The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning the General ElectionNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or widely presumed to be running.

LAST UPDATE: December 14, 2018

 

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Any Democrat With a Pulse (60%)↑
Democrats trounced Republicans in Colorado in 2018. This is a “blue state” now.

(R) Donald Trump* (40%)↓
President Trump wasn’t even on the ballot in Colorado in 2018, and look what happened.

 


U.S. SENATE

(R) Cory Gardner* (50%)↓
Gardner gets to start here because he’s an incumbent, but we wouldn’t at all be surprised if his name isn’t even on the ballot in 2020.

(D) Ed Perlmutter (30%)
The longtime Jefferson County Congressman is the obvious first name to consider, though Perlmutter’s brief 2018 gubernatorial run might mean he’s not interested in a statewide race.

(D) Joe Neguse/Jason Crow (20%)
Either freshman Congressman could be an intriguing statewide candidate.

(D) Mike Johnston (10%)
Johnston appears to be moving toward running. He has proven that he can raise money, but his third place finish in 2018 Democratic gubernatorial race hints at a short ceiling.

(D) Andrew Romanoff (10%)
Former House Speaker and failed candidate for Senate (2010) and Congress (2014) apparently wants to give it another try in 2020.

(D) John Hickenlooper (10%)↓
Hick is running for President in 2020; his presumed lack of interest keeps him lower on this list.

(D) Crisanta Duran (5%)
Outgoing State House Speaker is certainly interested. The feeling may not be mutual among many Democrats outside of Duran’s Denver-centric base.

(D) Lorena Garcia* (5%)
Community activist is first Democrat to formally announce bid for 2020, but she has no realistic chance here.

(D) Trish Zornio (2%)
The little-known Zornio has been running for this seat for more than a year. The fact that you probably don’t know this should explain plenty.

 


 

CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (90%)
DeGette’s biggest concern remains a strong Primary challenge.

 


CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat until redistricting.

 


CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Scott Tipton* (85%)↑
Tipton represents a district that is very much suited to him. His comfortable re-election in an otherwise Democratic year should give him plenty of space.

 


CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
Buck’s biggest concern is redistricting. He’s probably safe in 2020.

 


CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
As long as Lamborn can keep fending off Primary challengers, he’ll be here until he decides to do something else.

 


CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (60%)
Republicans who would once be licking their chops for this opportunity will be more wary after Crow’s 11-point victory over incumbent Mike Coffman.

 


CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)
Like most of the others on this list, Perlmutter’s greatest threat is also redistricting; he’s plenty safe in 2020.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
Democrats outperformed Republicans by every measurement in 2018.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
Right-wing candidates win Primary races in Colorado…but not General Election matchups.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats will hold 41 House seats in 2019, which is the biggest majority in decades.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Things can’t get much worse for Republicans. So, there’s that.

 

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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