD – if only to see if the national Republican meltdown is having any effect on Tancredo.

  2. “Tancredo is running scared and running out of money.”-Bill Winter on Square State

    I like Bill a lot and I wish he had run a better race so we could get rid of TT.  But don’t lie to us.

    Cash on Hand according to the Federal Election Commission:

    Tancredo-$590,498
    Winter-$36,705

    I’m all for pumping up the base and honestly trying to change America, but don’t lie to us Bill.

    1. Tancredo ain’t scared and he ain’t running out of money. If anything, he’s awfully complacent. I would love it if there’s some sort of miracle on November 7th – but hey, I’d love to win the lottery too.

  3. The problem is that Bill has no idea to run a race. He’s spent over 100K on radio and none on tv. Bill, suck it up and let the money flow into races that have a chance.

    His last poll that I have seen was what in May?

    1. I’m a Winter contributor because I live in the sorry 6th CD. Are you saying Winter should just fold up his tent and go home? Only a coward would do that.

      That being said, he needs to remain honest and realistic in his communications.

  4. Winter has completely bungled this campaign and makes Conti’s ’04 run look like a top targeted race.  I thought maybe Conti was finished after the CD-7 crap she pulled but I firmly believe she’s twice the CD-6 candidate that Bill “Whiner” Winter ever was and maybe she has a political future after all.

    1. But she ended up with virtually the same high-thirties voting percentage as the fellow who ran against Tancredo in ’02. You know, the Dem who sounded like a space cadet and whose official campaign photo featured him wearing a Colonel Sanders tie.

      My prediction is that the Republican mess will earn Winter a few more points and the outcome will be 44 Winter, 56 Tancredo. Unless Tom the Bomb has done such a great job with name recognition (not DOING anything, just getting his name in the papers) that the percentage goes to 40-60.

      Sigh. I wish Tancredo had gotten friendly with some page…

      1. …I too am a resident of CD666, the NIMBY district, Republican Hell, all the names I can think of for this place, and I am tired of Tancredo.  I am not a Republican because I disagree with their stances on most issues, whereas I agree with the Democrats on most issues.  I can’t stand Republicans (the politicians anyway) because they are either do-nothing rubber stamps like Wayne Allard and Bob Beauprez, or strident one-note fire-breathing right wingers like Marylin Musgrave and Tom Tancredo.  I have met Bill Winter a number of times.  I gave money to his campaign, I volunteered for him on a number of occasions.  He is a truly great guy and anybody would be lucky to do so well as to have someone like him as their representative.  I think that one needs to run a grassroots campaign, but also supplement it with people who are experienced, who are good and who are in it to win.  Win now, not 2 years from now or 4 years from now.  I know how hard Joanna Conti worked and I know how hard Bill Winter is working, and it is insane that in 2004, 60% of CD6 chose to stick with Tancredo over someone more sane.  I fear 2006 will be a repeat in that respect.  I hope not, but I fear so.  As for his campaign, his staff are dedicated people who have worked tirelessly to win this race.  Jay Fawcett at least got some DCCC help and Bill Winter got none.  People say Bill ran a “crap” race.  How does one run a good race in CD6 under the current conditions?  Many people there are not tuned into the issues that affect people most other places.  It is so wealthy that they don’t worry about jobs or healthcare or even Iraq.  As for the radio ad versus Conti’s TV ads.  Conti’s ads made me cringe a little.  They were too cloying and bubbly.  Winter’s radio ad, that I have heard a number of times now is quite good and eloquent.  I feel like I am listening to Matt Santos on The West Wing when I hear it.  Personally, I am just disgusted with the way the race is going and the way Bill is getting treated here because he was fighting a steep uphill battle and things didn’t break loose for him.  But if CD6 gets Tancredo for another term, then they deserve him, except for those of us who vote for Bill.  As for Tancredo getting friendly with a page, who knows.  The wiring in his head is loose enough that he might do it. 

  5. “Look like a fool?”  Who is he really fooling when he doesn’t disclose that he’s paying himself a monthly salary from his campaign funds…yikes!

    1. I don’t know much about Bill’s salary, but I do know that Bill donated a kidney to a relative in need.
      Under our screwed up health care system, doing the right thing can cost you dearly and Bill’s generosity probably means he cannot get independent insurance due to his “pre-existing condidtion”.

      I believe that under Colorado law, Bill can still get coverage if he is on the group policy of a small business. I am not an expert on this by any measure, but I think that they are not able to deny him coverage due to his donated kidney. Maybe someone can check into this, but I suspect that by Bill being carried on the books at WinterforCongress, Winter can still run for office without having to worry that he may die from lack of an employer.

