December 31, 2010 10:37 AM UTC

What's Going To Happen in 2011 Colorado Politics

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• by: MADCO

End of year

Last year at year end I made some predictions   What’s Going To Happen in 2010  Colorado Politics

I missed a few – but I also got some right.

So let’s do it again.

2011

The script is already written for the biggest local political story, whether it’s treated as such or not.  redistricting will start with polite bi-partisan baloney.  It won’t be sincere, but I don’t think the D’s will fall for the R’s let’s compromise by giving us everything we want  So it will be partisan and somewhat rancorous. The lines will move, but not that much.  CDs 1, 2 5, and 6 will remain safe and none of the incumbents there will be seriously primaried, nor challenged (as long as there’s no Appalachian Trail hiking)

The state budget will be balanced. There will be cuts in education spending.

Colorado oil and gas production will follow the prices.  Retail gasoline prices will go up, gas taxes will not.

RefC expires.  There will be a TABOR law suit in Colorado. The basic gist will be that TABOR is unconstitutional  because the net effect is that Colorado does not have a “republican form of gov’t” as guaranteed by Article 4, Section 4 of the US Constitution because the elected legislators cannot raise taxes.  And because of Amendment 23, the Gallagher Amendment and one or two others, in fact, the elected Legislature cannot follow all the Colorado Constitutional requirements when budgeting.  

The public arguments about TABOR will boil down to -“less filling – tastes great”- higher taxes or lower taxes, but there is no denying TABOR gives the Colorado voters of  1992 more say in our budget than we had on theirs. No other states will adopt TABOR in 2011, though some will continue to talk about it.

Dave Schulteis will say some outlandish things, though perhaps not as insane as claiming that babies of unwed mothers should be born with AIDS. Perhaps.   So will Laura Boggs, though perhaps not as harsh as schools are stupid. Perhaps.

Doug Bruce will not pay the fine just levied. The SOS will not be serious about collecting. Jose Silva will continue to owe for similar violations. As will some of Gessler’s former clients.

At least one Colorado legislator will claim that Colorado should start stockpiling gold and silver.  At least one Colorado legislator will claim that Colorado should bid   on the next available Olympics.

The “Consumer Finance Protection Agency (CFPA)” will continue to come to life. As deadlines for CFPA’s progress approach, the banks and sympathetic politicos will demonize Elizabeth Warren as an overreaching liberal hack out to destroy the best banking system in the world.  

Despite campaign rhetoric about 50%, an end to earmarks, and other hoopla about less spending, the Obama tax cuts will drive up the deficit.  

The 2009 healthcare reform will not be repealed.  (Well, except for the death panels and the 16,500 new IRS agents.)

The end of DADT will be forgotten so fast that by the end of next year people will mistakenly  believe that it was ended years earlier.

The 2012 presidential election cycle will start in earnest any minute now.  There will be no serious D challenger to the President.  There will be a large, cacophonous R field.  (2012 – Iowa and New Hampshire will go first. Palin will not win the Colorado caucus and the eventual R nominee will not have won   Colorado.)  Birthers will get local media through 2011.

The Av’s will not win the Cup (nor will the Blackhawks repeat).  The Broncos will draft for offense.  The Nuggets will go out no later than round 2.  The Rockies will be fun to watch – if they stay healthy, they will win 88+ and contend. Colorado will suck in the Pac 10 12,  worse than Washington State and worse than Utah in football. (Dan Caplis will not criticize da Buffs, unless he can blame a D.)

H-Man will continue to owe me $50.