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October 16, 2006 07:26 PM UTC

More Rumors from the Mill

  • by: Colorado Pols
  • Democrats are beginning to concede a loss in HD-23 to Republican Ramey Johnson. Incumbent Democrat Gwyn Green barely beat Johnson in 2004, and HD-23 hasn’t been kind to incumbents; nobody has served consecutive terms in this district for a decade.
  • Republicans have told Lew Entz that he is on his own financially in SD-5. Entz is down in the polls to Democrat Gail Schwartz, in large part because he sat on his hands for months. Entz didn’t raise any money until July, hoping that outside 527 groups would save his ass, and now those outside groups are telling him that the bank is closed.

  • Comments

    10 thoughts on “More Rumors from the Mill

    1. internal polling has Scwartz up by 17%

      Apparently Ed Jones is in trouble as well (he also did no fundraising).

      And Boyd looks like she will be okay.

      Dems hold the Senate with either 19 or 20 seats.

      1. to believe Schwartz is up by that much… or at all.  That’s probably right.  Schwartz in the Valley is like watching the Simple Life – slummin’ it with the regular folk.

    2. I work in the Johnson Green District and I don’t think Green is in trouble.  Also drove the Boyd district this weekend and think shee will be OK.  Will see.

    3. Governor Owens handed Rep. Green a great issue wanting to release serious felons into a half way house in her district. Green has gone door to door talking about this issue, hosted town hall meetings that have nearly five hundred people attending and is planning direct mail on the issue. Green has seen a marked turnaround in her numbers since this issue hit a few weeks ago. Johnson’s once large lead has been reversed and Green is now slightly ahead according to the latest poll taken by the House Democrats. On top of this Green is walking harder than candidates thirty years younger. Green has her ear so close to the ground that it is full of grasshoppers. That knowledge gave her the chance to pounce when Owens and the Republicans gave her the prisoner release issue.

    4. I don’t have any idea who has been feeding you the line that Gwyn doesn’t have anything other than a fantastic chance to hold her seat.

      She ran a close race last cycle when Ramey was the encumbent. That means she was strong enough to beat Ramey even giving Ramey the advantage of top line. It is akin to barely winning an arm wrestling contest when using your bad arm. This time Green is using her strong arm and Ramey is trying to fight the odds. It will be close, but Green has the advantage going in this time.

      There is no doubt that the up-ticket races are putting the wind at Gwyn’s back this time. Her district is not only getting a boost from the Ritter/Beauprez match up, but it is smack in the middle of where Perlmutter has people doing the heavy lifting of GOTV.
      The Perlmutter/Lamm primary cost the Dems some money in the fight against O’Donnell, but that money was spent reaching out to the Democratic base voters. Normally candidates are engaged in persuading the unaffilliated, but in HD23 Democrats have touched every voter this year. Johnson has had nowhere near the overlap in reaching out to her base. She and Gwyn have been go toe to toe for the swing voters, but will Johnson’s base show up?

      As to motivated orginization, I can tell you that Green’s people have been out in force every day, and nobody has a stronger operation in the field in Jefferson County. In the Texas Hold-’em game of Colorado politics, Gwy was dealt pocket aces with Margaret Chapman and Max Tyler. Chapman is her manager and has done a fantastic job of handling volunteers and literature. I spend many hours in the Jefferson County Dems HQ, and her crew are constantly gathering and mobilizing. It can be a hundred degrees out or pouring rain, and I know that there will be a team in the building preparing bundles of literature and taking them out on the street.
      Max Tyler is the Jefferson County Chair of HD23, and bar none he is the most effective and organized member of the party heirarchy. He used to do some sort of regional job for MoveOn, and it is clear that he is overkill for his current position… not that I am complaining. He has the most energized precinct committee people and a great grasp of both the human and technological issues. Between Max and Margaret, I think even a candidate facing a much steeper hill would have a fighting shot. On the battlefield that is HD23, Gwyn has not only the high ground of encumbency but has talented lieutenants in Chapman and Tyler to get the job done.

      I haven’t posted that much lately. It has been a while since ColPols was claiming that Lamm had Perlmutter on the ropes and I felt it important to set the record straight.
      This feels like the old days, and the rumor mill is grinding out bull again. The real buzz in Democratic circles is that this is a great year to be a Dem, and it is only in the most hopeless races where we are feeling discouraged. Gwyn Green is running one of the contests where we are feeling very strong and very engaged. No question about it, we are going to have to fight for every vote, but make no mistake, we are fighting and this is one we intend to win.

          1. yeah.  It sure would be a shame for Buescher to lose.  I think Buescher’s “positive” messaging hasn’t done much for him.  I think he’s losing.

    5. I suspect we will be waiting for the provisionals to be counted in both races before we have an outcome in the Green/Johnson race.

      In additon I am counting 4 other seats as “too close to call” in the house, two are current Dems and two are current GOP. If the GOP won all 5 of these house seats, the Dems would be down by 1.

      But there is a saving grace for Dems and his name is Joe Rice, who is a likely Dem pickup. So that leaves the Dems in the majority even if they loose all of the 5 close races.

      The 5 close ones are (with counties):
      Green/Johnson (Jefferson)
      Labuda/Rathburn (Denver/Arap)
      Riesberg/Owen (Weld)
      Gagliardi/Crane (Jefferson)
      Gardner/Lord (El Paso)

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