The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning the General ElectionNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or widely presumed to be running.

LAST UPDATE: March 18, 2019

 

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Any Democrat With a Pulse (60%)↑
Democrats trounced Republicans in Colorado in 2018. This is a “blue state” now.

(R) Donald Trump* (40%)↓
President Trump wasn’t even on the ballot in Colorado in 2018, and look what happened.

 


U.S. SENATE

(R) Cory Gardner* (50%)↓
He’s the incumbent and he says he’s running. But a series of questionable moves only raises our suspicion that he might not stay in the race.

(D) Joe Neguse (40%)↑
Can another Democrat beat Neguse in a Primary Election? Unlikely.
Can Neguse beat Gardner in a General Election? Probably.

(D) Jason Crow (20%)
Crow ticks off a lot of boxes to be a top candidate, but he is not believed to be interested in this race.

(D) Andrew Romanoff (15%)
Romanoff is officially running. We’ve got him slightly ahead of Johnston for now.

(D) Mike Johnston (10%)↓
Johnston’s official announcement didn’t generate much buzz. Romanoff’s candidacy doesn’t help his cause.

(D) John Hickenlooper (10%)↓
Hick is running for President in 2020; his presumed lack of interest keeps him lower on this list.

(D) Alice Madden (10%)
Madden sounds likely to run; we explained her problems here.

(D) John Walsh (10%)
Former U.S. Attorney moving closer to running after long silence about future.

(D) Lorena Garcia* (5%)
Community activist is first Democrat to formally announce bid for 2020, but she has no realistic chance here.

(D) Trish Zornio* (2%)
The little-known Zornio has been running for this seat for more than a year. The fact that you probably don’t know this should explain plenty.

(D) Danielle Kombo* (0%)
If there is a path for Kombo, it just goes in a circle.

 

(D) Ed Perlmutter (OFF)
Doesn’t sound like he’s interested in this race.

(D) Crisanta Duran (OFF)
Duran will challenge Rep. Diana DeGette in CO-1 instead.


 

CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (70%)↓
DeGette’s biggest concern remains a strong Primary challenge…and here it comes.

(D) Crisanta Duran* (30%)
Serious challenge to DeGette was probably inevitable after big Democratic wins in House races in 2018.

 


CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat until redistricting.

 


CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Scott Tipton* (85%)↑
Tipton represents a district that is very much suited to him. His comfortable re-election in an otherwise Democratic year should give him plenty of space.

 


CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
Buck’s biggest concern is redistricting. He’s probably safe in 2020.

 


CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
As long as Lamborn can keep fending off Primary challengers, he’ll be here until he decides to do something else.

 


CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (60%)
Republicans who would once be licking their chops for this opportunity will be more wary after Crow’s 11-point victory over incumbent Mike Coffman.

 


CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)
Like most of the others on this list, Perlmutter’s greatest threat is also redistricting; he’s plenty safe in 2020.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
Democrats outperformed Republicans by every measurement in 2018.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
Right-wing candidates win Primary races in Colorado…but not General Election matchups.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats will hold 41 House seats in 2019, which is the biggest majority in decades.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Things can’t get much worse for Republicans. So, there’s that.

 

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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