      1. Deflect the comment about a candidate paying himself a salary from the campaign coffers with a sob story about him donating a kidney and becoming a victim of the evil medical industry.

        Had it followed any other comment about Winter, I probably would not have responded like this, but come on. The last refuge of the scoundrel isn’t really patriotism, it’s victim-hood.

        1. What are you talking about? Nobody is saying anyone is a victim.

          I am just saying that Winter might be on the campaign’s payroll so he can remain eligable for health insurance. Do you have a problem with a candidate not losing his health insurance by running for office?

          Lets remember that Tancredo gets his at taxpayer expense. Now THAT might be worth sobbing over.

    2. Winter should disclose he’s paying himself a monthly salary from his campaign funds?….do some research most candidates are doing something to this effect.

      I think it’s nice that we have a down-to-earth candidate who can’t afford to take out a 7 million loan to fund his campaign…aka Bob Beauprez. I think it’s nice to have a candidate who’s campaign isn’t being financed by some huge special interest group who will expect favors in return upon his election.

      It’s nice to have someone who is middle class like the rest of us who knows how it is and about the challenges we face.

      This is a man who knows how it feels to not be able to afford healthcare insurance. After he donated his kidney to his sister-in-law the big health insurance providers called that kind act a pre-existing condition and raised his rates, causing him to be uninsured for awhile.

      I think it’s nice to have a guy running for Congress who would prefer the small salary of teaching high school over being a big-time attorney in Denver…which he was and gave up to teach.

      When you have a “normal”, caring guy running for office, financial concessions have to be made. So don’t be so quick to judge without all of the facts.

  6. I hope he continues his current desperate pace. As CP has articulated, his next run may be a “run forest run” moment.  Has the mystical poll been divulged?  Is it 1QD standing at a downtown Denver 7-11 polling the patrons?

  7. I think the May poll showed a “dead heat” 47/45 or something close to it. What has changed since then? It will be interesting to see what happens to the cash on both sides over the next few weeks. The State Republicans are not fans of Tancredo – a Bill Winter win might enable the Republicans to come back in 2008 and run a serious candidate – food for thought…I am just not sure how much support Tancredo is really getting from the State Republican Party and/or from the RNCC.

  8. I understand the cash on hand statement but isn’t the actual total during the campaign:

    Tancredo: $1,200,000
    Winter: $570,000

    Or something close to it. I have not been on the FEC site in a while.

    I wonder if the “debate” will change anything???

  9. I think that my favorite race this cycle is ColoradoPols vs. Bill Winter, and I have to say that I put my money on Bill on this one.

    It can be an easy self fulfilling prophesy to predict that a candidate has no chance, refuse to support him and discover that he loses in November. Tancredo is a loon, but he is an encumbent loon and that makes it tough… not to beat him, but to get the assistance needed out of a party that thinks it can only win where there is a vacancy or an indictment.

    That is why the one group that is more threatened than Tancredo by the possibility of a Winter victory is the entrenched cowards of the Colorado Democratic consulting class. They need Winter to lose as big or bigger than Winter would have lost if he had continued to sign their fat paychecks.

    There is a telling feature in the big line this week. It is an inaccurate shot at Bill’s staff. It tells a piece of the story about who Bill fired and who he refused to hire. It is not suprising that he is not well liked on this thread. One of the earlier commenters was fired from Bill’s staff, acted unethically on his way out the door, and then went on to play a minor role in mishandling Peggy Lamm’s campaign. With so many losses under his young belt, you think he would be somewhere licking his wounds, but instead he is on here trying to cut down a good man for fear that he will never work again if the good man wins.

    Colorado Pols had Peggy Lamm in the lead until the final day of her race until they moved her into a tie. How much did her campaign spend into the pockets of the same cosultants that now are trying to punish Bill for trying to shut off the tap? They think he is not running their type of campaign, and that he is not losing the way they are used to? Fine. Let them predict whatever they wish to, but they do damage to us all when they make the serious mistake they are making today: from their safe anonimity some here are calling Bill Winter a liar. They are foolish morons.

    Bill has taken on a tough battle, and he has stood up honorably and spoken with honesty on everything he believes. I have witnessed first hand as time and time again he has refused easy victories in order to hold himself to a higher standard. Winning the right way has always been more important to him than winning itself. Maybe that doesn’t give him every advantage against Tancredo, but it is exactly why it is so important that we fight to put a man like Bill in office.

