*NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols' estimated chances of winning a particular race
Numbers should not be read as estimations of final margins of victory.
U.S. SENATE
(D) Mark Udall* (60%)
Polls are all over the place, and all may be inaccurate anyway. Dems quietly growing more confident by the day.
(R) Cory Gardner* (40%)↓
Gardner momentum is as authentic as the McRib sandwich. If Gardner were really ahead, these fact-free attack ads wouldn't be on the air.
GOVERNOR
(D) John Hickenlooper* (68%)↑
Momentum? Perhaps, but it's more likely the case that Hickenlooper has always been comfortably ahead.
(R) Bob Beauprez* (32%)↓
Candidates who feel good about their position in the race don't resort to sleazy attack ads that are torn apart by editorial boards.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
(R) Cynthia Coffman* (60%)↑
If downballot polling is accurate, Coffman is in good shape with one week left.
(D) Don Quick* (40%)↓
Hard to tell if a better campaign would have made a difference; in retrospect, this may have been unwinnable for Quick.
STATE TREASURER
(R) Walker Stapleton* (51%)↓
This is what panic looks like. Stapleton in free-fall, flailing desperately against ad about his lax work habits.
(D) Betsy Markey* (49%)↑
How quickly things can change in politics. Take one good ad, combine with poor response from opponent, and you have the makings of an upset.
SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (50%)↑
All things being equal, Neguse is a shoo-in here. But with chaos at the top of the ticket, this is not in Neguse's control.
(R) Wayne Williams* (50%)
Really, really, really bad at fundraising. Really bad at debates. There's no good reason that Williams should win, but he might anyway.
CD-1 (DENVER)
(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election. Period.
CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)
(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Not going to lose a General Election in 2014. Maybe longer.
CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (80%)↑
Tipton has been careful not to step on any land mines, so he should skip to another term.
(D) Abel Tapia* (20%)↓
Too little, too late, and too much else going on around him to get a foothold.
CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
Buck could have stopped campaigning a month ago and still won this race. The numbers are too good.
(D) Vic Meyers* (20%)
Democrats wouldn't have much of a shot here anyway, but Meyers isn't quite a household name in CD-4.
CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)↓
Lamborn is in campaign-imposed exile because he is the biggest threat to his own re-election.
(D) Irv Halter* (30%)↑
Halter would beat Lamborn at anything, anywhere, anytime…except maybe in GOP-heavy district like CO-5.
CD-6 (AURORA)
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (50%)
Romanoff seems to be a slight favorite from our vantage point, but this is truly too close to call.
(R) Mike Coffman* (50%)
The end seems very real for a flustered, frustrated Coffman; still, another term wouldn't be a complete surprise.
CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (85%)↑
Perlmutter has beaten much tougher opponents in more difficult election cycles.
(R) Don Ytterberg* (15%)↓
Um, yeah, no.
STATE SENATE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (55%)↑
Democrats have a lot of seats to defend, but each competitive race looks favorable.
REPUBLICANS (45%)↓
Three of the most competitive Senate seats are in Jefferson County. Bad news for GOP.
STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (75%)↑
Democrats have better candidates, better campaigns, and better fundraising efforts across the board.
REPUBLICANS (25%)↓
Republican House Majority effort has been a disaster. We're guessing this is the last time Rep. Libby Szabo is put in charge of anything.
The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…
Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.
I don't understand the numbers after the names. What do they mean?
They represent our projected odds of winning the General Election in 2014. Here are a few examples of how the fractional odds translate to probability percentages:
(1-100): 99% probability of winning
(1-3): 75%
(1-1): 50%
(3-1): 25%
Thank you.
Wouldn't it be easier to just put the percentages likelihood of a win? You know the 99%, 75%, etc.
It's all extremely scientific. If I remember correctly, it is based on the number of times they hit a dead chicken with a rubber band while drinking whiskey shots and Fat Tire.
OOOooohh I would like to be on this committee – whiskey shots and Fat tires? Sounds good to me!!
Does the whiskey and beer have to be distilled and brewed here in Colorado?
not according to my understanding of the rules….
Only if the chicken isn't free range.
Stranahan's and a local brew Fat Tire and Rail Yard Ale are acceptable
Would really like to see Gessler run for Governor. I don't think that he's electable, too much ethics baggage and voter suppression history. But at least, we'd have a chance of getting a Secretary of State who actually cares about voters and elections.
On an Aspen NPR radio program last week, it was said Sen. Gail Schwartz was not running for 3rd CD.
Wo, after all the suspense (and fright, fear, apprehension and, untimately, depression) Dianna's campaign has recovered. May we all bow our heads in silent gratitude.
