NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2020 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.
LAST UPDATE: July 1, 2020
PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)
(D) Joe Biden (75%)↑
Biden could win Colorado by 20 points. Really.
(R) Donald Trump* (25%)↓
June Primary showed Republicans turning against Trump en masse. No point for him to even campaign in Colorado.
(D) John Hickenlooper* (75%)↑
Republicans spent $2 million on pre-Primary attack ads, and Hickenlooper still defeated Andrew Romanoff by 20 points.
(R) Cory Gardner* (25%)↓
Gardner hit the 50% disapproval mark in May — twice — and is in very real danger of being written off altogether by national Republicans.
(D) Diana DeGette* (95%)↑
In January, DeGette will have served longer in Congress than any other politician in Colorado history.
(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat.
CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Lauren Boebert* (52%)↑
We’ll start Boebert’s run as the GOP nominee in the top spot for now, by virtue of the fact that CO-3 has been a reliable Republican seat for many years. But it would surprise nobody, including us, if “Yosemite Samantha” loses in November.
(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (48%)↑
Mitsch Bush wins Democratic Primary in dominating fashion and is now the more familiar name on the General Election ballot.
CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
If someone had run a Republican Primary against Buck, he might have lost. This district is probably too red to be a problem in November.
(D) Ike McCorkle* (20%)
McCorkle would need a lot of outside help to win here. It’s hard to see Democrats deciding to invest heavily here, especially given the new opportunity in CO-3.
CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
He’s arguably the dimmest bulb in Congress, but his ultra-conservative district doesn’t care.
(D) Jason Crow* (80%)↑
Crow became a national name after strong performance as one of seven House Impeachment Managers. In this district, in this state, in this year…he’s not going to lose.
(R) Steve House* (20%)↓
House is literally hoping to find enough poll watchers who will “count” some extra votes for him.
CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (95%)
Perlmutter will not lose in 2020. Period.
(R) Casper Stockham* (5%)
Since he moved from CO-6 to CO-7, Stockham can keep his campaign grift going for a few more months.
STATE SENATE MAJORITY
The 2018 Election was a nightmare for Republicans. This year, the June Primary showed that 2020 might be even worse. Democrats are pretty safe here.
Republicans need a net gain of two seats to take majority control, but there are a handful of GOP-held districts that they are in danger of losing.
STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
Democrats currently hold the biggest State House majority in decades — and it may actually grow in 2020.
The tone-deaf leadership of House Minority Leader Patrick Neville will ensure that Republicans don’t come close to gaining ground in 2020.
The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information.
Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.