    I feel closer to the people with the (R) after their names who fight for their beliefs and principles, than I feel to some of the self-serving liars in my party who would smear a man like Bill Winter. For their sake, I hope they are right about big blow-outs for the Republican in this race, because the time is approaching when people will realize that they are not anything but leeches on the Democrats.

    1. It’s unethical, in my opinion, for any of the previous posters to fail to mention their previously being fired by Winter if they’re now dissing him.

      Look, ANY Democrat running in the 6th CD has a real tough battle against Tancredo. That’s a fact of life. And we don’t have a situation like the 5th where the same-party incumbent refuses to endorse the opposing candidate. But that doesn’t mean you just give up. I’ve contributed lots of money to Winter because it’s the right thing to do. God, I’d LOVE it if he could be the tortoise in this race against Rabbit Tancredo.

      ColoradoPols never responded to my previous question: why did you write in the Big Line that Winter’s running a “crap” race? That’s a cheap shot. If you can’t afford TV ads, you don’t run TV ads. That doesn’t mean you’re running a crap race; it means you’re doing the best you can with what you’ve got! Facts and specifics please, ColoradoPols, not just namecalling against a decent, honorable, hardworking, patriotic and intelligent man: the opposite in any respect from the unethical, dishonorable and cowardly poser who’s now our Congressman.

      1. If you’re going to get credit win you win, you also get blame when you lose. You can’t blame everybody else for your problems. Winter has not run a good campaign, and that’s not “calling names.” It is what it is.

        Only Jay Fawcett raised less money than Winter of the congressional candidates in Colorado, and Fawcett managed to save enough to be on TV. Winter blew through his money and spent way too much money on radio ads that ran way too early to matter anyway. He couldn’t even get the endorsement of the Democratic-leaning Denver Post, and he apparently did poorly enough in his interview with the Rocky Mountain News that they said his economic positions “weren’t well informed.” Bill Ritter is probably going to outperform Bob Beauprez in CD-6, and Winter can’t take advantage of it. Tom Tancredo has said so many crazy things in the last year that you could have a field day with ads, but it doesn’t matter because Winter doesn’t have any money.

        Winter is a good candidate, but he ran a bad race. That’s not our fault, and that’s not anybody else’s fault but theirs.

      2. I’ve been reading, with increasing dismay, the number of bloggers on this site and over at SquareState that consistently go negative on Paccione/Winter’s campaigns. Warranted or not, the unsolicited negativity on these Dems does no service to either of them.

        Unfortunately, owning up to leaving (or being asked to leave) a campaign does not appear to be a consistent practice with some of the commentators.

        I’ve long since ceased to care what Pols has to say about half these races–they’ve been negative from the start on both Angie and Bill and have consistently reminded us that Jay doesn’t have a hope in hell of being elected.

        Dems, be careful of your self-fulfilling prophecies. Maybe it’s time for a little less criticism and a little more involvement.

    2. tough talk guy.  why don’t you name names and disclose who you are for those who don’t know if you want people to give your little rant credibility.

    3. I do not think anyone is saying Bill is not taking on a tough fight. What I have an issue with is how he wastes all of his money and he is still not on TV. He has been known to trash other Dems – ( IE Fawcett) before just to get a bump in fundraising.

      He has raised a lot of money but he is in the Denver Media market so it is $$$ to be on TV and he wasted over 100 K on radio. Many of those 60 sec radio spots… when was the last time you listened to a 60 sec radio spots?

      He is all smoke and mirrors at this point, it is time to step aside and let people who have a shot raise the needed money to win. He has not posted a poll, claims that there is a poll and has lost the backing of even the Denver Post. He had a shot and really blew it.

      1. What makes you think Winter’s ever realistically had a shot? Tancredo’s succeeded in getting even the Rocky Mountain News to forget about his lack of integrity: the Rocky wrote in 2002 that Tancredo should be “booted out of office” for breaking his term-limits pledge. Tancredo avoided too many outrageous comments during this campaign season. He’s been a coward and refused any debates with Winter. Unfortunately there were no photos taken of him talking in front of a Confederate banner before a bunch of racist Redshirts. And he’s kept his name in the news by getting that mythical 700-mile wall passed in Congress: the one that’s not funded.

        As ColoradoPols has pointed out, the 6th CD is even more solidly Republican than the 5th. My hope is that Tancredo gets greedy and runs for Senate when the skeletons in his closet can be used against him. But I predict he’ll stay a fat, happy coward, coasting on his name recognition (“Viva Tancredo!” – the ultimate in hypocritical yard signs) and inflicting the 6th CD with his “representation” for years and years to come.

