The Big Line: 2024

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2022 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: November 3, 2024

U.S. SENATE

(D) Michael Bennet* (80%)↑
Every public poll, even the most conservative ones, show Bennet well ahead of O’Dea.

(R) Joe O’Dea (20%)↓
The writing is on the wall. The fat lady is getting ready to sing. Pick your cliché.

GOVERNOR

(D) Jared Polis* (97%)↑
It’s not at all outside the realm of possibility that Polis could win re-election by 20 points.

(R) Hiedi Heidi Ganahl (3%)↓
Ganahl has completely abandoned reality now. This fits, since reality had already abandoned her.

(ACN) Danielle Neuschwanger (1%)
Republicans seem to be worried that Neuschwanger might pull votes from Ganahl, which could make the difference between a 19-point loss and a 20-point loss for the GOP nominee.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Phil Weiser* (75%)↑
Weiser is doing everything right, and national Republicans aren’t really trying to assist Kellner in the final weeks of the campaign.

(R) John Kellner (25%)↓
Kellner has a massive problem on abortion rights; his crime prevention message is backfiring; and his campaign is historically bad at following election laws. But other than that…

(U) Stanley Thorne (5%)
Thorne was nominated at the State GOP Assembly, but it turns out he wasn’t actually a registered Republican in Colorado. It’s still not clear that he is even legally able to practice law in Colorado.

STATE TREASURER

(D) Dave Young* (60%)
Young is unquestionably the better candidate, but this office is so low-profile that weird things could happen.

(R) Lang Sias (40%)
The only thing that Lang has learned from history is that Lang has learned nothing from history. Sias even seems to think that Young is more qualified.

SECRETARY OF STATE

(D) Jena Griswold* (65%)↑
Griswold has considerably more resources for her campaign than Anderson, and this is reflected in recent polling data.

(R) Pam Anderson (35%)↓
Anderson was always counting on outside money to propel her to victory. She got a little help there, but not nearly what she needed.

CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (100%)
DeGette easily dispatched another silly Primary challenger and will cruise to re-election.

CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (100%)
Put it this way: We’re not even bothering to learn the name of his GOP opponent.

CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (60%)↓
This district has such a strong Republican lean that it’s hard to believe Boebert could lose, but there are indicators of trouble everywhere.

(D) Adam Frisch (40%)↑
The outcome of this race will be less about Frisch and more about whether voters are sick and tired of Boebert’s relentless nonsense.

CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (95%)↑
Buck has done a hard pander with right-wing voters, which should be enough to ensure his re-election. The GOP voter registration advantage is overwhelming in this district.

(D) Ike McCorkle (5%)↓
This just isn’t a winnable district for Democrats in 2022.

CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (95%)↑
Ethics problems aren’t going away, and legal problems are thinning out his warchest. But Lamborn is a political zombie who seemingly can’t be killed.

(D) David Torres (5%)
If Lamborn was going to lose, it would have been in a Republican Primary.

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (100%)
Crow is very popular and is an excellent campaigner. This is a lock.

(R) Steven Monahan (0%)
What is a “Steven Monahan”?

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen (80%)↑
Pettersen has raised big money and is running a solid campaign. Her opponent…not so much.

(R) Erik Aadland (20%)↓
Aadland finally admitted that nobody is coming to help him. 

(D) Ed Perlmutter (OFF)
Perlmutter is hanging it up after a long career in Congress.

CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer (50%)
The Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade probably changed this race more than any other top contest in Colorado, but this is looking like a nail-biter.

(D) Yadira Caraveo (50%)
It’s hard to tell which way this race is leaning, but it is one of the top 10 most expensive House races in the country.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)↑
Democrats took control of the State Senate in 2018 and picked up another seat in 2020. State Sen. Kevin Priola’s recent switch to the Democratic Party really changed the math for Republicans.

REPUBLICANS (40%)↓
This was always thought to be the place where Republicans had the best chance of upsetting Democrats. It seems like a long shot now.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (90%)
Democrats earned their biggest House majority in decades in 2018, then kept things intact in 2020. There’s virtually no chance Republicans could flip enough seats in 2022.

REPUBLICANS (10%)
Capturing the majority here would be a multi-cycle task for the GOP. Colorado has changed significantly since Republicans last held a majority in the State House.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2022 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.