The Big Line: 2014

*NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols' estimated chances of winning a particular race
Numbers should not be read as estimations of final margins of victory.


(D) Mark Udall* (60%)
Polls are all over the place, and all may be inaccurate anyway. Dems quietly growing more confident by the day.

(R) Cory Gardner* (40%)
Gardner momentum is as authentic as the McRib sandwich. If Gardner were really ahead, these fact-free attack ads wouldn't be on the air.


(D) John Hickenlooper* (68%)
Momentum? Perhaps, but it's more likely the case that Hickenlooper has always been comfortably ahead.

(R) Bob Beauprez* (32%)
Candidates who feel good about their position in the race don't resort to sleazy attack ads that are torn apart by editorial boards.


(R) Cynthia Coffman* (60%)
If downballot polling is accurate, Coffman is in good shape with one week left.

(D) Don Quick* (40%)
Hard to tell if a better campaign would have made a difference; in retrospect, this may have been unwinnable for Quick.


(R) Walker Stapleton* (51%)
This is what panic looks like. Stapleton in free-fall, flailing desperately against ad about his lax work habits.

(D) Betsy Markey* (49%)
How quickly things can change in politics. Take one good ad, combine with poor response from opponent, and you have the makings of an upset.

(D) Joe Neguse* (50%)
All things being equal, Neguse is a shoo-in here. But with chaos at the top of the ticket, this is not in Neguse's control.

(R) Wayne Williams* (50%)
Really, really, really bad at fundraising. Really bad at debates. There's no good reason that Williams should win, but he might anyway.

(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election. Period.


(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Not going to lose a General Election in 2014. Maybe longer.


(R) Scott Tipton* (80%)
Tipton has been careful not to step on any land mines, so he should skip to another term.

(D) Abel Tapia* (20%)
Too little, too late, and too much else going on around him to get a foothold.

(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
Buck could have stopped campaigning a month ago and still won this race. The numbers are too good.

(D) Vic Meyers* (20%)
Democrats wouldn't have much of a shot here anyway, but Meyers isn't quite a household name in CD-4.


(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)
Lamborn is in campaign-imposed exile because he is the biggest threat to his own re-election.

(D) Irv Halter* (30%)
Halter would beat Lamborn at anything, anywhere, anytime…except maybe in GOP-heavy district like CO-5.

(D) Andrew Romanoff* (50%)
Romanoff seems to be a slight favorite from our vantage point, but this is truly too close to call.

(R) Mike Coffman* (50%)
The end seems very real for a flustered, frustrated Coffman; still, another term wouldn't be a complete surprise.

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (85%)
Perlmutter has beaten much tougher opponents in more difficult election cycles.

(R) Don Ytterberg* (15%)
Um, yeah, no.

Democrats have a lot of seats to defend, but each competitive race looks favorable.

Three of the most competitive Senate seats are in Jefferson County. Bad news for GOP.


Democrats have better candidates, better campaigns, and better fundraising efforts across the board.

Republican House Majority effort has been a disaster. We're guessing this is the last time Rep. Libby Szabo is put in charge of anything.



The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…

Usage allowed with credit to

45 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. CDW says:

    I don't understand the numbers after the names.  What do they mean?

  2. mamajama55 says:

    Would really like to see Gessler run for Governor. I don't think that he's electable, too much ethics baggage and voter suppression history. But at least, we'd have a chance of getting a Secretary of State who actually cares about voters and elections.

  3. WestSloper says:

    On an Aspen NPR radio program last week, it was said Sen. Gail Schwartz was not running for 3rd CD.

  4. GalapagoLarry says:

    Wo, after all the suspense (and fright, fear, apprehension and, untimately, depression) Dianna's campaign has recovered. May we all bow our heads in silent gratitude.

  5. Half Glass Full says:

    I think you're being kind to Mr. Baumgardner in giving him 1-18 odds.

  6. roccoprahn says:

    Betsy Markey was a very moderate Democrat that cast a very courageous yes vote on the Affordable Care Act.

    She sacrificed a slot in the US House of Representatives to vote her conscience, and the rubes in CD4 have only themselves to blame for the embarrassment that cory gardner has caused them.

    When you compare her resume with stapleton's, the difference in her professionalism, her experience since her early reagan days in '84 through her Homeland Security tenure, her business acumen and her pragmatism put up against stapleton's sunny but dim lemming personality and track record is stark and telling.

    Betsy Markey should win statewide, but she'll need money.

  7. Harley says:

    I recently got a phone call about Stan Garnett looking for money—any thing on that?

    If he isn't running–whu is he looking for money?

  8. JDuncs283 says:

    Gessler and Kopp are NOT the guys to get the job done against Hick.  They can be beaten with the same old dirty democrat playbook.  We need someone who stands out amongst the crowd and is willing to stand UP for ALL of Colorado.

    • Gilpin Guy says:

      Yeah like Mr. hate anybody with a colored skin Tom Tancredo.  He is someone who will surely stand up for ALL WHITE Coloradoans.  That's a winning ticket for sure.

  9. nikswhite7 says:

    Like Tancredo you mean???  He's a good conservative but absolutely unelectable statewide.  There is no way he can reach across to enough Dems to defeat Hickenlooper.  Good man but a losing candidate.  We need to win!

  10. mamajama55 says:

    Pols, you should update the Sec of State line. Condolences to Ken Gordon's family.

  11. justavoter says:

    Who comes up with the odds?  Looking at the big line in the AGs race and Coffman has out raised both Quick and Waller for the past two quarters and you have Quick ahead in this race?  Waller is out, it's only pride keeping him in.  Quick has no competition and should be raising double what Coffman is if he is going to be competitive in the general election. Side by side comparison by any objective measurement and Coffman is the odds on favorite.

  12. yameniye says:

    Is DC ready for Buffie?  I can imagine Andrew, Jared, Ed and Buffie doing Nellies for a Bronco's, Av's, Nuggets or Rockies game  (I doubt Mark, Michael and Diana would go there).

  13. davebarnes says:

    "He'll [Mike] probably drop out near April 12 State Convention. "
    You guys suck at forecasting.

  14. the midwesterner says:

    When will we see some odds for control of the state house/senate?

  15. DenverMom says:

    Is this based on polling or just guesses?  The NYT has Colorado as a toss up in the Senate race.  

  16. Andrew Carnegie says:

    Gardner ahead in polls, increase percentage for Udall.

    Beauprez ahead in polls, increase percentage for Hick.

    Coffman-Romanoff, Prognosticators move race from toss-up to tilt Republican, increase percentage for Romanoff.

    As the Dems sink, Pols doubles down.


  17. ProgressiveCowboy says:

    How often is 'The Big Line' updated?

    Is there a way of telling when the last update was?


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