    4. Way to shed some light on the issue.  I was chagrined to see this thread turning into a Winter bashing party.

      Bill’s not getting a fare shake – and he’s certainly being rooted against by a few people that didn’t get what they wanted from his campaign.

      As TBTH mentions, ColoPols is usually pretty accurate, but they did have the CD-7 race as a Lamm lead and then a dead-heat just before the election – which Perlmutter went on to easily win.

      Sometimes hype and outsider perceptions are just what they seem.  Either way, I hate to see Democrats rooting against a guy like Bill Winter. 

    5. It looks like some of my fellow Democrats are more concerned with making predictions and looking smart than actually standing up for our candidates.

      TakeBackTheHouse nails it. Bill has what it takes to win and the courage to fight for what he believes in. Bring on the election.

    6. I do, and I a hate, with the passion of 1000 suns, Tom Tancredo. Nothing would please me more than to see him lose. Blaming Coloradopols for “not supporting him” is a ridiculous assertion for a couple of reasons. (1) They call politicians out, on both sides of the aisle, for the mistakes that they make. (2) People can post whatever they want on this site, and it is not the place of the dead govs. to change it. In fact, I would not post on here if they ever did that. If you really want someone to blame blame the Democratic party and Bill Winter for not getting enough money into his warchest.

      “Entrenched cowards of the Democratic consulting class”? To me that sounds an awful lot like “Ivory tower liberal elite,” and to be honest that is a little old. Why dont you come out and tell me who this young man is? I waited to respond to see if you would say, but since you havent yet I am just going to assume that you are throwing out an accusation to bolster your argument.

      What were the polls projecting in the lead up to the dem primary in CD-7? I honestly dont remember, so if you could elucidate me on that as well it would be helpful. And which consultants are trying to get Bill to shut up? Maybe they dont like his campaing because he is not running much of one. Has he been on tv?

      I like Bill, I do. I am still holding out hope that he can win, but if he does it will be because people dont like Tancredo, not because they like Winter per se. I think Conti ran a better race than Bill, because at least i can remember her commercials, horrible as they were in my opinion.

      Which Rs are fighting for their beliefs and principles? If you find yourself thinking that doug bruce or John Andrews are people that you feel close to than god help you. And who are the self serving liars in the D column?

    1. It must be in his FEC Report.

      When running for Congress you can take pay for running. You can take up to 5,000 K a month. Most people dont even look at it but some people do it to pay the bills.  The more you take the less chance you have to win.

      1. His law practice was just getting started when he decided to enter the campaign, so he’s not independently wealthy.  Tancredo gets paid by the taxpayer to go to other states and run for President, and I don’t see any problem with some of my donations going to paying Bill’s basic needs.

  11. Wonder if Winter’s disclosing to his contributors that he’s paying himself a salary from their contributions? (See his Sept. FEC report)  Apparently he could pay himself a bonus from campaign funds after the election, regardless of the results.  What a country.

  12. My regards to giving us outsiders the rest of the story. Although I acknowledge there are always two sides to every story – maybe we have them both now – but regardless I would sincerely hope that the DEMs would not try to sabotage one of their own! If that is happening someone should take a hard look in the mirror and search their heart for some forgiveness – venegance will only destroy the person that is trying to cause the harm – no one deserves to be called a liar in a public forum – it is a shame that we have not gotten away from the Lee Atwater (may he rest in peace) School of Politics. Frankly it is a turn off and why people are sick an tired of DEMs and REPs beating up each other all of the time and seem more worried about their status as politicians versus just doing the right thing and helping the people they were elected to represent. Really do you know many politicians that truly care about their constituents….what in the heck happens to people when they go to DC – do aliens get them – tranform them into corrupt people where the norm is to one up the other person – tell outright lies when the truth is known – destroy people’s lives just because you can – cheat, steal – harass and have sex with interns in the most sacred of places – what is up with all of that garbage. Do politicians and their staff not understand that they have no right to be there without the vote of the citizen?

    I am a registered (I)and I have seen both men speak  through different mediums – Winter seems to be a bit more passionate about what he believes in – of course he has everything to gain and nothing to lose – Tancredo on the other hand has everything to lose – I do think sooner or later Tancredo will be pushed out either by Winter in 2006 or someone in his own party in 2008 – To me it looks as if Tancredo is on the defensive – of course his Party has not given him much ammunition – Foley, The Speaker, Delay, etc –

    1. In Tancredo’s case anyway.

      Tancredo was the head of the Colorado Term Limits movement, and over and over again pledged to keep his term-limit promise. Then he got power-hungry and claimed that God had told him to break his promise because he’s just too important.