I think you're being kind to Mr. Baumgardner in giving him 1-18 odds.
Betsy Markey was a very moderate Democrat that cast a very courageous yes vote on the Affordable Care Act.
She sacrificed a slot in the US House of Representatives to vote her conscience, and the rubes in CD4 have only themselves to blame for the embarrassment that cory gardner has caused them.
When you compare her resume with stapleton's, the difference in her professionalism, her experience since her early reagan days in '84 through her Homeland Security tenure, her business acumen and her pragmatism put up against stapleton's sunny but dim lemming personality and track record is stark and telling.
Betsy Markey should win statewide, but she'll need money.
I recently got a phone call about Stan Garnett looking for money—any thing on that?
If he isn't running–whu is he looking for money?
Be careful. That was Stann Garnet who called.
If you are crazy enough to give it to him, why do you think he is looking for money?
It was probably for his son, Alec, who is running in State House District 2-Mark Farrandino's term-limited seat,
Time to update it
http://www.jimrundberg.com/
http://stevehouseforgovernor.com/
http://www.mcmillanforcolorado.com/
Gessler and Kopp are NOT the guys to get the job done against Hick. They can be beaten with the same old dirty democrat playbook. We need someone who stands out amongst the crowd and is willing to stand UP for ALL of Colorado.
Yeah like Mr. hate anybody with a colored skin Tom Tancredo. He is someone who will surely stand up for ALL WHITE Coloradoans. That's a winning ticket for sure.
Like Tancredo you mean??? He's a good conservative but absolutely unelectable statewide. There is no way he can reach across to enough Dems to defeat Hickenlooper. Good man but a losing candidate. We need to win!
There is one Republican in the State who can beat Hickenlooper and that is John Suthers. John Suthers is not running however so the Republicans will lose this race.
I agree.
Hi dwyer. Long time no see. Hope all is well.
oops. Just noticed this is areally old thread! How did this happen? I got here clicking on a recent comment from skinny.
Pols, you should update the Sec of State line. Condolences to Ken Gordon's family.
Time to update the BL and and add http://larrysarnerforcongress.com/
Who comes up with the odds? Looking at the big line in the AGs race and Coffman has out raised both Quick and Waller for the past two quarters and you have Quick ahead in this race? Waller is out, it's only pride keeping him in. Quick has no competition and should be raising double what Coffman is if he is going to be competitive in the general election. Side by side comparison by any objective measurement and Coffman is the odds on favorite.
Is DC ready for Buffie? I can imagine Andrew, Jared, Ed and Buffie doing Nellies for a Bronco's, Av's, Nuggets or Rockies game (I doubt Mark, Michael and Diana would go there).
There are those of us in CDThree, who are more than ready for Buffie…and would very much like to say goodbye to Scotty "always wrong" Tipton
"He'll [Mike] probably drop out near April 12 State Convention. "
You guys suck at forecasting.
When will we see some odds for control of the state house/senate?
Is this based on polling or just guesses? The NYT has Colorado as a toss up in the Senate race.
The 65/35 split in the Senate race is just a fancy way of saying "Udall probably has the edge but we don't feel comfortable saying that he's likely to win or safe."
Gardner ahead in polls, increase percentage for Udall.
Beauprez ahead in polls, increase percentage for Hick.
Coffman-Romanoff, Prognosticators move race from toss-up to tilt Republican, increase percentage for Romanoff.
As the Dems sink, Pols doubles down.
I double checked.
That was not fair.
You did not increase their percentages, just failed to reflect they are now not favored.
Not fair? Oh, for heaven's sake, do you have any idea how that sounds?.
Shill all you want, dimbulb. Nobody around her buys your spun bullshit. Not today, not tomorrow, not next week.
We intend to pound you and yours intio the hard ground politically come November. Brace yourself.
DP, so define pound into the ground.
Lose the Seante, seats in the house?
I can take that.
Well, your buddies at Redstate seem to think that it could go either way. Kansas and Lousiana? Not sure things. Mississippi? Forget it. Alaska? Impossible to say. Colorado? A battle to the bitter end.
They're not throwing out "seven sure Senate seats" like you are. No sane Democrat thinks we'll retake the House this election cycle (dustpuppy – carefully not looking your way, dear), but we do expect to be able to close the margin.
Call me insane, mama, but I think the numbers are there. Even in the gerrymandered districts.
If Jeffco can't turn blue this November, then I'll eat my hat. Or something.
Who gets to pick?….
How often is 'The Big Line' updated?
Is there a way of telling when the last update was?