Tancredo: Maes is the REAL "Third Party Candidate"
11 Comments
by: Colorado Pols
Writes the Colorado Independent’sTaran Volckhausen:
American Constitutional Party candidate Tom Tancredo fired back at Colorado Republican nominee for governor Dan Maes Wednesday, calling on the brand new nominee to do the right thing now that he has won the nomination and withdraw from the race. After winning the GOP primary Tuesday, Maes called on Tancredo, a right wing icon in the state, to withdraw his third party bid for governor. Tancredo told the Colorado Independent he was having none of it.
“I have the same request of [Maes],” Tancredo said. “I think that he’s the third-party candidate and it’d be a good idea for him to drop out to reduce the split among conservative voters.”
Maes was equally frank in talking about Tancredo at his victory party Tuesday.
“Tonight is a celebration, but there is an 800-pound gorilla in the room we must address,” he said. “Mr. Tancredo, stop your campaign tonight!”
The Independent notes the recent Public Policy poll showing that, if the election were held this week, Tom Tancredo would actually earn more votes than the GOP nominee–this has a way of lending credence to Tancredo’s assertion that he is the ‘real’ Republican conservative in this race. The actual GOP, on the other hand, seems to have resigned itself to the fact that Dan Maes is not going to pull out of this race, and Jane Norton (or another competitive candidate) will not be rescuing the party from this self-inflicted disaster as fleetingly hoped. Moreover, contrary to some suggestions we’ve received, we don’t think big GOP donors will want to pull a Joe Lieberman and switch to Tancredo, as Maes’ defiance would render such a move highly embarrassing–not to mention the toxicity a show of support for Tancredo would rub off on other races.
It’s been reported widely that Maes did not receive any significant congratulations from GOP leadership outside of the obligatory and grudging variety following Scott McInnis’ concession yesterday morning, and nobody we’ve talked to has delusions that Republican wallets will open for Maes to any significant degree. After all, he’d probably just write checks to himself with it. Efforts are reportedly turning to channeling those resources into state legislative races, and developing a message for the GOP downticket that minimizes the damage Maes–and Tancredo–can do.
And that, barring a supernatural event, is the story of Colorado’s 2010 gubernatorial election.
11 thoughts on “Tancredo: Maes is the REAL “Third Party Candidate””
Hick’s job will be to rah-rah Democrats and Independents to the polls, focusing on legislative and county candidates. Undervoting from the top-of-the-ticket races down to the county races can determine wins or losses.
Hickenlooper’s tenure as governor won’t be effective if he’s surrounded by the opposition party. And then there’s the redistricting exercise in 2011.
In reality, Hickenlooper’s campaign responsibilities just got more complicated.
In a previous post, I speculated that Hickenlooper would win a plurality because I thought Maes could pull in the mid 20’s and Tancredo could break 30%. I am now reassessing.
I think Tancredo will break 30% and he might get as much as 33% – but it comes at the expense of Maes. I am now starting to think that Maes will be lucky to break 20%, and could fall as low as 15%.
I do not see Maes breaking 20% in Denver County or Boulder. He probably will in El Paso, Douglas and Mesa – but Tancredo can hurt him really badly there as well.
Hickenlooper might pull in the low 50’s if Tancredo just siphons votes from Maes.
If the high results for Tancredo pan out the ACP gets all the fun that comes with major party status which require Presidential caucuses I believe. —
Colorado Revised Statutes
TITLE 1 ELECTIONS
GENERAL, PRIMARY, AND CONGRESSIONAL VACANCY ELECTIONS
ARTICLE 1 ELECTIONS GENERALLY
PART 1 DEFINITIONS AND GENERAL PROVISIONS
1-1-104. Definitions.
(22) “Major political party” means any political party that at the last preceding gubernatorial election was represented on the official ballot either by political party candidates or by individual nominees and whose candidate at the last preceding gubernatorial election received at least ten percent of the total gubernatorial votes cast.
