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October 04, 2006 10:32 PM UTC

Even Blake Calls CD-5 Potential Trouble

  • by: Colorado Pols

We’ve never wavered from our opinion that CD-5 probably isn’t winnable for a Democrat, despite the repeated follies of Republican Doug Lamborn. But this idea that Democrat Jay Fawcett could spring the upset is starting to get some legs, and the longer it continues, the more likely it is that Fawcett could end up getting a last-minute infusion of cash from national Democrats. If that happens, then it could spell doom for other Republican candidates hoping to win big in the Colorado Springs area (such as gubernatorial hopeful Bob Beauprez).

Today Peter Blake of the Rocky Mountain News, a columnist who spends most of his time re-writing Republican news releases, actually jumped on the bandwagon that CD-5 could be a winnable seat for Democrats. You know this idea is growing if Blake sees fit to write about it.


24 thoughts on “Even Blake Calls CD-5 Potential Trouble

  1. …he’s incredibly cute.  Much cuter than Fawcett.  And that’s what I like to base my vote on.

    No, seriously… I am a CD-5 voter in Colorado Springs.  I was a registered Republican but just changed to unaffiliated.  I’ve been edging toward Democrat and the Republicans behavior this year finally did it for me.

    A) There’s no plan whatsoever to get us out of Iraq.  None.  Republicans have been scrambling to distance themselves from Bush and his failures in Iraq.  And let’s not forget that he lied to get us to go along with it in the first place.  The American people are finally starting to wise up.  But Lamborn is still saying “stay the course” right alongside Bush.  Give me a plan… any plan.  Then we can talk.  Fawcett at least has one.

    B) I’m turned off by the fact that Colorado Springs voters are lemmings.  They would vote for a talking horse if it had an R behind its name.  With Fawcett’s background and experience, he’s a great candidate and could win… the only thing he would need to change is the letter behind his name.

    C) I am really turned off by the fact that Lamborn won the primary by trying to out-bigot the other candidates by screaming, “I’m more anti-gay that you are!”  I happen to be gay, and hate the fact that members of my former party win elections by bashing gays and making people hate me.  (Musgrave has got to go too… please get off it, lady.  Address another topic.  Any other topic.  There’s got to be something else you could be doing when you’re not busy taking dirty money.) 50 years ago they were screaming that interracial marriage was wrong.  If I can’t get equal rights, I’d settle for not having to fear being murdered thanks to your words of hate.  Please just leave the mooing puppy alone.  It’s not going to hurt you and it doesn’t want to have anything to do with your family (unless the mooing puppy is Republican and its name is Foley).

    D) I am a Christian and I like people with some sort of moral standards.  But please, Lamborn is an ultra-right-wing nutjob.  He could make Musgrave look like a liberal.  A reasonable Christian like Ritter is perfect, but Lamborn is just too much for me.

    I would love to see Fawcett beat Lamborn.  I’d love it more than just about anything.  But I agree that it’s not going to happen.  There are just too many people in CD-5 that blindly mark R without thinking.  If I had to put my money where it might actually make a difference, I would put it on Paccione in CD-4.

  2. Big bombshell dropping next week that will do Lamborn in.  Fawcett is doing everything right in this race and will be beneficiary of a terrible Republican year and terrible candidate in Lamborn.

      1. The 5th is rock solid conservative Republican territory.  Event the U’s lean R.  Fawcett may have a military background but I just don’t see it. Doung barley survives with 52% and a 8,000 vote margin.

    1. I’ve got a hunch CONSIN isn’t on this board to make idle boasts but pointed comments leading up to a revelation next week.  Time will prove the bonafides or not of CONSIN’s claim.

      Where’s Mr. Handy2001 and blah when we need them? What so you, as the Lamborn Twin Shills?

  3. Why is it in politics, that people compare elction cycle to election cycle never paying attention to the inflows and outflows that takes place when residents uproots and change addresses?

    Sure the race may be close, but does anyone in El paso County remember when the numbers were relatively even.  Say 1982, 33% R, 33% D and 33% U.  Of course not.

    Fact is, even when the numbers were much closer (in terms of registartion), Ken Kramer still defeated Tom Cronin.

    Today, the spread between party affiliation is much greater, and you still think that Jay Fawcett can win?

    Just goes to show you, all of you short timers to Colorado come here pretending to know what really goes on.  The ink has barely dreid on your “Change of Address Cards” and you still know more than everyone else.

    Fact is, Fawcett and the likes of others who move here in search of a political career, generally end up failing.  Its called “Lack of Name Recognition” and voter identity.

    As I have said before, the Dems will not fare any better than one House seat, and possibly one Senate seat.  That doesn’;t bode well for Fawcett.

    Any one running numbers on Lamborn and Fawcett lately?  Bet if Fawcett was really putting up such stiff opposition they would be dropping numbers almost daily.  Instead, like Silence of the Lambs.  No new news on the home front.

