Robert Novak: Gov. leans Ritter; U.S. House + 20 for Dems; Senate +4 for Dems;

6 thoughts on “Robert Novak: Gov. leans Ritter; U.S. House + 20 for Dems; Senate +4 for Dems;”

1. I’ve been out of regular work for about 2 months now, so I’m turning into an information junkie. I’ve been monitoring the independent polls (and ignoring polls done by parties or campaigns) across the country for about 3 weeks now on a daily basis.

   Where is sits right now:
   Dems are polling to pick up 26 seats in the House and a net of 5 in the Senate (6 if you consider Lieberman winning as a Dem win, I don’t for these purposes).

   The three that are still too close to call in the Senate are: Virginia, Tenn. and Missouri. Virginia has recently started on a GOP lean, Missouri on a Dem lean and Tenn. has ben exactly tied for the last 4 polls taken. Any of these won by the Dems would be a pick-up for them. The Lieberman seat is the only seat is serious trouble of not being won by the Dem candidate, although New Jersey is still close enough it could turn at the last minute.

   In the House: there are 4 seats whose last polls have them tied:
   CO-5 (Fawcett v. Lamborn)
   CO-7 (waiting for new polling in this one, the tie is questionable given previous polling)
   KY-3 (the Dem came out of nowhere to be a sudden real challenge for GOP incumbent)
   IL-6 (open seat; this one has bounced right around the tied mark for over a month now)

   4 of the 26 which are currently polling as pickups are still within 3 points of each other. In addition there are an additional 17 GOP held House seats where the Dem is less than 5 points behind the Rep.

   There are no Dem-held seats currently polling as a loss for the Dems and only one that is a weak hold: IL-8 which is polling 48-46 in favor of the Dem.

   None of these numbers include Louisiana because of their free-for-all style of elections. The list all candidates on one ballot regardless of party in Nov. If no one gets a majority, the top two face off in a run-off in early Dec. The only incumbent in trouble is scandal-ridden Dem. William Jefferson (LA-2). There is an army of people running for his seat in addition to him. There are no open seats in Louisiana this year.

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   1. I read that some in the GOP are optimistic and that independent observers feel the GOP workers are demoralized and sandbagging.

      Don’t know what to believe.

      Good roundup, Dan.

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      1. But with absentee voting seeming to be the preferred method I wonder if the 72hr GOTV will be as effective in years past. I think a lot of people who know how they are going to have voted. I like to do it on election day because I am a nerd, but I wont be able to this year.

         There needs to be a poll done to determine the effectiveness of absentee ballots and the impact that it has.

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         1. Absentee and Early voting, where available, is being used very heavily this year.

            I usually here the last sprint in terms of a 96-hour marathon (Sat.-Tues.). In this case I expect more than 60% of the votes will be cast in election where absentee voting is available.

            15 states still have a mechanism where you have to have cause to get an absentee ballot. (Sorry, the info junkie think going again!)

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   2. he did something else last week that makes you wonder where he will be caucusing in Jan.  Even though he insists that he is still a Dem running as an Ind. Dem, he refused to endorse the Dem candidate for Gov,  He said that this year, his choice for Gov would remain a “private matter.”

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2. This has the potential of being a national sweep for Democrats at all levels.

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