I’d love for the ACP to get a shot at top billing, but the responsibilities entailed could overwhelm the Party.
Another angle: This will cause significant harm to the state GOP. When folks who are attracted to the energy and newness of the Tea Party calm down and think about this, they may not want to seal the fate of the GOP, and vote for Maes just to forestall the inevitable demise.
BGM, if the WaPo doesn’t pick up your story, they aren’t really authoritative on politics anymore. This is THE BIGGEST POLITICAL STORY of this election cycle, nationwide, so far. Even bigger than BasilMarceaux.com.
the weak 3rd-party candidate, then Maes is on real trouble.
US Voters, for the most part, just won’t vote for a weak 3rd-party as they don’t want to throw their vote away. cf. Libertarians’ awesome successesВЎ
Tommy is trying to stick Danny with a big letter “L”. Danny better get out in front of this ASAP. I suspect, however, that when the first fund-raising numbers are releases that Tommy’s positioning will stick.
August 12, 2010 11:29 AM MDT
11 Comments
Hick’s job will be to rah-rah Democrats and Independents to the polls, focusing on legislative and county candidates. Undervoting from the top-of-the-ticket races down to the county races can determine wins or losses.
Hickenlooper’s tenure as governor won’t be effective if he’s surrounded by the opposition party. And then there’s the redistricting exercise in 2011.
In reality, Hickenlooper’s campaign responsibilities just got more complicated.
In a previous post, I speculated that Hickenlooper would win a plurality because I thought Maes could pull in the mid 20’s and Tancredo could break 30%. I am now reassessing.
I think Tancredo will break 30% and he might get as much as 33% – but it comes at the expense of Maes. I am now starting to think that Maes will be lucky to break 20%, and could fall as low as 15%.
I do not see Maes breaking 20% in Denver County or Boulder. He probably will in El Paso, Douglas and Mesa – but Tancredo can hurt him really badly there as well.
Hickenlooper might pull in the low 50’s if Tancredo just siphons votes from Maes.
If the high results for Tancredo pan out the ACP gets all the fun that comes with major party status which require Presidential caucuses I believe. —
Colorado Revised Statutes
TITLE 1 ELECTIONS
GENERAL, PRIMARY, AND CONGRESSIONAL VACANCY ELECTIONS
ARTICLE 1 ELECTIONS GENERALLY
PART 1 DEFINITIONS AND GENERAL PROVISIONS
1-1-104. Definitions.
(22) “Major political party” means any political party that at the last preceding gubernatorial election was represented on the official ballot either by political party candidates or by individual nominees and whose candidate at the last preceding gubernatorial election received at least ten percent of the total gubernatorial votes cast.
Maes fails to receive at least ten percent?
Almost certainly won’t happen, but . . .
Its hard enough for the D’s and R’s to do and they have thousands of people.
.
I had no idea.
I’d love for the ACP to get a shot at top billing, but the responsibilities entailed could overwhelm the Party.
Another angle: This will cause significant harm to the state GOP. When folks who are attracted to the energy and newness of the Tea Party calm down and think about this, they may not want to seal the fate of the GOP, and vote for Maes just to forestall the inevitable demise.
BGM, if the WaPo doesn’t pick up your story, they aren’t really authoritative on politics anymore. This is THE BIGGEST POLITICAL STORY of this election cycle, nationwide, so far. Even bigger than BasilMarceaux.com.
.
Get a grip!
amidoinitrite?
the weak 3rd-party candidate, then Maes is on real trouble.
US Voters, for the most part, just won’t vote for a weak 3rd-party as they don’t want to throw their vote away. cf. Libertarians’ awesome successesВЎ
Tommy is trying to stick Danny with a big letter “L”. Danny better get out in front of this ASAP. I suspect, however, that when the first fund-raising numbers are releases that Tommy’s positioning will stick.
To the extent that you can help him fight “the good fight” with your advice, God bless you.
But Maes is not going to be elected.