    1. Maybe some of the Dems are feeling a bit of euphoria with the way things have been going the past few days (and since the primary) and think Fawcett can win. But the real news is that this seat is even remotely competitive. It speaks volumes about both this particular race and the midterms as a whole. No, it’s still a real stretch to imagine Fawcett pulling it out (barring a true Lamborn catastrophe, like he comes out as pro Al Quada or something) but the registration number say, this race is a slam dunk for the Republicans every time. (Of course, if more CD5 R’s had bothered to show up for the primary – you know, arguably the most important election for this seat since Hefley first won it – maybe this discussion wouldn’t be happening…)

    2. I dont think a single poster on this site does not realize the great divide in voter registration in CD-5. Anyone who follows politics closely knows that this has been for a long time a safe republican seat. That is only compounded by the disproportionate number of military families and religious conservatives that live in and around the springs.

      Do you seriously believe that when Fawcett retired from the military he looked around the country and said to himself “as a democrat where I am most likely to get elected to the USHoR? Hey! Colorado Springs!” Any democrat that thinks they can win outright in that district is delusional. But maybe someone wants to run for the experience, or for the off-chance that country as a whole and members of the district he is running in are so fed up with the current republican administration that they will look at a moderate democrat as a breath of fresh air even if only for one term. He may not have the name recognition some would like, but Lionel Rivera was the mayor of Colorado Springs and look how much good it did him. Same with Crank.

      If you seriously believe that the dems on a national level will only gain one house and senate seat than you are blind to the realities of national politics. Look at the state polls too. BWB is so far down that there will be negative coattails for other repubs. Sure some statewide races will probably go repub, but nothing as important as governor can stem the tide of disaffection.

      Polls are expensive to run. And why release them if they are going to highlight something for your opponent? Maybe Fawcett is within the margin of error, but doesnt want to release that until it is closer to election time to prevent Lamborn from pulling out a few tricks. Maybe Fawcett is as far down as BWB is in the governor’s race but doesnt want to release it in the offchance it may hurt dem turnout in the area. There are a lot of variables and taking the myopic republican view of the race does not mean that you are right, only that you refuse to consider options that are not favorable to your guy.

  4. But with Foley-gate on the front page and who knows what else coming down the pike – he could. He just might do it…

    And wouldn’t that be cool. FWIW – I made a donation to him. I love the long but possible shots.

    Now if only it turns out that Foley and Tancredo were “good friends.” That would make Colorado a blow-out. (Note: I am not saying they are, might be, could be, etc. just that I wish…)

  5. At least that’s what I hear.  They’re scheduled to debate in Canon City Thursday evening the 5th, at 7pm, at City Hall.  And I think they’re also supposed to debate at the Action 22 Fall Conference in Colorado Springs on October 14th.  Those in the area can attend either event – or both!

  6. I would LOVE to see Jay win.  I remain unconvinced, however.

    1.  Jay has never campaigned before.
    2.  He has rasied almost no money.
    3.  Bush’s approval ratings are STILL in the 60 percentiles in El Paso county.  WHAT IS IT GOING TO TAKE FOLKS!  DOES HE HAVE TO PERSONALLY KILL SOMEONE ON LIVE TV?!!

    (as an aside I honestly think that Bush could screw a donkey on Fox News LIVE and El Paso republicans would explain it away as an analogy for what Bush “would like to do to the Democratic party!)

  7. but I would point out three things:

    One; the Gazette – while libertarian – is not so firmly in the R camp as it used to be. Look at today’s front page (the day Fawcett and Lamborn debate) – four stories (in column inch order): disbanding an Iraqi police brigade for death squad activities (Iraq bad news #1); A Washington Post article on Denny Hastert; an article on how under equiped the Colorado National Guard is; and a story on $425,000 salasires for charity bosses. Show me one article there that helps the R base – when the Gazette starts piling on you have to wonder.

    Two; Colorado Springs has two very distinct camps; the evangelicals of the north and northeast side and the fiscal/libertarian group of the southwest side (the Broadmoor et al.) The local HD race Dem candidate on the southwest side is running about 50 to 1 on yard signs in voter yards on that side over the R candidate, there is no state senate race in that area, John Suthers is local and has lots of signs but that’s about it. I think that area of the county may surprise people. There are a lot of the non-evangelical group that aren’t over thrilled with Lamborn – there were a lot of Crank supporters there – and you may find the “Fawcett for two is a lot better than Lamborn for twenty” argument goes over well there.

    Three; Lamborn has been invisible down here. He has had about zero earned press. Joe Michelli has had Jay Fawcett on as much or more than Lamborn. Reports to me (sorry, I don’t listen to Joe) are that Joe is now saying “I endorsed Doug, I’m voting for Doug but Jay is the real deal and a good guy.” When the talk show endorsers start saying nice things about your opponent, things are not going your way.

    Would at 53-47 win for Lamborn surprise me? No, but neither would a 53-57 Fawcett win. And that has to scare the hell out of the party establishment.

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