      Earlier this campaign season Tancredo admitted that he’d broken his promise but claimed he had already changed his mind in his first term. No, that’s a lie: as late as 2001 – well into his 2nd term – he was telling the Rocky that keeping his pledge and his integrity was the “overriding issue.”

      Meanwhile, good honorable Republicans like Bob Shaffer and Bill Armstrong kept their own term limits promises, and in this day and age people actually accuse them of being chumps for doing so.

      It speaks volumes that the same Rocky that said Tancredo should be “booted out” in 2002 for his lying, now endorses him without even MENTIONING Tancredo’s lack of integrity. Totally disgusting.

  13. It’s not just the Winter campaign that’s whispering about this poll; I’ve heard it independently confirmed.  The problem is, we’re never likely to get our hands on it, so it remains a rumor.

    And I have to agree with other posters: Winter is up on those radio stations where he’s likely to make a difference.  He’s doing what he can with the money he has; by putting up spots on a variety of radio stations, he’s reaching a broad audience.

    Finally, I think the Dead Guvs are pretty desperate on their own if they think that Winter “lost” the Post’s endorsement.  Said endorsement was a sham and a throw-away to appease Republicans; the Post didn’t even claim to *like* Tancredo, nor did they think he had the better set of ideas than did Winter.

  14. “Then he got power-hungry and claimed that God had told him to break his promise because he’s just too important.”

    God formally retracted that statement two days later, but no one noticed, of course. It was buried somewhere on the 17th tablet.

  15. Angie Paccione wasted her money on high priced consultants who produced terrible ads. She accepted the recommendations of her staff and chose consultants who did not perform. We know where Angie’s money went.
    Bill Winter has blown through a lot of money and has nothing to show for it. No TV no direct mail and radio ads that seem produced in house. No one has seen any sign of Winter volunteer activity which was to have saved his campaign.

  16. I’m looking forward to election day when the truth comes out about how close the Tancredo/Winter race really is.

    For those who are claiming that Bill Winter is lying or “crying” let’s take a few things into account.

    1. Tancredo claimed that he would not be in Colorado at all until after election day. he was so confident he would be re-elected, as many others have been, that he had no intention to even campaign.

    2. Tancredo commissioned a poll on the race against his opponent to see how things were going. Right after this poll is taken, he comes back to Colorado and begins campaigning with a vengeance. Why? Because he was so far ahead in the poll? Makes no sense.

    3. If the poll shows that Tancredo is so far in the lead, why isn’t Tom publicizing those results? He’s an egotistical guy….if he were winning by a large margin, he would want people to know…and he wouldn’t be frantically trying to raise money now for his campaign.

    4. And yes, he is frantically trying to raise more money. It’s not hard to find a copy of the email he recently sent to his constituents claiming that Winter is running smear ads against him and now he needs hundreds of thousands of dollars to help defend himself.
      a. Winter is running smear ads? The bloggers here on their own account admit that Bill doesn’t have enough money to run ads…so how is he running smear ads?
      b. The only smear ads I’ve seen have been from Tancredo. He sent a direct mail piece showing Winter as a puppet to Pelosi and Ted Kennedy. Um, interesting since neither of those candidates have offered any financial support to Bill’s campaign. Showing once again the liar isn’t Bill….it’s Tom.

    5. This isn’t the year to count any democratic candidate for US congress out. Congress has a 16% approval rating. People are sick of it. So before you get arrogant and claim that Winter is lying about poll results…you might want to look at the facts. Mr. Tancredo was just named #6 in Rolling Stone Magazines list of the Top 10 worst Congressmen. People in Colorado aren’t happy with Mr. Tancredo’s antics and embarrassments to our state and his District. Even his own party is turning against him.

    It’s easy to get on a blog and blast Winter for not knowing what he’s doing…but for those of you who are counting him out–brace yourself for a surprise. This guy is not dumb and he’s certainly not a liar…if anything I’d say he’s brutally honest about things.

    If ever there was a year for an upset….this is it. And it’s high time we have someone like Winter representing us instead of a man who is known nationally as a “bigot”.

    So keep up your nasty accusations about Bill Winter if it makes you feel better. Personally I think the nay-sayers know that this guy just might be right about these polls, and those who don’t support him are threatened by that.

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