The Big Line: 2024

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2024 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: December 2, 2022

 

PRESIDENT (TO WIN COLORADO)

(D) Joe Biden* (80%)
The 2022 election proved that Colorado is now a solid blue state.

(R) Donald Trump (20%)↓
Trump lost Colorado in 2016 and 2020. If he’s the Republican nominee in 2024, he’ll lose here again.

 

 


CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (80%)
DeGette only has to worry about a potential Democratic Primary. While some have tried in recent cycles, nobody has been able to sustain a real challenge.

 

 


CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Like DeGette, Neguse would only worry about a Primary challenge, but that’s extremely unlikely.

 

 


CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (60%)
Voters soured quickly on Boebert’s antics after her first election in 2020; only about 500 votes kept her in office in 2022 despite a 9-point Republican advantage in CO-03. Republicans would be wise to find a strong Primary challenger.

(D) Adam Frisch (40%)
Frisch wasted no time in filing paperwork to run in 2024 after nearly pulling off the upset in 2022. But in a Presidential election year, the electorate will be very different.

 

 


CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
Buck is vulnerable to a real Primary challenger after years of accomplishing nothing and fighting obscure partisan battles.

 

 


CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)
Lamborn is a political zombie who seemingly can’t be killed, even in a Republican Primary. We don’t understand it, but he’s been safe since first winning this seat in 2006.

 

 


CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (90%)
Redistricting made CO-06 a very safe Democratic seat for the popular and well-respected Crow. He’ll likely be here until he decides to do something else.

 

 


CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen (80%)
Redistricting changed the makeup of a district that was represented for years by Ed Perlmutter, but Pettersen’s 15-point victory in 2022 should dissuade a serious challenge from Republicans.

 

 


CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(D) Yadira Caraveo (70%)
Things can change quickly in a new congressional district, as we saw in CO-07 in the early aughts. Republicans could put up a decent challenge in ’24, but first they’d have to find a plausible candidate; after a devastating ’22 cycle, the GOP bench is nonexistent.

 

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
In every recent cycle, we say that Democrats probably can’t do much to improve their majority…and then they win another seat or two. Democrats started 2022 with a 20-15 majority and ended with a 23-12 advantage.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans could have retaken the majority in 2022 by flipping just four seats. After spending a record amount of money, the GOP is now even further behind.

 

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (90%)
Democrats held an unprecedented 41-24 advantage after 2020. Now that majority is 46-19. At this rate, there will be zero Republicans in the State House by 2030 [note: we did not check this math].

REPUBLICANS (10%)
In 2022, we wrote here that capturing the majority would be a multi-cycle task for Republicans. After devastating election losses

 

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2024 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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